The Long-Term Effects of Protestantism

Posted: September 4, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Originally posted on Cherokee Gothic:

I just came across a couple of interesting new working papers on the historical effects of Protestantism.  The first builds on Robert Woodberry’s work on the effect of the printing press in Sub-Saharan Africa. In “The LongTerm Effects of the Printing Press in SubSaharan Africa,” Julia Cage and Valeria Rueda find “that, within regions located close to missions, proximity to a printing press significantly increases newspaper readership today” and that there is “a strong association between proximity to a printing press and contemporary economic development.”

Rossella Calvi and Federico Mantovanelli, in a paper titled “Long-Term Effects of Access to Health Care: Medical Missions in Colonial India” also find some positive long-term effects of Protestant missions, but this time in India.  They show that “a 50% reduction in the distance from a historical medical facility increases current individuals’ body mass index by 0.4.”  The path dependence “is not driven…

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Denmark’s U-Turn On Climate Targets

Posted: September 4, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/denmark-s-government-readies-u-turn-on-ambitious-climate-targets

From Bloomberg:

Denmark’s widening budget deficit is forcing its policy makers to take some hard decisions in the very area where they are considered global role models: the fight against climate change.

Denmark’s Liberal government is to reverse ambitious CO2 emission targets introduced by the previous administration. It will also drop plans to phase out coal-fired power plants and become fossil-fuel free by 2050, according to leaked documents first reported by newspaper Information.

The news about Denmark’s cost-cutting measures, which also include a reduction in green funding initiatives worth 340 million kroner ($51.5 million) through 2019, came on the same day on which U.S. President Barack Obama issued a global appeal for urgent action in the buildup to a United Nations summit in Paris in December.

Danish Finance Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen said growing pressure on the country’s public finances means the government needs to prioritize.

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Why are Psychological findings mostly unreplicable?

Posted: September 4, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Originally posted on BRAIN'S IDEA:

Take 97 psychological effects from top journals which are claimed to be robust. How many will replicate? Brian Nosek and his huge team tried it out and the results were sobering, to say the least. How did we get here? The data give some clues.

Sometimes the title of a paper just sounds incredible. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. No one had ever systematically, empirically investigated this for any science. Doing so would require huge resources. The countless authors on this paper which appeared in Science last week went to great lengths to try anyway and their findings are worrying.

When they tried to replicate 97 statistically significant effects with 92% power (i.e. a nominal 92% chance of finding the effect should it exist as claimed by the original discoverers), 89 stastically significant effect should pop up. Only 35 did. Why weren’t 54 more studies replicated?

The team behind…

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Originally posted on My Garden Pond:

Earlier this year I was invited to review Nicholas Stern’s new book, Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change (MIT Press, 2015), for the Journal of Economic Psychology.

The published version of my book review can be viewed for free until mid-October 2015, and a manuscript version is here.

In Why Are We Waiting? (a follow-up to his well known Review of 2006), Nicholas Stern assembles scientific, moral and economic arguments that rapid and radical reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, and wonders why progress is so slow.

Stern book cover

In my review, as I summarise in this post, I criticise Stern’s book for selective use of evidence, over-optimism regarding the co-benefits of climate policy (for instance for public health), and no discussion of the risks of climate policy (as opposed to the…

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Jim Rose:

What was she thinking when she set up her own server

Originally posted on JONATHAN TURLEY:

170px-Msc2011_dett-clinton_029816-28The former aide that helped set up the private email server used by Hillary Rodham Clinton will, according to the New York Times, invoke his Fifth Amendment right to remain silent to avoid self-incrimination before the congressional committee investigating the matter. Bryan Pagliano worked for Clinton in her failed presidential campaign in 2008. He was then brought into the State Department and helped her create a server separate from the secured State Department system so she could control her own emails. If this news was not bad enough, the Washington Post is reporting that Clinton herself wrote and transmitted classified emails on her unsecured server. If that is not bad enough, Fox News is reporting that Clinton staff members may have changed classified markings on documents to hide their classified status.

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Jim Rose:

Main reason company puts in expats in poor countries is they can trust them to expose mischief

Originally posted on :

I know I’m belaboring these now, but I’m learning a lot from all the people writing in to add points and arguments to my Myth of the Ethical Shopper article. Here’s one from Glen, a project manager at a contract manufacturer in Shenzhen:

Awareness is the first step, and this article does an excellent job of pointing out that contract manufacturing will always result in unfair labor practices. The smaller companies are the biggest offenders because their order sizes don’t warrant the attention of “golden factories”. Not that Apple and Wal-Mart are good examples, but their manufacturing is some of the cleanest out there… After working for a contract manufacturer in China for several years, I can give you a quick glimpse of how it looks in China in relation to this article:

1) Wal-Mart gets caught with unfair labor practices > people protest > Policy reform

These reforms are…

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Image  —  Posted: September 3, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Sex ratios as if not everyone is a college graduate

Posted: September 3, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Originally posted on Family Inequality:

Quick: What percentage of 22-to-29-year-old, never-married Americans are college graduates? Not sure? Just look around at your friends and colleagues.

Actually, unlike among your friends and colleagues, the figure is only 27.5% (as of 2010). Yep, barely more than a quarter of singles in their 20s have finished college. Or, as the headlines for the last few days would have it: basically everyone.

The tweeted version of this Washington PostWonkblog story was, “Why dating in America is completely unfair,” and the figure was titled “Best U.S. cities for dating” (subtitle: “based on college graduates ages 22-29”). This local news version listed “best U.S. cities for dating,” but never even said they were talking about college graduates only. The empirical point is simple: there are more women than men among young college graduates, so those women have a small pool to choose from, so we presume it’s hard for them to date.* (Also, in these stories everyone…

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Originally posted on Real Science:

Forty years ago, scientists blamed extreme weather on global cooling and expanding Arctic ice. Now they blame extreme weather on global warming and shrinking Arctic ice.

ScreenHunter_2837 Sep. 02 04.05

16 May 1974 – LIFE STYLE TAKING POINT Disappearance revives lo…

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Wood burners ‘worse than cars’ for contaminating air

Posted: September 2, 2015 by Jim Rose in economics

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

h/t Jim Climie

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The wood stove, so beloved by greenies because it will save us all from global warming! The government is even throwing millions of pounds in subsidies at them to encourage us to have them installed.

Unfortunately their new found popularity has meant that more wood is now being burnt from British woods than at any time since the industrial revolution, with the resultant impact on our forests.

Now it appears that they are not as good for us as we were led to believe:

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