How can prison numbers be too high? There are unsolved crimes: murders, robberies, sexual assaults and burglaries to name a few.
There are people out there who should have been arrested, convicted and sent to prison for serious crimes. Many of them are repeat offenders and career criminals.
I have never understood the reasoning behind the notion that prison numbers are too high.
Concerns about prison numbers being too high is exclusively a concern about the criminals who were sent to prison. Their victims are never mentioned nor are victims of unsolved crime who have been denied justice.
There is an economic literature on the efficient level of crime. Those that are concerned about prison numbers being too high explicitly reject the economics of crime literature for the purpose of framing public policy about criminal justice. The reason is obvious from this passage by David Friedman:
The economic analysis of crime starts with one simple assumption: Criminals are rational.
A mugger is a mugger for the same reason I am a professor-because that profession makes him better off, by his own standards, than any other alternative available to him.
Here, as elsewhere in economics, the assumption of rationality does not imply that muggers (or economics professors) calculate the costs and benefits of available alternatives to seventeen decimal places-merely that they tend to choose the one that best achieves their objectives.
If muggers are rational, we do not have to make mugging impossible in order to prevent it, merely unprofitable.
If the benefits of a profession decrease or its costs increase, fewer people will enter it-whether the profession is plumbing or burglary.
If little old ladies start carrying pistols in their purses, so that one mugging in ten puts the mugger in the hospital or the morgue, the number of muggers will decrease drastically-not because they have all been shot but because most will have switched to safer ways of making a living.
If mugging becomes sufficiently unprofitable, nobody will do it.
Putting more offenders in prison should decrease crime by both incapacitating incarcerated offenders and deterring potential offenders.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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