The great RCT bubble of 2013?

Kevin's avatarCherokee Gothic

Check out this awesome blogpost where Lant Pritchett cogently argues that Randomized Control Trials are nearing “peak hype”:

 I think there is little question that randomized techniques were underutilized in development practice and research in 1993.  I also think there is little question that in 2013 RCTs are now in an overvaluation bubble and nearing the Peak of Inflated Expectations.  (Of course one of the true signs of the peak of a bubble is the increasing vehemence with which people who invested their financial and human capital into the bubble deny that it is a bubble).    

At a World Bank Symposium on Assessment for Global Learning  last week Jishnu Das estimated there are in the neighborhood of 500 evaluations of education interventions underway at a cost of between 200K and 500K each.  Assuming a typical cost of 300K this is $150 million dollars being spent on RCTs…

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Turkey’s Baffling Coup and why India never had a military dictatorship..

Amol Agrawal's avatarMostly Economics

Last week saw yet another attempt to dethrone democracy in Turkey (it was more a case of demagoguery than democracy). There have been a quite a few already in its recent history. TYe government even tried to make Turkey coup-proof in 2006 which obviously did not work! But this recent one was baffling and amateurish at its best.

Dani Rodrik explains his bafflement:

Military coups – successful or otherwise – follow a predictable pattern in Turkey. Political groups – typically Islamists – deemed by soldiers to be antagonistic to Kemal Atatürk’s vision of a secular Turkey gain increasing power. Tensions rise, often accompanied by violence on the streets. Then the military steps in, exercising what the soldiers claim is their constitutional power to restore order and secular principles.

This time, it was very different. Thanks to a series of sham trials targeting secularist officers, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had managed to…

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The Italian bank crisis – the one graph version

Lars Christensen's avatarThe Market Monetarist

Today I was interviewed by a Danish journalist about the Italian banking crisis (read the interview here). He asked me a very good question that I think is highly relevant for understanding not only the Italian banking crisis, but the Great Recession in general.

The question was: “Lars, why is there an Italian banking crisis – after all they did NOT have a property markets bubble?”

That – my regular readers will realise – made me very happy because I could answer that the crisis had little to do with what happened before 2008 and rather was about monetary policy failure and in the case of the euro zone also why it is not an optimal currency area.

Said, in another way I repeated my view that the Italian banking crisis essentially is a consequence of too weak nominal GDP growth in Italy. As a consequence of Italy’s structural problems…

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Rather close to the bone on multiculturalism

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The Euro – Monetary Strangulation continues (one year on)

Lars Christensen's avatarThe Market Monetarist

Exactly one year ago today I was with the family in the Christensen vacation home in Skåne (Southern Sweden) and posted a blog post titled The Euro – A Monetary Strangulation Mechanism. I wrote that post partly out of frustration that the crisis in the euro once again had re-escalated as Greece fell deeply into political crisis.

One year on the euro zone is once again in crisis – this time the focal point it the Italian banking sector.

So it seems like little has changed over the past year. After nearly eight years of crisis the euro zone has still not really recovered.

In my post a year ago I showed a graph with the growth of real GDP from 2007 to 2015 in 31 different European countries – both countries with floating exchange rates and countries within the euro areas and countries pegged to the euro (Bulgaria…

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Minnie Riperton sings Lovin’ You for the last time April 17, 1979

Scared Straight or Scared to Death? The Effect of Risk Beliefs on Risky Behaviors

Jason Kerwin's avatarCeteris Non Paribus

Longtime readers of this blog (or anyone who has talked to me in the past few years) know that I have been working on a paper on risk compensation and HIV. Risk compensation typically means that when an activity becomes more dangerous, people do less of it. If the risk becomes sufficiently high, however, the rational response can be to take more risks instead of fewer, a pattern called “rational fatalism”. This happens because increased risks affect not only the danger of additional acts, but also the chance that you have already contracted HIV based on past exposures. While HIV testing appears to mitigate this problem, by resolving people’s HIV status, a similar logic applies for unavoidable exposures in the future; HIV testing cannot do anything about the sense that you will definitely contract the virus in the future. I test this model used a randomized field experiment in Malawi…

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How to Deal with Stupid: Part 1/10 – Defining Stupid

RiskMonger's avatarThe Risk-Monger

This article was originally published on 20 November 2015 and is republished as part of the RM site update. I will finish the series by the end of the summer and hopefully have the book: Science in the Age of Stupid published early in 2017.

See the French translation

The following is Part 1 of a ten-part blog on governance to be serialised over the holidays. Today our personal decision-making process is strongly influenced by the latest social media applications yet EU and American government policy mechanisms, developed in the last century, have not been adapted to these communications tools. This discrepancy has created opportunities for less-scrupulous activists to abuse the process, converting positions lacking in proper evidence and rationality into victories or disruptions in the regulatory arena. In other words, these campaigners have been able to turn “stupid” into policy. This series: How to Deal with Stupid, essentially a policy pamphlet…

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Saving The Planet Is Harder Than you Thought!

Russian cops don’t mess about.

https://twitter.com/Crashingtv/status/750165066159357952

% US top incomes from wages, salaries and pensions, 1913 – 2015,

The rich in the USA long ago became a working rich; most top incomes are from wages and salaries.

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Source: The World Wealth and Income Database.

Percentage of marriages that ends in divorce

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Source: Percentage of marriages that ends in divorce – Vivid Maps.

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