New version : Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis

Franck Portier's avatar~

I have posted on my “current work” page a (very) updated version of a  paper with Paul Beaudry  and Dana Galizia “Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis“. As written in the abstract,

Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present new evidence in favor of the second interpretation and, most importantly, we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer to this question. In particular, when adopting our most preferred estimation framework, we find support for the somewhat extreme notion that business cycles may be generated by stochastic limit cycle forces; that is, we find support for the notion that business cycles may primarily reflect an endogenous propagation mechanism buffeted only by temporary shocks. The three elements that tend to favor…

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Behavioural economics RIP

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David Friedman at Libertopia 2010 on Future Imperfect

New York Times tells Democrats how to regain the White House

whyevolutionistrue's avatarWhy Evolution Is True

All of us who identify as Democrats or liberals are biting our nails about this November’s elections. Can Trump possibly win again? I go back and forth on this, but lately am more optimistic that, because of the impeachment proceedings and Trump’s unhinged behavior about Iran and international affairs in general, the Democrats have a good shot at getting the White House this year—and maybe even (but probably not) the Senate. I’m confident they’ll keep the House of Representatives, but of course the Presidency is also important in a way that the Congress is not: the Prez chooses Supreme Court nominees, and if the nominees are young their influence could last decades—or longer. And we all know that Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a left-leaning Justice, probably won’t keep her seat through another Trump administration. The brave woman is hanging in there, but she’s made of flesh.

The article below, by two…

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THE Great Global Warming “Pause”

Jamie Spry's avatarClimatism

THE Great Global Warming Pause - CLIMATISM


BETWEEN the start of 1997 and the end of 2014, average global surface temperature stalled. This 18-year period is known as the global warming “pause” or “hiatus” and has been the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

THE rise in global temperatures that alarmed climate campaigners in the 1990’s had slowed so much that the trend was no longer statistically significant. This despite one-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution occurring since February 1997.

THE pause took a pause during the 2015/16 super El Niño which was the strongest such event in recorded history and helped to make 2015 and 2016 the warmest years in the modern warm period. However, 2017 witnessed the biggest drop in global temps in recorded history, seen across most data sets, bringing temps back inline with 1997-2014 averages, rendering “the pause” alive and well, to date.

THERE…

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Gallery

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Cassie Watson's avatarLegal History Miscellany

By Cassie Watson; posted 11 December 2019.

As the current election campaign draws to a close amid increasingly shrill claims and counterclaims, I am reminded of a saying that, while common today, appears to have originated around the time of a much earlier election campaign.[1] In early July 1892 remarks made by “Mr Balfour” — presumably Arthur Balfour MP (1848–1930), then Leader of the House of Commons — were cited by fellow Tories in relation to the three categories of untruths alleged to be inherent in Gladstonian speeches about Irish Home Rule: “lies, damned lies, and statistics.”[2] While the possibility of (another) minority government is one route to pursue regarding this observation,[3] I am more interested in the statistics part of Balfour’s quotation, as the collection, analysis and interpretation of historical data are among the main methodologies utilised by criminal justice historians. The saying itself is now…

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This date in history: January 6,1540. Marriage of Anne of Cleves and King Henry VIII of England.

liamfoley63's avatarEuropean Royal History

Anne of Cleves (1515 – 16 July 1557) was queen consort of England from January 6 to July 9, 1540 as the fourth wife of King Henry VIII.

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Anne was born in 1515, on either September 22, or more probably June 28. She was born in Düsseldorf, the second daughter of Johann III of the House of La Marck, Duke of Jüliich-Cleves, and Berg. Johann III was also Count of Mark, and Ravensberg. Johann held the titles Duke of Jüliich, Berg and Count of Ravensberg jure uxoris which means by right of his wife Maria, Duchess of Julich-Berg (1491–1543).

Anne’s mother Maria of Jülich-Berg (August 3, 1491 – August 29, 1543) was born in Jülich, the daughter of Wilhelm IV, Duke of Jülich-Berg and Sibylle of Brandenburg, a daughter of Elector Albrecht III Achilles of Brandenburg (1414–1486) from his second marriage to Anna (1436–1512), daughter of the Elector Friedrich II…

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Why Australia Won’t Shut Its Coal Industry

How did life survive in the Snowball Earth? Scientists might have cracked the mystery

oldbrew's avatarTallbloke's Talkshop


The researchers do admit that ‘Snowball Earth is just a hypothesis’, but that period seems to have been an era of the most extreme long-term cold spell(s) ever detected on Earth.

There is very little life in Arctic tundras and glaciers. However that was the situation in a big portion of the world during Ice Ages, says Technology.org.

How did life survive these difficult periods? How didn’t everything just die, being cut off from any kind of sources of nutrition and oxygen?

Scientists examined the chemistry of the iron formations in Australia, Namibia, and California to get a window into the environmental conditions during the ice age. They selected rocks left there by the ice age, because they are representative of the conditions during that difficult period for life.

By analysing these rocks scientists from the McGill University were able to estimate the amount of oxygen in the…

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New Year tosh on law order – a bill to enable the Parole Board to do something it can do already

Bob Edlin's avatarPoint of Order

Hamilton West MP Tim Macindoe apparently has spent some of his Christmas holiday time thinking about law and order and how to make us safer in our beds.  Let’s hope he comes up with some brighter ideas than the one he announced in a press statement yesterday.

The statement announced he has lodged a private member’s bill crafted – it seems – to ensure convicted murderers who won’t reveal the location of their victim’s bodies will be denied parole.

Macindoe explains:

“An important part of coming to terms with the death of a loved one is the closure of bringing their body home. Sadly, there are some offenders who refuse to disclose where the bodies of their victims are.

“This adds considerably to the distress of relatives who sometimes spend a lifetime agonising over what might have happened, and their inability to hold a funeral and lay their family member…

View original post 680 more words

Oppose the new terrorism law – Say No to Control Orders

Fair enough critique except for the defence of terrorists in the Phillipines.

aucklandpeaceaction's avatarAuckland Peace Action

The government is seeking to rush through new terrorism legislation – they have given just FOUR days for the public to make submissions. This rushed process is a serious violation of democratic process, and the law is unnecessary.

MAKE A SUBMISSION

We are encouraging people to make a brief submission to Parliament opposing the Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill for the following reasons

Here are some points you can make in your submission:

  1. The government is rushing through legislation, curtailing public input into legislation that severely restricts human rights including right to freedom of movement and fair trial rights.
  2. The government says control orders are necessary because the existing Terrrosim Suppression Act (TSA) may be unable to secure a prosecution. The government was told 11 years ago that the TSA needed significant changes. Thus far, neither a Labour nor National-party led government has sought to address this. Now it is…

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Lucas on optimal capital taxes

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Deranged & Delusional: Victorian Government Claims Wind & Solar More Reliable Than Fossil Fuels

stopthesethings's avatarSTOP THESE THINGS

Dan and Lily: derangement meets delusion.

Victorians can thank their dangerous and delusional Labor government for their power pricing and supply calamity.

Last summer saw mass blackouts and load shedding, following sudden, routine and total collapses in wind and solar output (calm weather and sunset does it every time).

Back then its Premier, Daniel Andrews and Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio made the risible claim that its (no) power woes were all down to the ‘unreliability’ of Victoria’s coal-fired power plants.

With retail power prices at record highs and more mass blackouts looming, this pair of lunatics continue to maintain the rage at Victoria’s so-called ‘ageing’ coal-fired plants.

War of words as energy crisis heats up
The Australian
Rachel Baxendale
20 December 2019

A leading energy market expert has dismissed Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’s claim renewable energy is “more reliable” than coal-fired power, saying the state’s key problem­ is a…

View original post 1,106 more words

Sargent on modern monetary theory

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David Friedman | Lessons from Legal Systems Different From Ours | VISION WEEKEND 2019

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