By Inti Pacheco of The WSJ. Excerpts:”Behind the jump: Extreme weather, including droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, had hit coffee crops. And even before any tariff increases, hedge-fund bets anticipating the levies were pushing commodity prices higher.” (droughts cause supply to shift to the left which raises price)”Then in July, President Trump slapped an additional 40%…
Why the Cost of Your Coffee Has Soared—and Isn’t Going Down Soon
Why the Cost of Your Coffee Has Soared—and Isn’t Going Down Soon
21 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, international economics, politics - USA Tags: tarrifs
Incentives matter, Mexican cartel edition
16 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economics of crime, economics of regulation, law and economics, transport economics, urban economics Tags: Mexico
But the cartel’s interests may prove just as important to security as government efforts, according to a dozen local and state officials and security experts. The CJNG has much to gain from the regional economic boost of a successful tournament in Guadalajara — akin to its administrative headquarters — and much to lose from drawing…
Incentives matter, Mexican cartel edition
Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
13 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, labour economics, labour supply Tags: economics of immigration
We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run…
Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
Javier Milei Week, Part VII: What Is the Left Saying?
30 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economic growth, growth disasters, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: Argentina
Before the 2023 presidential election in Argentina, 108 left-leaning economists released a letter warning that Javier Milei’s “economic proposals…are fraught with risks that make them potentially very harmful for the Argentine economy.” Voters ignored those warnings and elected Milei. And the 108 lefty economists – including class-warfare ideologues such as Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman – wound up with […]
Javier Milei Week, Part VII: What Is the Left Saying?
Javier Milei Week, Part VI: Continuing Challenges
28 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, macroeconomics Tags: Argentina
I began this series by reviewing the terrible shape of the Argentinian economy when Javier Milei took over at the end of 2023. I then wrote four columns (here, here, here, and here) on the steps that Milei has taken to restore prosperity. The good news is that his reforms have produced very good results. […]
Javier Milei Week, Part VI: Continuing Challenges
Wealth Is Not a Fixed Pie
27 Mar 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, behavioural economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles
One of the most destructive myths in economics is the zero-sum fallacy. Back in 2018, I shared a cartoon that sought to debunk the notion that one person getting richer meant another person had to be poorer. But I wasn’t satisfied with the cartoon, so I offered a modified version. But I still didn’t think […]
Wealth Is Not a Fixed Pie
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
27 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, growth disasters, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina
I’ve been participating in a conference in Argentina this week on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” Part I reviewed the horrible economic conditions that plagued Argentina when Javier Milei took office. Part II looked at Milei’s spending restraint and some of the subsequent improvements in fiscal outcomes. Part III examined Milei’s remarkable progress with regards to […]
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
Defining Socialism
26 Mar 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, economic history, economics of regulation, history of economic thought, liberalism, Marxist economics
I’ve written a four-part series (here, here, here, and here) explaining why socialism is a bad idea, but let’s use today’s column to define this evil ideology. As I mentioned in the video, genuine socialism is based on three very specific concepts. Government ownership of the means of production Central planning to determine the allocation […]
Defining Socialism
The rise of China as a global innovator in pharma (incentives matter)
26 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, entrepreneurship, growth miracles, health economics Tags: drug lags
This paper examines China’s transition from pharmaceutical “free rider” to global innovator over the last decade. In 2010, China accounted for less than 8% of global clinical trials; by 2020, it had surpassed the US in annual registered clinical trial volume. To study this transformation, we compile a comprehensive, synchronized database spanning the pharmaceutical drug…
The rise of China as a global innovator in pharma (incentives matter)
Javier Milei Week, Part IV: Argentina’s Pre-2023 Descent into Protectionism
26 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, industrial organisation, international economics, survivor principle Tags: Argentina
Last year, as part of a series on the additional reforms Milei needs to enact in Argentina, I shared this video on reducing protectionism. Since the video was only one-minute long, there was no chance to provide details. But at the conference in Buenos Aires this week, Professor Jorge Streb shared some fascinating details on […]
Javier Milei Week, Part IV: Argentina’s Pre-2023 Descent into Protectionism
Javier Milei Week, Part III: Good Economic Policies, Good Economic Results
25 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, development economics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, growth disasters, Public Choice Tags: Argentina
Part I of this series reviewed the horrible economic conditions that plagued Argentina when Javier Milei took office. Part II looked at Milei’s spending restraint and some of the subsequent improvements in fiscal outcomes. For today’s column, let’s focus on what Milei has achieved in areas other than fiscal policy, and it will be based […]
Javier Milei Week, Part III: Good Economic Policies, Good Economic Results
Javier Milei Week, Part II: Good Fiscal Policies, Good Fiscal Results
24 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, development economics, economic history, fiscal policy, growth disasters, macroeconomics Tags: Argentina
Part I of this series focused on the horrible economic conditions that led to Javier Milei’s election in late 2023. For Part II, let’s start with this segment from an interview I did last week while in Slovenia. In less than two minutes, I tried to summarize Milei’s achievements. Let’s take a more detailed look, […]
Javier Milei Week, Part II: Good Fiscal Policies, Good Fiscal Results
Javier Milei Week, Part I: Inheriting an Economic Crisis
23 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: Argentina
Given my enthusiasm for Javier Milei and his libertarian reforms, I’m excited to be in Buenos Aires for a week-long program on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” This means a heavy does of Milei-ism this week. For today’s column, I’m going to share some slides from a presentation by Alejandro Rodriguez on the “Inheritance” Milei […]
Javier Milei Week, Part I: Inheriting an Economic Crisis
Some simple spatial analytics of Cape Town
21 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economics of regulation, growth disasters, transport economics, urban economics Tags: South Africa
Rio de Janeiro let its hillsides be filled in with lower-cost dwellings. The result was a significant increase in the crime rate. On the more positive side of the ledger, upward mobility increased too. If you live in a decent favela, you can get to a downtown job with not too much difficulty, albeit with…
Some simple spatial analytics of Cape Town
‘Ever-wrong Ehrlich’s’ Greatest Hits (er, misses)
18 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, environmentalism, growth disasters, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: pessimism bias, population bomb, population bust
His famous 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” changed the world. He famously predicted that human “overpopulation” would soon outstrip food supplies, leading to catastrophic famines, and societal collapse. He predicted that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the 1970s and 1980s, that India would be unable to feed its population by 1980, and…
‘Ever-wrong Ehrlich’s’ Greatest Hits (er, misses)
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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