From Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick: As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236…
The Economics of a Shrinking World
The Economics of a Shrinking World
27 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, population economics
The Great Enrichment
23 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, liberalism, Marxist economics Tags: The Great Enrichment
Why Papua New Guinea is so interesting
18 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters Tags: PNG
And this leads to the most interesting part of this story: how the highlanders were so isolated for so long. I want to acknowledge that the highlanders were not completely, hermetically sealed off from the outside world – it’s just that knowledge of outside world never actually made it to them or vice versa. Over…
Why Papua New Guinea is so interesting
The Growth of Big Business: 1900-2020
18 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, econometerics, economic history, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
Big firms are playing a larger role in the US economy–but also in the economies of high-income countries around the world. Yueran Ma, Mengdi Zhang, and Kaspar Zimmermann compile the evidence in “Business Concentration Around the World: 1900-2020” (University of Chicago Becker-Friedman Institute for Economics, February 27, 2026, the link offers a readable overview and a followup link…
The Growth of Big Business: 1900-2020
Slow Growth: Mexico Edition
16 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, growth disasters, industrial organisation, law and economics, property rights, survivor principle Tags: Mexico
For the last eight years or so, going back before the pandemic, Mexico’s economy has been growing at 1% per year or less, which is barely faster than the population of Mexico has been growing. It is a fact of arithmetic that an upper-middle-income country, as Mexico is classified by the World Bank, will not…
Slow Growth: Mexico Edition
Why Pakistani Politicians End Up in Jail
04 Sep 2026 1 Comment
in development economics, economic history, economics of crime, growth disasters, law and economics Tags: Pakistan
Pakistan has a remarkable political history. Prime ministers and presidents do not merely lose elections or retire from public life. They have repeatedly been arrested, imprisoned, disqualified from office, forced into exile or, in the most extreme case, executed. The temptation is to conclude that Pakistani politicians must simply be unusually corrupt. Corruption is certainly […]
Why Pakistani Politicians End Up in Jail
After US Defeat: Vietnam and Afghanistan
04 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in defence economics, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, industrial organisation, Marxist economics, war and peace Tags: Afghanistan, Vietnam
The American defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan are often compared as military and foreign-policy failures. But there is another comparison that matters at least as much: what happened to the people left behind after the Americans departed? If we put aside the destruction caused during the wars themselves and concentrate on their aftermaths, an important difference […]
After US Defeat: Vietnam and Afghanistan
The Milei Miracle, Part V
02 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, growth disasters, growth miracles, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics Tags: Argentina
The world’s worst-performing economy for 100 years has – in a remarkably short period of time – become an amazing case study of economic liberalization. Thanks to President Javier Milei, Argentina is now enjoying an economic miracle. In Part V of this series (previous versions here, here, here, and here), we’re going to illustrate Milei’s […]
The Milei Miracle, Part V
Can Chile Once Again Become the Latin Tiger?
30 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth miracles, history of economic thought, macroeconomics Tags: Chile
In 2012, I wrote that pro-market reforms had turned Chile into the Latin Tiger. But two years later, in 2014, I wrote a column fretting that a recently elected left-leaning government was going to undermine prosperity. Based on the Maddison data, my concerns were justified. The country’s economic performance can be divided into three periods. […]
Can Chile Once Again Become the Latin Tiger?
Fidel Castro: Human Garbage
22 Aug 2026 1 Comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: Cuba, regressive left
I’ve written many columns documenting Cuba’s economic misery. Probably the most-persuasive evidence that socialism has failed in that country is the chart showing how Cuba has fallen behind other (very similar) countries ever since Fidel Castro took over more than six decades ago. Though I’ve always thought the most-damning visual came from the Economist, which […]
Fidel Castro: Human Garbage
The Confucian fertility paradox
21 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, population economics
Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal…
The Confucian fertility paradox
Incentive Misalignment in Communism: the case of Vietnam
15 Aug 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, Marxist economics Tags: economics of central planning, Vietnam
Rainer Zitelmann writes in How Capitalism Beat Communism in Vietnam in Reason Magazine, The state collectives did not reward members for the amount of rice they produced, but instead counted how many days they had worked. 183 more words
Incentive Misalignment in Communism: the case of Vietnam
Further progress in South America
08 Aug 2026 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: The Great Escape
The share of people who are hungry has been decreasing faster in South America than anywhere else in the world. It is down by one-third since 2020, according to a report published on July 21st by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Just 3.5% of people in the region consume insufficient calories, the lowest…
Further progress in South America
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