Whoever is equating global warming with the risk of thermonuclear war and the Cold War either wasn’t around or wasn’t paying attention to world politics prior to 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The global mean surface temperature is always changing. Over the past 60 years, it has both decreased and increased.
For the past century, it has probably increased by about 0.6 degrees Centigrade (C). That is to say, we have had some global mean warming.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas and its increase should contribute to warming. It is, in fact, increasing, and a doubling would increase the radiative forcing of the earth (mainly due to water vapour and clouds) by about 2 per cent.
There is good evidence that man has been responsible for the recent increase in CO2, though climate itself (as well as other natural phenomena) can also cause changes in CO2.
To this extent, and no further, Linden was it is legitimate to speak of a scientific consensus. He later ended noting a disconnect where: • The fact that there is widespread and even rigorous scientific agreement that complete adherence to the Kyoto Agreement would have no discernible impact on climate. • This clearly is of no importance to the thousands of negotiators, diplomats, regulators, general purpose bureaucrats and advocates attached to this issue.
There are a lot of stunts in environmental politics: • Clinton signed the Kyoto protocol in 1997 but never submitted it to the Senate. Does that 801 days of inaction on the great moral issue of our time leave him steeped in moral turpitude? • Did Obama ever submit the Kyoto protocol to the senate? Does that leave him steeped in moral turpitude?
Yet our climate conversation has been dominated by end-of-the-world thinking that bears no relation to the measured language of the IPCC.
While panic is a great way to raise awareness and win votes, it is a terrible starting point for making smart policies.
The best known scare story is Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth, which was all the rage seven years ago.
Remember where he showed us how a sea-level rise of almost seven metres would inundate Holland, Bangladesh and Florida? Yes, it was terrifying. Yes, it had a huge impact. No, it had no basis in reality.
You may have noticed that the title of this post promised five modes of engagement and I’ve only described four.
There is a fifth, what I call the Stealth Issue Advocate. This role is characterized by the expert who seeks to hide his/her advocacy behind a facade of science, either pure scientist or science arbiter.
This role seeks to swim in a sea of politics without getting wet. It is the fastest route to pathologically politicizing science. It is also what gives scientists as advocates a bad name.
Biologists spent great effort over many decades to rebut creation science is a cold methodical manner designed to change minds through facts and reasoned arguments. Insults and conceit give peoples excuses to not listen.
Labels like denier and alarmist are not conducive for scientists to change their minds or decide they were right in the first place, and that such unpleasantness encourages many to choose other careers or fields of study.
It is better to ask your interlocutor to think more deeply about this or that point that is in debate. Look for common ground that already exists and for a growing number of important anomalies and puzzles their current way of thinking cannot explain. Knowledge grows through critical discussion, not by consensus and agreement.
J.S. Mill pointed out that critics who are totally wrong still add value because they keep you on your toes and sharpened both your argument and the communication of your message.
If the righteous majority silences or ignores its opponents, it will never have to defend its belief and over time will forget the arguments for it.
As well as losing its grasp of the arguments for its belief, J.S. Mill adds that the majority will in due course even lose a sense of the real meaning and substance of its belief.
What earlier may have been a vital belief will be reduced in time to a series of phrases retained by rote. The belief will be held as a dead dogma rather than as a living truth.
Beliefs held like this are extremely vulnerable to serious opposition when it is eventually encountered. They are more likely to collapse because their supporters do not know how to defend them or even what they really mean.
J.S. Mill’s scenarios involves both parties of opinion, majority and minority, having a portion of the truth but not the whole of it. He regards this as the most common of the three scenarios, and his argument here is very simple.
To enlarge its grasp of the truth the majority must encourage the minority to express its partially truthful view.
Three scenarios – the majority is wrong, partly wrong, or totally right – exhaust for Mill the possible permutations on the distribution of truth, and he holds that in each case the search for truth is best served by allowing free discussion.
Mill thinks history repeatedly demonstrates this process at work and offered Christianity as an illustrative example. By suppressing opposition to it over the centuries Christians ironically weakened rather than strengthened Christian belief, and Mill thinks this explains the decline of Christianity in the modern world. They forgot why they were Christians.
Going on about how climate science is settled and the debate is over is bad tactics for the climate alarmists.
Attempts to close the debate this way provokes suspicion among those who expect some attempt to persuade them rather than to instruct them from on high.
Presumptuousness is never a good influencing strategy nor is dismissiveness. Listen here you stupid dupe of corrupt corporate lackeys converts few.
Most know that the defining feature of the growth of knowledge is knowledge grows and that is often by displacing the received wisdom. These instincts come well before any knowledge is required by the philosophy and sociology of science.
Darrow’s polite and careful cross-examination of Bryan in that great movie Inherit the Wind persuaded many to reject religious-based opposition to the theory of evolution. He asked questions and was very polite. The movie was Spencer Tracy at his finest and in black and white.
Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”
“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.
Recent Comments