The Peak Whale Oil Theory | Coyote Blog

As the US Population reaches toward the astronomical total of 40 million persons, we are reaching the limits of the number of people this earth can support.  If one were to extrapolate current population growth rates, this country in a hundred years could have over 250 million people in it!  Now of course, that figure is impossible – the farmland of this country couldn’t possibly support even half this number.  But it is interesting to consider the environmental consequences.

Take the issue of transportation.  Currently there are over 11 million horses in this country, the feeding and care of which constitute a significant part of our economy.  A population of 250 million would imply the need for nearly 70 million horses in this country, and this is even before one considers the fact that “horse intensity”, or the average number of horses per family, has been increasing steadily over the last several decades.

It is not unreasonable, therefore, to assume that so many people might need 100 million horses to fulfil all their transportation needs.  There is just no way this admittedly bountiful nation could support 100 million horses.  The disposal of their manure alone would create an environmental problem of unprecedented magnitude.

Or, take the case of illuminant.  As the population grows, the demand for illuminant should grow at least as quickly.  However, whale catches and therefore whale oil supply has levelled off of late, such that many are talking about the “peak whale” phenomena, which refers to the theory that whale oil production may have already passed its peak.  250 million people would use up the entire supply of the world’s whales four or five times over, leaving none for poorer nations of the world.

via The Peak Whale Theory | Coyote Blog.

The great leap backward

The importation of socialism into the Third World, even in the relatively non-violent form of Congress-Party Fabian-Gandhism, unintentionally stifled growth, enriched large industrialists, and kept the people poor.  Malthusian theories hatched in the West were put into practice by India and especially China, resulting in millions of missing girls.  The capitalist-sponsored Green Revolution of dwarf hybrids was opposed by green politicians the world around, but has made places like India self-sufficient in grains. 

State power in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa has been used to tax the majority of farmers in aid of the president’s cousins and a minority of urban bureaucrats.  State power in many parts of Latin America has prevented land reform and sponsored disappearances.  State ownership of oil in Nigeria and Mexico and Iraq was used to support the party in power, benefiting the people not at all.  Arab men have been kept poor, not bettered, by using state power to deny education and driver’s licenses to Arab women. 

The seizure of governments by the clergy has corrupted religions and ruined economies.  The seizure of governments by the military has corrupted armies and ruined economies.

Deirdre McCloskey

The real beauty of this free-market price system is that it brings about its own kind of sustainability

This is not so much sustainability in the use of particular resources — for particular goods fall in and out of favour according to supply and demand factors — but sustainability of high economic growth and high standards of living in the economically developed, capitalist economies.

Take, as an example, the transition in the market for interior illumination: tallow candles were replaced by whale-oil lamps, which were replaced by kerosene lamps, which were replaced by incandescent bulbs powered by electricity.

There was no social or political pressure needed to accomplish this evolution; there was no “peak whale oil” movement, no kerosene conservationists, no sustainability crusade of yore. All it took was a functional price system, combined with the ever-present entrepreneurial drive for profits under a competitive, free-market order.

Tyler A. Watts

National emissions regulations can have perverse global effects.

If relatively clean countries switch to clean energy (via command-and-control regulations, cap-and-trade, pollution taxes, or green norms), fossil fuels don’t vanish. Instead, their world price falls – encouraging further consumption in relatively dirty countries.  The net effect?

Bryan Caplan

Peak oil versus global warming

The environmental movement manages to believe in both peak oil – oil will run out in the next two decades or so – and global warming based on runaway carbon emissions for the rest of the century burning the increasingly expensive and increasingly scarce crude oil that had ran out a long time ago previously.

Global warming will solve itself as long as we are willing to accept that the environmental movement is genuine in its predictions about peak oil.

The ideal green share market portfolio would be made up of shares in green energy companies and futures contracts in the natural resources sector to take advantage of peak oil.

Let the science be settled!

HT: Cool It

The Political Rhetoric Around Climate Change … Er, Global Warming | fivethirtyeight

American voters are more likely to fear global warming and take part in a campaign to stop it than they are climate change but the term is falling out of favour. Climate change is less frightening to voters than global warming:

climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.

enten-datalab-global-warming-wording-NEW

enten-datalab-global-warming-wording-1-(3)

via fivethirtyeight.com

Join the Green Tea Party | Terry Anderson

Kermit

…ask yourself an important question: Are you really an environmentalist, or are you just “greener than thou.” Membership in the Green tea party requires more than just displaying your green bona fides. It requires proven environmental results and pragmatic environmental policies—not just green rhetoric…

With only two planks, the Green tea party’s platform would make it clear that prosperity and incentives, not bureaucracies, drive environmental improvements.

The first plank is that wealthier is healthier. From the United States to the former Soviet Union, data show that economic growth is necessary for environmental improvement, not the enemy of it. The overwhelming evidence says that economic growth results from secure property rights and a strong rule of law.

Given this, we have a recipe for improving the environment that starts with economic progress and a robust private sector. More federal spending and bureaucratic red tape work against these goals. Environmental quality cannot be secured with taxpayer dollars and environmental protection agency  regulations.

The second plank is that incentives matter. The Green tea party would use the carrot—property rights and markets—rather than the regulatory stick to improve environmental quality. Kermit agrees with the great conservationist, Aldo Leopold, who said, “Conservation will ultimately boil down to rewarding the private landowner who conserves the public interest.”

Sustainability only comes from profitability and accountability.

via Join the Green Tea Party | Hoover Institution.

Another Fox News conspiracy?

HT: Cool It

Global warming tokenism

image

Image

Alternative energy sources are no substitute for low-cost, zero emissions nuclear power | AEIdeas

nuclear

via Alternative energy sources like wind and solar are no substitute for low-cost, zero emissions nuclear power | AEIdeas.

Economic progress versus environmental quality

When I was in Japan, I was told that in the 1960s, cities and prefectures welcomed polluting industries because of the better paid jobs they offered.

At that time, shipping companies used like to go to Tokyo because the pollution in Tokyo Bay was so bad that it would clean all the barnacles off their ships. That made them sail faster.

Japanese incomes and wages doubled over the course of the 1960s.

In the early 1970s, the LDP stole the environmental policies of their opponents in a really big crack down on pollution because the country could now afforded them. The Japanese voter was now prepared to support stricter pollution standards and environmental controls.

The 1972 Limits To Growth book predicted that industrialization would increase air pollution until civilization collapsed and a few other things

HT: Bjørn Lomborg

The costs of global warming and other government statistics – Updated

Figure 1. The 14 estimates of the global economic impact of climate change, expressed as the welfare-equivalent income loss, as a functions of the increase in global mean temperature relative to today

Manuscript

 

Source: Richard Tol

The recent IPCC report found that the temperature rise that we are expected to see sometime around 2055-2080 will create a net cost of 0.2-2% of GDP. The UK, Japan, and the US wanted this rewritten or stricken.

The IPCC report showed that strong climate policies would be more expensive than claimed as well – costing upwards of 4% of GDP in 2030, 6% in 2050, and 11% by 2100.

Politicians tried to delete or change references to these high costs. British officials said they wanted such cost estimates cut because they “would give a boost to those who doubt action is needed.”

Sir Humphrey: No, no… Blurring issues is one of the basic Ministerial skills.
Jim: Oh, what are the others?
Sir Humphrey: Delaying decisions, dodging questions, juggling figures, bending facts and concealing errors.

and more from Yes Minister:

Seven ways of explaining away the fact that North-West region has saved £32 million while your department overspent:
a. They have changed their accounting system in the North-West.
b. Redrawn the boundaries, so that this year’s figures are not comparable.
c. The money was compensation for special extra expenditure of £16 million a year over the last two years, which has now stopped.
d. It is only a paper bag saving, so it will have to be spent next year.
e. A major expenditure is late in completion and therefore the region will be correspondingly over budget next year. (Known technically as phasing – Ed)
f. There has been an unforeseen but important shift in personnel and industries to other regions whose expenditure rose accordingly.
g. Some large projects were cancelled for reasons of economy early in the accounting period with the result that the expenditure was not incurred but the budget had already been allocated.

HT: Bjørn Lomborg and wattsupwiththat

Addendum

http://www.reddit.com/user/pnewell was good enough on the climate sceptics subreddit to point out that there is an updated version of the graph I posted at the top that includes corrections for gremlins in Richard Tol’s original paper.

His response reminds me of another passage from Yes Minister where prime ministerial candidate Jim Hacker is arguing with a European commission official about butter mountains.

Hacker said in one room a European commission official was subsidising people to produce milk, while in the next room another official is subsidising people to destroy it.

The response of this European union official was to say that was not true. Hacker asked how it was not true. He was told that the two officials were not on the same floor, the other official paying people to take the milk away is on the next floor.

The main body of my post is:

  1. about propaganda tactics to discredit criticism and suppress inconvenient facts, and
  2. the IPCC report facts that even if global warming is a problem, doing anything about it makes us even worse-off.

 

Paul Ehrlich in 1970 predicted a USA decimated by hunger in the year 2000: just 23 million inhabitants living on less calories than the average African gets today

HT: Cool It

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