The Kiwirail black hole

Bronwyn Howell writes: KiwiRail is a state-owned enterprise, and so by law its principal objective is “to operate as a successful business”.1 Success in the business world means that you provide something that your customers are willing to pay for, at a price for that exceeds your cost of production, leaving something to reward your owners/investors…

The Kiwirail black hole

The Missing Myths

Michael Huemer’s Progressive Myths is the best book on wokeness. One of its many strengths is its focus on basic facts. As the author explains:I have selected beliefs that can be debunked fairly quickly and forcefully. Many other progressive beliefs require long argumentation and subjective judgment calls to assess. About these more difficult issues, I…

The Missing Myths

Another corporate welfare failure

The Herald reported: The Government has $115 million at risk from the collapse of SolarZero. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was seeking urgent advice on the SolarZero situation. She had no further comment. NZ Green Investment Finance – a “green investment bank” created by the previous Government to fund environmentally-friendly businesses – made a $145m…

Another corporate welfare failure

Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland’s government announced a new and very strange policy.All Finns were required  to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting. Anyone who owned any of the three…

Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation

Prediction Markets for the Win

The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote: Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and […]

Prediction Markets for the Win

Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention

Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…

Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention

Inquiring into banking

Hard on the heels of the Commerce Commission’s inquiry into some aspects of banking competition, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is also holding an inquiry. Submissions weren’t open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are here. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be […]

Inquiring into banking

Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy

On tax policy, our friends on the left are motivated by envy and hatred. As shown in this Stossel video, Robert Reich is a sad example of this mindset. John Stossel understates his argument. It’s not that Reich is wrong. He’s wildly wrong. There are four points in the video that deserve attention. It is […]

Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy

If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts

Out in the real world where serious money talks, it is becoming obvious that the conclusion has been drawn that many green technologies, unless subsidised by the state, provide profit-free, second-rate solutions to problems invented around a politicised climate crisis.

If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts

Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring

When rates go low, future profits go high. Everyone wants a cutBy Richard B. McKenzie. Excerpt:”Profits in the future, dollar for dollar, are worth less than current dollars. This is because current profits can earn interest between now and the future, which means that future profits must be discounted by some percentage to make them…

Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring

Failing Banks

From Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across…

Failing Banks

Creative destruction

https://www.facebook.com/share/NFF7KSGTQzqMYVDL/?mibextid=xfxF2i

Fiscal and monetary policy

Over the last few years, The Treasury seems to have been toying with bidding for a more significant role for fiscal policy as a countercyclical stabilisation tool It seemed to start when Covid hubris still held sway – didn’t we do well? – and the first we saw of it in public was at a […]

Fiscal and monetary policy

Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well

Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. […]

Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well

Not a good case for a CBDC

The Reserve Bank’s latest round of consultation on a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC) closes today. The thick and probably expensive (at least one of the documents was produced jointly with the consultancy firm Accenture) set of consultation documents came up a few months ago. I thought I had run out of time to […]

Not a good case for a CBDC

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