The prediction of inflation dynamics—how prices change over time—has increasingly confounded modern macroeconomists. Throughout much of the twentieth century, there seemed to be clear relationships linking the money supply, economic slack, and price levels. Monetarism, the school of thought that posits a stable connection between the growth rate of a money aggregate and the subsequent […]
o1 explains why you should not dismiss Fischer Black on money and prices
o1 explains why you should not dismiss Fischer Black on money and prices
08 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic growth, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
The Kiwirail black hole
06 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of bureaucracy, financial economics, industrial organisation, law and economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, survivor principle
Bronwyn Howell writes: KiwiRail is a state-owned enterprise, and so by law its principal objective is “to operate as a successful business”.1 Success in the business world means that you provide something that your customers are willing to pay for, at a price for that exceeds your cost of production, leaving something to reward your owners/investors…
The Kiwirail black hole
The Missing Myths
04 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, discrimination, economic history, economics of climate change, economics of information, economics of media and culture, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, environmentalism, financial economics, gender, global warming, health economics, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, liberalism, libertarianism, Marxist economics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: Age of Enlightenment, crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, free speech, gender wage gap, law and order, political correctness, racial discrimination, regressive left, sex discrimination
Michael Huemer’s Progressive Myths is the best book on wokeness. One of its many strengths is its focus on basic facts. As the author explains:I have selected beliefs that can be debunked fairly quickly and forcefully. Many other progressive beliefs require long argumentation and subjective judgment calls to assess. About these more difficult issues, I…
The Missing Myths
Another corporate welfare failure
02 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, global warming, income redistribution, industrial organisation, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: climate alarmism
The Herald reported: The Government has $115 million at risk from the collapse of SolarZero. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was seeking urgent advice on the SolarZero situation. She had no further comment. NZ Green Investment Finance – a “green investment bank” created by the previous Government to fund environmentally-friendly businesses – made a $145m…
Another corporate welfare failure
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
18 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, financial economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics, property rights Tags: Finland, monetary policy
On the last day of 1945, with World War II finally behind it, Finland’s government announced a new and very strange policy.All Finns were required to take out a pair of scissors and snip their banknotes in half. This was known in Finland as setelinleikkaus, or banknote cutting. Anyone who owned any of the three…
Setelinleikkaus: When Finns snipped their cash in half to curb inflation
Prediction Markets for the Win
10 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, financial economics, politics - USA Tags: 2024 presidential election
The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote: Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and […]
Prediction Markets for the Win
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Inquiring into banking
02 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy competition law
Hard on the heels of the Commerce Commission’s inquiry into some aspects of banking competition, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is also holding an inquiry. Submissions weren’t open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are here. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be […]
Inquiring into banking
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, property rights, Public Choice, public economics Tags: envy, regressive left, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
On tax policy, our friends on the left are motivated by envy and hatred. As shown in this Stossel video, Robert Reich is a sad example of this mindset. John Stossel understates his argument. It’s not that Reich is wrong. He’s wildly wrong. There are four points in the video that deserve attention. It is […]
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts
24 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, financial economics, global warming Tags: celebrity technologies, solar power, wind power
Out in the real world where serious money talks, it is becoming obvious that the conclusion has been drawn that many green technologies, unless subsidised by the state, provide profit-free, second-rate solutions to problems invented around a politicised climate crisis.
If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
23 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When rates go low, future profits go high. Everyone wants a cutBy Richard B. McKenzie. Excerpt:”Profits in the future, dollar for dollar, are worth less than current dollars. This is because current profits can earn interest between now and the future, which means that future profits must be discounted by some percentage to make them…
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
Failing Banks
11 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: bank panics, bank runs
From Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across…
Failing Banks
Creative destruction
03 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
Fiscal and monetary policy
27 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
Over the last few years, The Treasury seems to have been toying with bidding for a more significant role for fiscal policy as a countercyclical stabilisation tool It seemed to start when Covid hubris still held sway – didn’t we do well? – and the first we saw of it in public was at a […]
Fiscal and monetary policy
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
14 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: exchange rates, monetary policy
Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. […]
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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