The prediction markets predicted the election outcome more accurately and more quickly than polls or other forecasting methods, just as expected from decades of research. In this election, however, many people discounted the prediction markets because of large trades on Polymarket. Paul Krugman, for example, wrote: Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and […]
Prediction Markets for the Win
Prediction Markets for the Win
10 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, financial economics, politics - USA Tags: 2024 presidential election
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Inquiring into banking
02 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy competition law
Hard on the heels of the Commerce Commission’s inquiry into some aspects of banking competition, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is also holding an inquiry. Submissions weren’t open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are here. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be […]
Inquiring into banking
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, property rights, Public Choice, public economics Tags: envy, regressive left, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
On tax policy, our friends on the left are motivated by envy and hatred. As shown in this Stossel video, Robert Reich is a sad example of this mindset. John Stossel understates his argument. It’s not that Reich is wrong. He’s wildly wrong. There are four points in the video that deserve attention. It is […]
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts
24 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in energy economics, environmental economics, financial economics, global warming Tags: celebrity technologies, solar power, wind power
Out in the real world where serious money talks, it is becoming obvious that the conclusion has been drawn that many green technologies, unless subsidised by the state, provide profit-free, second-rate solutions to problems invented around a politicised climate crisis.
If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
23 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When rates go low, future profits go high. Everyone wants a cutBy Richard B. McKenzie. Excerpt:”Profits in the future, dollar for dollar, are worth less than current dollars. This is because current profits can earn interest between now and the future, which means that future profits must be discounted by some percentage to make them…
Why the Fed Cut Sent Stocks Soaring
Failing Banks
11 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), great depression, great recession, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: bank panics, bank runs
From Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across…
Failing Banks
Creative destruction
03 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
Fiscal and monetary policy
27 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
Over the last few years, The Treasury seems to have been toying with bidding for a more significant role for fiscal policy as a countercyclical stabilisation tool It seemed to start when Covid hubris still held sway – didn’t we do well? – and the first we saw of it in public was at a […]
Fiscal and monetary policy
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
14 Aug 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: exchange rates, monetary policy
Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. […]
Finally, exchange rate models seem to work pretty well
Not a good case for a CBDC
27 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, financial economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, property rights Tags: digital currency
The Reserve Bank’s latest round of consultation on a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC) closes today. The thick and probably expensive (at least one of the documents was produced jointly with the consultancy firm Accenture) set of consultation documents came up a few months ago. I thought I had run out of time to […]
Not a good case for a CBDC
The Danish Mortgage System Avoids Lock-In
20 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, financial economics, law and economics, property rights, urban economics Tags: Denmark
Tyler and I have been promoting the Danish mortgage system for years. Recall that in the Danish system each mortgage is backed by a matching bond. As a consequence, mortgage holders have two ways to pay a mortgage: 1) hold the mortgage and pay the monthly payments or 2) buy the matching bond and, in […]
The Danish Mortgage System Avoids Lock-In
Caught out! The NZ Initiative’s Article in the Herald Blaming the RBNZ for our Rip-Off Big Banks is Contradicted by its Own Expert Witness. (Willis Beware).
12 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, business cycles, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice
When it comes to the question of how best to avoid a banking collapse and multi-billion dollar bailout that can drag a whole nation into depression, the best solution, according to Chicago-Stanford economist, John Cochrane, is to require banks to set aside a fraction of their own funds as reserves to cover losses they may…
Caught out! The NZ Initiative’s Article in the Herald Blaming the RBNZ for our Rip-Off Big Banks is Contradicted by its Own Expert Witness. (Willis Beware).
Prediction Markets As Investments
04 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, financial economics Tags: efficient markets hypothesis
Supporters of prediction markets tend to emphasize how they are great tools for aggregating information to produce accurate forecasts. If you want to know e.g. who is likely to win the next election, you can watch every poll and listen to pundits for hours, or you can take ten seconds to check the odds. This […]
Prediction Markets As Investments
Bailouts Forever
02 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: deposit insurance
When interest rates rise, the price of long-term assets falls. Consequently, when the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022, the value of bonds and mortgages dropped, causing significant accounting losses for banks heavily invested in these assets. Silicon Valley Bank went bust, for example, because depositors fled upon realizing it was holding lots of […]
Bailouts Forever
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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