Collective bargaining coverage across the OECD, 1990 and 2011

Despite all the hullabaloo, collective bargaining agreement coverage is not declined by that much outside of the English-speaking countries. Outside of the USA, the top 1% are very lazy so they have not benefited from this decline of union power. Within the USA, so few people are covered by collective bargaining agreements for so long that it would not figure in the rising top incomes over the last 30 or more years.

image

Source: Economic Policy Reforms 2015: Going for Growth – © OECD 2015 and OECD Employment Outlook 2002.

As for New Zealand, the main difference between 70%  collective bargaining agreement coverage in 1990 and less than 20% collective bargaining coverage in 2011  is real wage growth returned to New Zealand in the early 1990s after 20 years of wage stagnation. The major economic event of the time was the passage of the Employment Contracts Act.

@garethmorgannz are the poor are just like everyone else except that they have less money?

There is a large literature on what money can buy in terms of improved child outcomes. Central to the left-wing view is the poorer are just like everyone else but they have less money. Susan Mayer, a proud registered Democrat all her life, kick-started the literature challenging this with her book in 1997.

More money does help the children of poor families but the effect is considerably less–and more complicated–than is generally thought because as Mayer says ‘once children’s basic material needs are met, characteristics of their parents become more important to how they turn out than anything additional money can buy.

Doubling the income of poor families would lift most children above the poverty line, it would have virtually no effect on their test scores and only a slight effect on social behaviour. Among her findings, which have largely survive the test of time, are:

  1. Higher parental income has little impact on reading and mathematics test scores.
  2. Higher income increases the number of years that children attend school by only one-fifth of a year.
  3. Higher income does not reduce the amount of time sons are idle as young adults.
  4. Higher income reduces the probability of daughters growing up to be single mothers by 8 to 20 percent.

Mayer found that as parents have more money to spend, they usually spend the extra money on food, especially food eaten in restaurants; larger homes; and on more automobiles. As a result, children are likely to be better housed and better fed, but not necessarily better educated or better prepared for high-income jobs. Mayer said that her findings do not endorse massive cuts in welfare:

My results do not show that we can cut income support programs with impunity…Indeed, they suggest that income support programs have been relatively successful in maintaining the material living standard of many poor children.

Mayer found that non-monetary factors play a bigger role than previously thought in determining how children overcome disadvantage as she explains. Parent-child interactions appear to be important for children’s success, but the study shows little evidence that a parent’s income has a large influence on parenting practices.

Mayer said that if money alone were responsible for overcoming such problems as unwed pregnancy, low educational achievement and male idleness, states with higher welfare benefits could expect to see reductions in these problems. In reality

once we control all relevant state characteristics, the apparent effect of increasing Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits is very small.

Social economics has been here before. In the 1960s, the Coleman Report rather than finding that investing in schools improved child outcomes found that most variation between child outcomes depended on family backgrounds. When we talking about schools not matter in too much we are talking about average bad schools and average good school not American inner-city schools into war zones.

Source: Savings, Genes, and Fade-Out, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty.

Behavioural genetics has been a bit of a blow to those that think greater parental investment can raise child outcomes as Bryan Caplan has explained:

Economists like Nobel laureate Gary Becker have been studying the family for decades.  Like most modern parents, economists usually take it for granted that “parental investment” has large, lasting effects on adult outcomes.

And yet adoption and twin researchers find surprisingly little evidence for this this assumption(link is external)!  With a few notable exceptions, the measured effect of upbringing on adult outcomes is small to zero.  Adoptees barely resemble their adopting families, identical twins are much more similar than fraternal twins, and identical twins raised apart are often as similar as identical twins raised together.  Almost all traits run in families, but the overarching reason is heredity.

Caplan notes that while it is extremely difficult for parental investments to change the adult outcomes of his children, it is well within his power to give his children a happy childhood.

How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed in the States, 1850 – 2013

Collective bargaining agreement coverage across the OECD

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Source: OECD Economic Policy Reforms (2015).

40% of New Zealanders aged 65 to 69 still work

Non-cognitive skills by socioeconomic quintile

1996 US welfare reforms & single mother employment rates @garethmorgannz @geoffsimmonz

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Source: Ron Haskins (2015).

Percentage of American men and women aged 25 to 29 with bachelors degree or higher, 1971 – 2013

The gender gap in higher education reversed in the year 2000

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Source: Educational Attainment | Child Trends

@TBillTheProf shows that SF #livingwage sends hiring standards through the roof

Recent field research in San Francisco and North Carolina restaurants found that after San Francisco living wage increase, managers were pickier about whom they hire, because they want workers to be worth the higher cost. The San Francisco minimum wage is now $12.25, and all employers are required to offer paid sick days and contribute to their employees’ health insurance. 

Source: How worker-friendly laws changed life as a server in San Francisco restaurants – The Washington Post.

The study is useful because of instead of studying the myths and realities about how a higher minimum wage somehow motivates workers to be more productive and offset part or all of its cost to employers, the study investigates how the minimum wage, a living wage, affects hiring standards.

Employers of low skilled, low-wage workers look for workers who are friendly and reliable. As the study concedes, you can teach people the skills they need as long as they are friendly and reliable.

In San Francisco, recruits not only have to be friendly and reliable, they are expected to have experience. The living wage shuts out inexperienced and new workers, which promotes social exclusion.

Minimum wage workers in San Francisco are noticeably older and better educated than those in North Carolina and recruited after more intensive sorting and screening against the hiring standards for the vacancy:

Rather than viewing servers as essentially interchangeable labourers who can be quickly and easily trained if they possess a modicum of personal hygiene and a friendly personality, employers in San Francisco exhibited a clear description of what a professional server was and the explicit and implicit skills required.

The study did not enquire into what happened to applicants who failed to meet the higher hiring standard induced by the living wage increase. As is standard with the champions of the living wage, they do not want to talk about those excluded by the living wage rise.

Poverty Rates by Mothers’ Marital Status, 1987 to 2013

image

Source: Congressional Research Service.https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41917.pdf

A curious @povertymonitor based child poverty infographic

Source: Child Poverty is everyone’s problem – Children’s Commissioner | Stuff.co.nz.

Source: Child Poverty Monitor: Technical Report.

@povertymonitor confirms success of neoliberalism in restoring real wages growth

After two lost decades from 1974 where there was real wage stagnation and next to no real GDP growth, following the Mother of All Budgets in 1991 under Ruth Richardson and the passage of the Employment Contracts Act in the same year, real wages growth returned after a hiatus of 20 years. These 20 years of real wage stagnation were the good old days if the Leftover Left is to be believed.

Source: Child Poverty Monitor: 2015 Technical Report, figure 39.

David Neumark on the employment effects of minimum wages @livingwageNZ

Source: David Neumark on the employment effects of minimum wages | IZA Newsroom.

Some #tax cuts produce more growth than others

Dave Armstrong food banks existed in NZ since the 19th century

Source: Donna Wynd, Hard to Swallow Foodbank Use in New Zealand (2005).

David Armstrong claimed incorrectly that there have been no food banks in New Zealand until recently:

That’s how it used to be here not so long ago, when foodbanks didn’t exist and the number of homeless was tiny. I remember when we had few cases of “poverty” diseases such as rheumatic fever or rickets.

What else explains the increased popularity of food banks, which have been long-standing in New Zealand, it is not falling wages.

The main economic development over the last 25 years is the return of real wage growth after decades of wage stagnation in the boys own good old days of David Armstrong.

Source: Low Wage Economy | New Zealand Council of Trade Unions – Te Kauae Kaimahi.

As for the number of homeless being tiny in the good old days of New Zealand, a New Zealand Parliamentary Library 2014 paper on homeless started its historical narrative in 1850 and spent a lot of time discussing housing deprivation in the early and mid-20th century:

A 1936 national survey found nearly a third of the total urban housing stock was unsatisfactory and 15% of this only fit for demolition. [5]   Māori in particular experienced poor housing conditions.  The first Labour Government loaned money for private house purchases and built state housing to rent.

During the 1950s, the National Government moved to reduce the waiting list for state housing and promoted home ownership, but lengthy waits for some people were reported. Likewise, concern was expressed over severe overcrowding, especially among Māori. By the late 1950s, Wellington’s housing needs were identified as ‘particularly acute.

In the 1960s voluntary organisations recorded a gradual increase in some groups experiencing housing difficulties. The Christchurch Methodist Church night shelter found that their main users were employed people who could not afford other accommodation, unmarried women with children, and those leaving homes because of domestic violence also increasingly sought shelter

Not even a self-described liberal elitist of the left can be forgiven for forgetting some of the key achievements of the first Labour government in social housing. The idea was to improve the quality of New Zealand housing for the poor.

Source: The first state house – State housing | NZHistory, New Zealand history online.

In common with Max Rashbrooke, David Armstrong’s recollection of his boys own childhood does not include Maori as they drifted to the city. Prior to the middle of the 20th century about 85% of Maori lived in rural areas, often lacking electricity, running water and living on dirt floors as the Encyclopaedia of New Zealand explains:

Attracted by work opportunities and the ‘bright lights’ of city life, rural Māori began to move to Auckland and Wellington in the 1920s. However, many faced problems finding accommodation. The reputation Māori had among Pākehā for overcrowding and taking poor care of their homes meant few landlords were prepared to have them as tenants. As attendee James Rukutoki told a Māori leaders conference in 1939, ‘the only dwellings open to the Maori are the ramshackle discards of the Pākehā’.


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