Too few good men – rational behaviour and the causes of teen pregnancies

The causes of teen pregnancies are well described in Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas’s Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage and Jason DeParle’s American Dream: Three Women, Ten Kids, and a Nation’s Drive to End Welfare. See Amy Wax’s superb book review Too few good men.

Women on a low social trajectory see no reason to wait before having a baby and they look down upon those women that wait.

People now regard marriage as a luxury good rather than as a necessity. They refuse to tie the knot unless they have first achieved economic success. A house, a well-paying job, and enough money for a nice wedding are now needed before considering a trip to the altar.

These young women put motherhood first and have no intention of marrying the layabouts that often father their children, most of all, because of repeated and open infidelity.

The women do not complain of men’s failure to earn enough, but rather of their unwillingness to grasp opportunities, work steadily, and spend wisely. The objection is not to modest earning power, but to financial profligacy, defiant attitudes, and lack of work discipline…

The most vociferous complaints are reserved for men’s chronic criminal behaviour, drug use, violence, and, above all, repeated and flagrant sexual infidelity.

Most men made no effort to hide their frequent liaisons, which were often carried on simultaneously. More often than not, those relationships produced babies

Having a baby changes these young women from extras on the stage of life to a mother and all the community respect and social standing that commands.

Babies need not await the achievement of an elevated position in life, because childbearing is a fundamental hallmark of female adulthood that is central to poor women’s dignity and identity.

In the authors’ words, “women rely on their children to bring validation, purpose, companionship, and order to their often chaotic lives — things they find hard to come by in other ways.” In a perverse inversion of old values, these woman have come to regard lone motherhood as the ultimate heroic act, the proving ground of their responsible devotion to others.

These new mothers try and clean up their act. They stop drinking and taking drugs. For the first time in their lives they have a purpose, which is to raise a child.

Far too many social commentators see a teen pregnancy through their own lens as a middle class parent and the despair they would fell because their daughter will not go to university and all that brings including a better class of husband.

University educated couples are not called power couples for nothing – their earning power is this stunning compared to going it on your own. The emergence of power couples means that less educated women may prefer to stay single and raise children on their own rather than marry what is left in the marriage pool.

Great British Class Survey finds seven social classes in UK | Society | The Guardian

John Cleese, Ronnie Barker and Ronnie Corbett in the Class Sketch

Sitcom guide to the new classes

Elite: General Melchett from Blackadder Goes Fourth. Braying, bellowing, incompetent and utterly contemptuous of the lower orders, Melchett would naturally expect to find himself at the top of the pecking order.

Established middle class: Margot and Jerry Leadbetter from The Good Life. As the establishment pillars of comfortable and conservative 1970s suburban society, the couple existed in pointed contrast to their more free-thinking neighbours Tom and Barbara Good.

Technical middle class: David Brent from The Office. Despite his supposedly rock’n’roll past, Ricky Gervais’s fist-gnawingly embarrassing general manager was resolutely middle class.

New affluent workers: Miranda from Miranda. Miranda Hart herself may be established middle class, but the heroine of her eponymous sitcom sits comfortably in a slightly lower category.

Traditional working class: Jim Royle from The Royle Family. Could Ricky Tomlinson’s armchair-bound, TV-addicted patriarch be anything other than proudly working class? My arse!

Emergent service workers: Maurice Moss from the IT Crowd. Young, nerdish and living at home with his mum, Moss could fit the emergent service worker class but probably needs a little work to increase his social and cultural capital levels.

Precariat: Rab C Nesbitt. Gregor Fisher’s much-loved and enduring sitcom creation has assumed the status of folk hero despite his resolutely unglamorous life.

The Full class topology is:

  • Elite – the most privileged group in the UK, distinct from the other six classes through its wealth. This group has the highest levels of all three capitals
  • Established middle class – the second wealthiest, scoring highly on all three capitals. The largest and most gregarious group, scoring second highest for cultural capital
  • Technical middle class – a small, distinctive new class group which is prosperous but scores low for social and cultural capital. Distinguished by its social isolation and cultural apathy
  • New affluent workers – a young class group which is socially and culturally active, with middling levels of economic capital
  • Traditional working class – scores low on all forms of capital, but is not completely deprived. Its members have reasonably high house values, explained by this group having the oldest average age at 66
  • Emergent service workers – a new, young, urban group which is relatively poor but has high social and cultural capital
  • Precariat, or precarious proletariat – the poorest, most deprived class, scoring low for social and cultural capital

via Great British Class Survey finds seven social classes in UK | Society | The Guardian.

New Zealand has the highest minimum wage in the world

John Schmitt  lists 11 margins along which  a minimum wage  might  cause changes:

  1. Reduction in hours worked (because firms faced with a higher minimum wage trim back on the hours they want)
  2. Reduction in non-wage benefits (to offset the higher costs of the minimum wage)
  3. Reduction in money spent on training (again, to offset the higher costs of the minimum wage)
  4. Change in composition of the workforce (that is, hiring additional workers with middle or higher skill levels, and fewer of those minimum wage workers with lower skill levels)
  5. Higher prices (passing the cost of the higher minimum wage on to consumers)
  6. Improvements in efficient use of labour (in a model where employers are not always at the peak level of efficiency, a higher cost of labour might give them a push to be more efficient)
  7. “Efficiency wage” responses from workers (when workers are paid more, they have a greater incentive to keep their jobs, and thus may work harder and shirk less)
  8. Wage compression (minimum wage workers get more, but those above them on the wage scale may not get as much as they otherwise would)
  9. Reduction in profits (higher costs of minimum wage workers reduces profits)
  10. Increase in demand (a higher minimum wage boosts buying power in overall economy)
  11. Reduced turnover (a higher minimum wage makes a stronger bond between employer and workers, and gives employers more reason to train and hold on to workers)

 Richard McKenzie argues that the biggest impact  of a minimum wage increase is reductions to paid and unpaid benefits for minimum wage workers, including  health insurance, store discounts, free food, flexible scheduling, and job security resulting from higher-skilled workers drawn to the higher minimum wage jobs:

  • Masanori Hashimot found that under the 1967 minimum-wage hike, workers gained 32 cents in money income but lost 41 cents per hour in training—a net loss of 9 cents an hour in full-income compensation. Several other researchers in independently completed studies found more evidence that a hike in the minimum wage undercuts on-the-job training and undermines covered workers’ long-term income growth.
  • Walter Wessels found that the minimum wage caused retail establishments in New York to increase work demands by cutting back on the number of workers and giving workers fewer hours to do the same work.
  • Belton Fleisher, L. F. Dunn, and William Alpert found that minimum-wage increases lead to large reductions in fringe benefits and to worsening working conditions.
  • Mindy Marks found that workers covered by the federal minimum-wage law were also more likely to work part time, given that part-time workers can be excluded from employer-provided health insurance plans.

McKenzie also argued that if the minimum wage does not cause employers to make substantial reductions in fringe benefits and increases in work demands, then an increased minimum should cause

(1) an increase in the labour-force-participation rates of covered workers (because workers would be moving up their supply of labour curves),

(2) a reduction in the rate at which covered workers quit their jobs (because their jobs would then be more attractive), and

(3) a significant increase in prices of production processes heavily dependent on covered minimum-wage workers.

Wessels found that minimum-wage increases had exactly the opposite effect:

(1) participation rates went down,

(2) quit rates went up, and

(3) prices did not rise appreciably—which are findings consistent only with the view that minimum-wage increases make workers worse off.

McKenzie was the first economist to argue that a minimum wage increase may actually reduce the labour supply  of menial workers. Employment in menial jobs may go down slightly in the face of minimum-wage increases not so much because the employers don’t want to offer the jobs, but because fewer workers want these menial jobs that are offered.

The repackaging of monetary and non-monetary benefits, greater work intensities and fewer training opportunities make these jobs less attractive relative to their other options. This  reduction in labour supply by low skilled workers is why the voluntary quit rate among low-wage workers goes up, not down, after a minimum wage increase. As McKenzie explains

Economists almost uniformly argue that minimum wage laws benefit some workers at the expense of other workers.

This argument is implicitly founded on the assumption that money wages are the only form of labour compensation.

Based on the more realistic assumption that labour is paid in many different ways, the analysis of this paper demonstrates that all labourers within a perfectly competitive labour market are adversely affected by minimum wages.

Although employment opportunities are reduced by such laws, affected labour markets clear. Conventional analysis of the effect of minimum wages on monopsony markets is also upset by the model developed.

McKenzie argues that not accounting for offsetting behaviour led to a fundamental misinterpretation in the empirical literature on the minimum wage. That literature shows that small increases in the minimum wages does not seem to affect employment and unemployment by that much.

…. wage income is not the only form of compensation with which employers pay their workers. Also in the mix are fringe benefits, relaxed work demands, workplace ambiance, respect, schedule flexibility, job security and hours of work.

Employers compete with one another to reduce their labour costs for unskilled workers, while unskilled workers compete for the available unskilled jobs — with an eye on the total value of the compensation package. With a minimum-wage increase, employers will move to cut labour costs by reducing fringe benefits and increasing work demands…

Proponents and opponents of minimum-wage hikes do not seem to realize that the tiny employment effects consistently found across numerous studies provide the strongest evidence available that increases in the minimum wage have been largely neutralized by cost savings on fringe benefits and increased work demands and the cost savings from the more obscure and hard-to-measure cuts in nonmoney compensation.

McKenzie is correct in arguing that the empirical literature on the minimum wage is dewy-eyed. The first assumption about any regulation is the market will offset it significantly. In the course of undoing the direct effects  of the regulation, there will be unintended consequences such as the remixing of wage and nonwage components of  remuneration packages of low skilled workers covered by the minimum wage.

HT:  conversableeconomist

The importance of Baumol’s cost disease in school cost trends

 

 

Baumol’s cost disease is a phenomenon described by William J. Baumol in the 1960s. It involves a rise of wages in jobs that have experienced no increase of labour productivity in response to rising wages in other jobs which did experience such labour productivity growth.

The rise of wages in jobs without productivity gains is required to compete for employees with jobs that did experience gains and can naturally pay higher wages.

The original study was conducted for the performing arts. Baumol pointed out that the same number of musicians is needed to play a Beethoven string quartet today as was needed in the 19th century:  the productivity of classical music performance has not increased, but real wages of musicians (as well as in all other professions) have increased greatly since the 19th century.

In labour-intensive sectors that rely heavily on human interaction such as nursing, education, or the performing arts, there is little or no growth in productivity over time. These sectors must pay more to stay competitive in the labour market. These jobs will survive as long as consumers are willing to pay these wage increases. Entrepreneurs react to Baumol’s disease in several ways:

Baumol’s cost disease in the education sector would be reinforced by reductions in class sizes, more specialised teaching, and the increase in the higher education premium throughout the economy.

All of these effects would require the schooling sector to pay because would be teachers have many more options than in the past. In days gone by, outside of the professions, teaching was one of the few jobs available to a university graduate. Indeed, in days gone by, many teachers were either teachers college graduates  such is the case with the sister or they learnt on-the-job as my mother was going to do.

Milton Friedman on poverty alleviation

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The West Wing – Ainsley Hayes on the ERA

The politics of women’s self defence tips

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Ending child labour can only be through expanding family opportunities

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Thomas Sowell on affirmative action in education

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Why aren’t minority women discriminated against – Thomas Sowell

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Atomic Tests Were a Tourist Draw in 1950s Las Vegas – entrepreneurial alterness alert

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Over 1000 tests from 1951 onwards.

Why weren’t never-married women discriminated against – Thomas Sowell

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What Quacks don’t tell you

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Demographics of school voucher support

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Milton Friedman on who profits from strikes

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