The United States vs. Europe, Part IV

I put a lot of focus on “convergence” and “divergence” because economic theory says rich countries should not grow faster than poor countries. So when there are examples of divergence, especially when looking at decades of data, we can learn very important lessons about economic policy. Those lessons, in every single case, teach us that […]

The United States vs. Europe, Part IV

PRESCOTT on quality adjusted medical price indexes

Predistribution, Not Redistribution, in the Nordic Countries

Maybe it’s just because I live in Minnesota, a state where the differences between immigrants from Sweden, Norway, and Finland are still apparent in the names of towns and the surnames of people. But when I run into people who would prefer that the US distribution of income be more equal, they often point to…

Predistribution, Not Redistribution, in the Nordic Countries

Abundance 2025 – Preview

Five questions I’ll be bringing to the conference this week

Abundance 2025 – Preview

Do rising house prices damage economic growth?

Don Brash writes –  In recent years, when addressing Rotary and other audiences, I often talk about the five big challenges facing New Zealand – persistently slow growth in productivity, and therefore in income levels; ridiculously unaffordable house prices; the increasing division of our society into those with a Maori ancestor and those without; the […]

Do rising house prices damage economic growth?

The Most Important Election(s) of 2025

Javier Milei has generated amazingly good results in just 20 months. But more reform is needed to undo the damage of 80 years of Peronism, which is why I explain that Argentina’s mid-term elections will be very important. Milei wants to turn Argentina into the world’s freest economy. That won’t be possible so long as […]

The Most Important Election(s) of 2025

If the election was scheduled for next week, Hipkins could win – but (luckily for Luxon) it’s next year

Chris Trotter writes –  “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune”. Those words, taken from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, are often quoted in the context of politicians facing the hard choice between doing it now, or not doing it at all.

If the election was scheduled for next week, Hipkins could win – but (luckily for Luxon) it’s next year

Reading Grant Robertson

I got home from Papua New Guinea at 1:30 on Saturday morning and by 3:30 yesterday afternoon I’d finished Grant Robertson’s new book, Anything Could Happen, and in between I’d been to two film festival movies, a 60th birthday party, and church. It is that sort of book, a pretty easy read. In some respects, […]

Reading Grant Robertson

Why is Europe Falling Behind?

WSJ: Europe is Losing Europeans live longer, have more leisure time and less income inequality, and often live in stunning cities and towns built over the centuries. But increasingly, Americans enjoy a higher standard of living. They have over 50% more living space on average per person. More than four in five Americans have air…

Why is Europe Falling Behind?

The Greens’ weekend gift to the government

Roger Partridge writes – The Greens’ coronation of Chlöe Swarbrick at last weekend’s AGM delivered a manifesto for economic transformation that would make Soviet economists nostalgic for their glory days.

The Greens’ weekend gift to the government

Milei’s Achievements…and Challenges

I’m back in Argentina, the South American country with the world’s best leader. What Javier Milei has accomplished is amazing. And the economic effects have been wonderful. One of my meetings earlier this week was with Marcelo Elizondo, the head of the International Chamber of Commerce for Argentina. He shared a presentation with me that […]

Milei’s Achievements…and Challenges

Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts

Here is a recent paper by Benjamin S.  Kay, Aeimit Lakdawala, and Jane Ryngaert: Using a novel dataset linking professional forecasters in the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey to their political affiliations, we document a partisan bias in GDP growth forecasts. Republican-affiliated forecasters project 0.3-0.4 percentage points higher growth when Republicans hold the presidency, […]

Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts

The Milei Miracle, Part II

I almost feel sorry for the 108 leftist economists who predicted back in 2023 that Argentina would suffer if Javier Milei won the presidential election. Not only were they disappointed when he enjoyed a landslide victory, but the subsequent events in Argentina have shown that they were wildly wrong (all of which is discussed in […]

The Milei Miracle, Part II

The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal (due to the resource curse)

By Davis Kedrosky and Nuno Palma. Published in The Journal of Economic History.In the book The Economics of Macro Issues which I used as a supplemental text, they mention that Russia has many resources but its per capita income is less than that of Luxembourg which has few resources. The book suggests that the economic…

The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal (due to the resource curse)

The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth

In the long run, a rising standard of living is always and everywhere based on productivity growth. Thus, Austan Goolsbee notedin a keynote address at the “Summit” conference held at the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) in February (“Remarks on Productivity Growth and Monetary Policy,” February 28, 2025): As Goolsbee notes, annual productivity…

The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth

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