Myron Scholes was on top of the world in 1997, having won the Nobel Prize in economics that year for his work in financial economics, work that he had applied in the real world in a wildly successful hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. But just one year later, LTCM was saved from collapse only […]
Elon recently re-opened the perennial debate about whether Social Security is a ponzi scheme. Here’s my, lightly edited post from 2011. Elon is in good company calling social security a ponzi scheme. First up is Nobel prize winner Paul Samuelson who wrote: The beauty of social insurance is that it is actuarially unsound. Everyone who reaches […]
Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (and FOMC), Ben Bernanke, was yesterday the first of two keynote speakers at the Reserve Bank’s conference to mark 35 years of inflation targeting, which first became a formalised thing here in New Zealand. He indicated that he’d be speaking about inflation targeting in general and […]
That’s the title of a 2024 book by a couple of Australian academic economists, Steven Hamilton (based in US) and Richard Holden (a professor at the University of New South Wales). The subtitle of the book is “How we crushed the curve but lost the race”. It is easy to get off on the wrong […]
Last year there was an interesting new book out, made up of 29 collected short papers by (more or less) prominent economists given at a 2023 conference to mark Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty. The fifty years related to the transition back to generalised floating of the major developed world currencies in 1973 (think USD, […]
I’m a big fan of Ireland’s low corporate tax rate for three reasons. First, it shows that good tax policy generates positive economic outcomes as per-capita GDP in Ireland has grown by record amounts. Second, it shows that lower tax rates can in some cases lead to more revenue. Sort of a turbo-charged version of […]
Other than Art Laffer, I think of myself as the world’s biggest advocate of the Laffer Curve. I’ve literally written hundreds of columns explaining and promoting the concept. My goal is to help people understand that there is not a linear relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. Why is this the case? Because when […]
Don Brash and Michael Reddell write – When Don was young and Michael’s parents were young, New Zealand had among the very highest material standards of living in the world. It really was, in the old line, one of the very best places to bring up children. But no longer. For 75 years now, with […]
I have a special page for humor involving Europe, but I have not added to it since sharing some Brexit humor in 2016. Let’s being the process of catching up with some amusing cartoons and memes mocking our government-loving cousins on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. I’ve made the serious point that bureaucrats […]
The Prime Minister’s speech 10 days or so ago kicked off a flurry of commentary. No one much anywhere near the mainstream (ie excluding Greens supporters) questioned the rhetoric. New Zealand has done woefully poorly on productivity for a long time and we really need better outcomes, and the sorts of policy frameworks that would […]
Michael Reddell writes – I’ve spent the last week writing a fairly substantial review of a recent book (“Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism: How we crushed the curve but lost the race”) by a couple of Australian academic economists on Australia’s pandemic policies and experiences. For all its limitations, there isn’t anything similar in New Zealand. What […]
The subtitle is New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870, and the authors are Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson. Abstract: We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these […]
It would be fair to say that 2024 Nobel Prize winner Daron Acemoglu has been a bit of a sceptic about the impacts of generative AI (for example, see here). This scepticism is exemplified in a new paper forthcoming in the journal Economic Policy (ungated earlier version here). Acemoglu first notes that:Some experts believe that truly…
At the age of about 60, my wife began having terrible pain in her hip. For about a year, this greatly limited her ability to walk longer distances. One of her great joys, exploring new places on foot, was suddenly impossible to pursue. And then the pain got so bad that she could barely sleep,…
Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.
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