When Genius Failed

Myron Scholes was on top of the world in 1997, having won the Nobel Prize in economics that year for his work in financial economics, work that he had applied in the real world in a wildly successful hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. But just one year later, LTCM was saved from collapse only […]

When Genius Failed

Prebs is Right – a 4 Year Parliamentary Term is no panacea to NZ’s stagnation. The problem is neither the Nats nor Labour have had a plan since 1993.

In an excellent article in the Herald, Richard Prebble (or “Prebs” as we call him) argues the proposals presented by National-ACT for a…

Prebs is Right – a 4 Year Parliamentary Term is no panacea to NZ’s stagnation. The problem is neither the Nats nor Labour have had a plan since 1993.

Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?

Elon recently re-opened the perennial debate about whether Social Security is a ponzi scheme. Here’s my, lightly edited post from 2011. Elon is in good company calling social security a ponzi scheme. First up is Nobel prize winner Paul Samuelson who wrote: The beauty of social insurance is that it is actuarially unsound. Everyone who reaches […]

Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?

Bernanke on inflation targeting

Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (and FOMC), Ben Bernanke, was yesterday the first of two keynote speakers at the Reserve Bank’s conference to mark 35 years of inflation targeting, which first became a formalised thing here in New Zealand.  He indicated that he’d be speaking about inflation targeting in general and […]

Bernanke on inflation targeting

Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism

That’s the title of a 2024 book by a couple of Australian academic economists, Steven Hamilton (based in US) and Richard Holden (a professor at the University of New South Wales). The subtitle of the book is “How we crushed the curve but lost the race”. It is easy to get off on the wrong […]

Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism

Forty years of floating

Last year there was an interesting new book out, made up of 29 collected short papers by (more or less) prominent economists given at a 2023 conference to mark Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty. The fifty years related to the transition back to generalised floating of the major developed world currencies in 1973 (think USD, […]

Forty years of floating

Ireland: Good Corporate Tax Policy vs. Bad Government Spending Policy

I’m a big fan of Ireland’s low corporate tax rate for three reasons. First, it shows that good tax policy generates positive economic outcomes as per-capita GDP in Ireland has grown by record amounts. Second, it shows that lower tax rates can in some cases lead to more revenue. Sort of a turbo-charged version of […]

Ireland: Good Corporate Tax Policy vs. Bad Government Spending Policy

Goldilocks and the Laffer Curve

Other than Art Laffer, I think of myself as the world’s biggest advocate of the Laffer Curve. I’ve literally written hundreds of columns explaining and promoting the concept. My goal is to help people understand that there is not a linear relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. Why is this the case? Because when […]

Goldilocks and the Laffer Curve

By 2025 we were supposed to have closed the gap

Don Brash and Michael Reddell write – When Don was young and Michael’s parents were young, New Zealand had among the very highest material standards of living in the world. It really was, in the old line, one of the very best places to bring up children. But no longer. For 75 years now, with […]

By 2025 we were supposed to have closed the gap

Mocking European Statism

I have a special page for humor involving Europe, but I have not added to it since sharing some Brexit humor in 2016. Let’s being the process of catching up with some amusing cartoons and memes mocking our government-loving cousins on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. I’ve made the serious point that bureaucrats […]

Mocking European Statism

Going for growth…..perhaps

The Prime Minister’s speech 10 days or so ago kicked off a flurry of commentary. No one much anywhere near the mainstream (ie excluding Greens supporters) questioned the rhetoric. New Zealand has done woefully poorly on productivity for a long time and we really need better outcomes, and the sorts of policy frameworks that would […]

Going for growth…..perhaps

Reviewing Covid experiences and policies

Michael Reddell writes – I’ve spent the last week writing a fairly substantial review of a recent book (“Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism: How we crushed the curve but lost the race”) by a couple of Australian academic economists on Australia’s pandemic policies and experiences. For all its limitations, there isn’t anything similar in New Zealand. What […]

Reviewing Covid experiences and policies

When did sustained economic growth begin?

The subtitle is New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870, and the authors are Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson.  Abstract: We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these […]

When did sustained economic growth begin?

Daron Acemoglu expects only a tiny macroeconomic impact of AI

It would be fair to say that 2024 Nobel Prize winner Daron Acemoglu has been a bit of a sceptic about the impacts of generative AI (for example, see here). This scepticism is exemplified in a new paper forthcoming in the journal Economic Policy (ungated earlier version here). Acemoglu first notes that:Some experts believe that truly…

Daron Acemoglu expects only a tiny macroeconomic impact of AI

Everything is Pretty Damn Awesome

At the age of about 60, my wife began having terrible pain in her hip.  For about a year, this greatly limited her ability to walk longer distances.  One of her great joys, exploring new places on foot, was suddenly impossible to pursue.  And then the pain got so bad  that she could barely sleep,…

Everything is Pretty Damn Awesome

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