Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
The Shinkansen and Japan’s Lost Decades
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economics of bureaucracy, industrial organisation, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics, survivor principle, transport economics, urban economics Tags: Japan
Japan is known for many things, but two of them are the Shinkansen high-speed trains and the nation’s three Lost Decades of slow economic growth. Unfortunately, most tourists who go to Japan see the former and don’t see the latter and especially don’t see the connection between the two. The … Continue reading →
The Shinkansen and Japan’s Lost Decades
The Puzzle of Japan’s Economy: When Productivity Gains Are Outside National Borders
26 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics Tags: economics of fertility, Japan
In total size, Japan’s economy is fourth-largest in the world, just behind Germany for third-largest. In per capita GDP, Japan is ahead of Spain and South Korea, although well behind Italy and France. With a life expectancy at birth of 84 years, ,Japan has one of the highest levels in the world. Clearly, Japan has…
The Puzzle of Japan’s Economy: When Productivity Gains Are Outside National Borders
Scott Alexander on the Progress Studies conference
25 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, liberalism, macroeconomics Tags: creative destruction
Here is one excerpt: Over-regulation was the enemy at many presentations, but this wasn’t a libertarian conference. Everyone agreed that safety, quality, the environment, etc, were important and should be regulated for. They just thought existing regulations were colossally stupid, so much so that they made everything worse including safety, the environment, etc. With enough political will, […]
Scott Alexander on the Progress Studies conference
Reflections on India
16 Oct 2024 1 Comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, income redistribution, law and economics, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, regulation, rentseeking Tags: economics of colonialism, India
I’m back from my first trip to India, where I visited Mumbai, Delhi, Agra, and Amritsar. I enjoyed fine company in all four cities. In Mumbai, my new friend Sachin Aggarwal, head of the local EconTalk Club, rolled out the red carpet — and ACX Mumbai joined the festivities. (Thank you, Scott Alexander, for creating…
Reflections on India
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson Win Nobel Prize for Institutions and Prosperity
15 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, income redistribution, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking
The Nobel prize goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on institutions, prosperity, and economic growth. Here is a key piece summarizing their work: Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that differences in economic institutions are the fundamental cause of […]
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson Win Nobel Prize for Institutions and Prosperity
US Productivity Growth: Downside, Upside
08 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics Tags: The Great Enrichment
Over time, a rising US standard of living is driven by productivity growth. Michael Peters succinctly describes the problem in “America Must Rediscover Its Dynamism” (Finance & Development, September 2024). He writes: The US economy has a multitrillion-dollar problem. It’s the dramatic slowdown in productivity growth over the past couple of decades. Between 1947 and…
US Productivity Growth: Downside, Upside
Canada Is Part of the Anti-Convergence Club
01 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, comparative institutional analysis, economic growth, economic history, economics of regulation, environmental economics, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, property rights Tags: Canada
Economists widely agree with the theory of “convergence,” which is the (mostly true) idea that poor nations should grow faster than rich nations as they catch up (converge). But there are exceptions. Sometimes a richer country will grow faster than a poorer country over a significant period of time, and we can learn from these examples. This is […]
Canada Is Part of the Anti-Convergence Club
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
28 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, public economics, unemployment Tags: New Keynesian macroeconomics
Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound. We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918to 2020, we […]
Another zero lower bound prediction bites the dust
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
In the past few hours, it has been stated that the US economy grew at a solid 3% rate last quarter, as given in the American government’s final estimate. New Zealand’s economy, on the other hand, shrank at a rate of -0.2%. The US Federal Funds rate (the equivalent of NZ’s Official Cash Rate, OCR)…
Proof that NZ’s Reserve Bank has Inflicted Unnecessary Pain up and down the Nation.
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
27 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, property rights, Public Choice, public economics Tags: envy, regressive left, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
On tax policy, our friends on the left are motivated by envy and hatred. As shown in this Stossel video, Robert Reich is a sad example of this mindset. John Stossel understates his argument. It’s not that Reich is wrong. He’s wildly wrong. There are four points in the video that deserve attention. It is […]
Debunking Hate-and-Envy Tax Policy
Facts about Britain
22 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, industrial organisation, labour economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, Public Choice, resource economics, transport economics, urban economics Tags: British politics
Between 2004 and 2021, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the industrial price of energy tripled in nominal terms, or doubled relative to consumer prices. With almost identical population sizes, the UK has under 30 million homes, while France has around 37 million. 800,000 British families have second homes compared to 3.4 million French families. Per capita electricity generation in the UK […]
Facts about Britain
Tax-Motivated Domestic Migration
17 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, entrepreneurship, Federalism, fiscal policy, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, occupational choice, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: capital gains tax, taxation and investment taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and labour supply
I’m a big fan of tax competition. I cheer when jobs, investment, and people (or even booze) move from high-tax jurisdictions to low-tax jurisdictions. This increases the rewards for good policy and also increases the punishment for bad policy. Given my interest in the topic, I obviously can’t resist sharing this chart, which shows the […]
Tax-Motivated Domestic Migration
It Happened Again! The New York Times Writes about Venezuela’s Collapse and Fails to Mention Socialism
16 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, history of economic thought, income redistribution, liberalism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: regressive left, useful idiot, Venezuela
I sometimes make the theoretical case against socialism. Usually, this means exposing the flaws of the core components of the socialist ideology. Government ownership of the means of production is a recipe for resource misallocation. Central planning has a miserable track record of failure because consumer preferences are ignored. Price controls distort incentives to make […]
It Happened Again! The New York Times Writes about Venezuela’s Collapse and Fails to Mention Socialism
The Santa Claus Election
15 Sep 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, economic growth, economics of education, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, health and safety, income redistribution, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA, Public Choice, public economics, unions Tags: 2024 presidential election, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
For libertarians, this is a very depressing election (a feeling we tend to have every four years, so a familiar experience). What basically happens is that two politicians try to bribe us with our own money. This year, we have Kamala Harris, who was even worse than Bernie Sanders in the big-spender contest. And we […]
The Santa Claus Election
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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