If you’re so smart, show me your bank account

The pretensions of econometricians and other “model-builders” that they can precisely forecast the economy will always flounder on the simple but devastating query: “If you can forecast so well, why are you not doing so on the stock market, where accurate forecasting reaps such rich rewards?”

It is beside the point to dismiss such a query . . . by calling it “anti-intellectual”; for this is precisely the acid test of the would-be economic oracle

Murray Rothbard

How does a free press emerge through the market process?

For much of the 19th century U.S. newspapers were public relations tools funded by politicians. Information hostile to a paper’s political views were ignored or dismissed as sophistry. Newspaper independence was rare. Fraud and corruption in 19th century America approached today’s more corrupt developing nations.

The newspaper industry underwent fundamental changes between 1870 and 1920 as the press became more informative and less partisan.
– 11 per cent of urban dailies were independent in 1870,
– 62 per cent were in 1920.

The rise of the informative press was the result of increased scale and competitiveness in the newspaper industry caused by technological progress in the newsprint and newspaper industries.
• From 1870 to 1920, when corruption appears to have declined significantly within the United States, the press became more informative, less partisan, and expanded circulation considerably.
• By the 1920s, the partisan papers no longer coupled allegations of the corruption of their party members with condemnation of the character of the person making the charge.

A reasonable hypothesis is rise of the informative press was one of the reasons why the corruption of the Gilded Age was sharply reduced during the Progressive Era.

A supply-side model suggesting that newspapers weigh the rewards of bias—politicians’ bribes or personal pleasure—against the cost of bias—lost circulation from providing faulty news.

The key predictions of the model are that, as the size of the market for newspapers rises, and as the marginal cost of producing a paper falls, newspapers will become less biased and invest more in gathering information.

Corruption declined because media proprietors discovered that they could maintain and boost circulation by exposing it. An independent press which kept a watchful eye over government and business was a spontaneous order that was a by-product of rising incomes and literacy of readers.

Politicians did not help the process along. Technological innovations and increased city populations caused a huge increase in scale.

Newspapers become big businesses; they increased readership and revenue by presenting factual and informative news. It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, it is from their high regard to their own interest.

Following these incentives, newspapers changed from political tools to impartial reporting. Those newspapers that did not did not survive in competition.

HT: The Rise of the Fourth Estate: How Newspapers Became Informative and Why It Mattered by Matthew Gentzkow, Edward L. Glaeser, and Claudia Goldin in Corruption and Reform: Lessons from America’s Economic History (2006).

Competition as a force for media accuracy or infotainment

Limiting the number of TV stations has unusual effects on media slant and muckraking.

Tyler Cowen argues that competition by itself is not a powerful force for media accuracy.

In the traditional conception of the demand for news, audiences read, watch, and listen to the news in order to get information. The quality of news is its accuracy.

But when there are many media outlets, competition results in a common slanting of news towards reader biases in the audience niche each network are serving. The market is very good are serving up what the customer wants.

Competition forces news outlets to cater to their customer’s niche preferences.

  • Realised profit is the criterion by which the market process selects survivors: those who realise positive profits survive; those who suffer losses disappear.
  • Positive profits accrue to those news outlets who are better than their competitors. These lesser rivals will exhaust their retained earnings and fail to attract further new investor support.

On topics where reader beliefs diverge on politically divisive issues, media outlets profit from segmenting the market and slanting reports to the biases of their niche audiences.

There is less bland truth-telling and more of the polemics that each market niche wants.

This means that left-wing and right-wing media outlets will hound the political enemies of their readers to cater to the preferences of their audience niche.

The clearest illustration of infotainment is the Lewinsky affair:

  • The left wing press presented information designed to excuse Clinton’s sins; and
  • The right wing press dug out details pointing to his culpability.

When there are only a few media outlets, the networks instead go for the median viewer/reader and offer more sedate and less scandal driven coverage.

More media competition increases the chances of the muckraking that brings down ministers and governments.

Why Does 1% of History Have 99% of the Wealth? | Learn Liberty – YouTube

Throughout the history of the world, the average person on earth has been extremely poor: subsisting on the modern equivalent of $3 per day.

 

This was true until 1800, at which point average wages—and standards of living—began to rise dramatically.

Prof. Deirdre McCloskey explains how this tremendous increase in wealth came about.

In the past 30 years alone, the number of people in the world living on less than $3 per day has been halved.

The cause of the economic growth we have witnessed in the past 200 years may surprise you.

It’s not exploitation, or investment. Innovation—new ideas, new inventions, materials, machinery, organizational structures—has fueled this economic boom.

Prof. McCloskey explains how changes in Holland and England in the 1600s and 1700s opened the door for innovation to take off—starting the growth that continues to benefit us today.

via Why Does 1% of History Have 99% of the Wealth? | Learn Liberty – YouTube.

The Rawlsian social justice case for super-entrepreneurs and many more billionaires

The report SuperEntrepreneurs shows that:

  • SuperEntrepreneurs founded half the largest new firms created since the end of the Second World War
  • There is a strong correlation between high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship in a country and low tax rates
  • a low regulatory burden and high rates of philanthropy both correlate strongly with high rates of SuperEntrepreneurship
  • Active government and supranational programmes to encourage entrepreneurship – such as the EU’s Lisbon Strategy – have largely failed.
  • Yet governments can encourage entrepreneurialism by lowering taxes (particularly capital gains taxes which have a particularly high impact on entrepreneurialism while raising relatively insignificant revenues); by reducing regulations; and by vigorously enforcing property rights.
  • High rates of self-employment and innovative entrepreneurship are both important for the economy.
  • Yet policy makers should recognise that they are not synonymous and should not assume policies which encourage self-employment necessarily promote entrepreneurship.
  • Policy makers should use a definition of entrepreneurship which is based on innovation.

SuperEntrepreneurs examined about 1,000 self-made men and women who have earned at least $1 billion dollars and who appeared in Forbes magazine list of the world’s richest people between 1996 and 2010.

Hong Kong has the most, with around three SuperEntrepreneurs per million inhabitants, followed by Israel, the US, Switzerland and Singapore.

The US is roughly four times more super-entrepreneurial than Western Europe and three times more super-entrepreneurial than Japan.

Super-entrepreneurs tend to be well-educated – 84% have a university degree.

Many started their own company but there is no clear relationship between self-employment and successful entrepreneurship

Steven Kaplan and Joshua Rauh’s “It’s the Market: The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top TalentJournal of Economic Perspectives 2013 found that those in the Forbes 400 richest are less likely to have inherited their wealth or grown-up wealthy.

Today’s super-rich are self-made rich because they produce new and better products and services that people wanted and are willing to pay for.

John Rawls was alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

Rawls excluded envy when we are behind his veil of ignorance designed the social contract about how the society will be organised. He believed that principles of justice should not be affected by individual inclinations, which are mere accidents.

Rawls also argued that the liberties and political status of equal citizens encourage self-respect even when one is less well off than others; and background institutions (including a competitive economy) make it likely that excessive inequalities will not be the rule. He supposes that

the main psychological root of our liability to envy is a lack of self-confidence in our own worth combined with a sense of impotence

Then there is the old Russian joke that tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbour because he has two. A sorcerer offers to grant the envious farmer a single wish any thing he wants: “Shoot my neighbour’s cow!” he demands.

via http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/04/entrepreneurship.html

Why I am not reviewing Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century – updated again

It’s 700 pages long and goes on about Marx. Some people were watching the other channel when the Berlin Wall fell.

thomas-piketty-economist-will-hutton

My 1 o’clock lecture at ANU in 1990 was next to a room rented out ironically from 12 to 1 to the Campus Trots and then to the Campus Christians for an hour of prayer to another saviour.

The Twitter summary of Piketty is this:

Karl Marx wasn’t wrong, just early. Pretty much. Sorry, capitalism. #inequalityforevah

The only Marxist I bother with is Jon Elster. He is a leading proponent of Analytical Marxism and one of the last polymaths. Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster’s books one:

would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster’s purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts.

All of Elster’s books and writings are worth reading, including

  • Ulysses and the Sirens (1979);
  • Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality (1983);
  • Making Sense of Marx (1985); and
  • An Introduction to Karl Marx (1986).

As Jon Elster noted:

Marxian economics is, with a few exceptions, intellectually dead

and Marx’s labour theory of value is:

useless at best, harmful and misleading at its not infrequent worst.

To go on with my non-review, I will quote Tyler Cowen:

The crude seven-word version of Piketty’s argument is “rates of return on capital won’t diminish.”

Piketty’s reasons why rates of return on capital won’t diminish are fairly specific and restricted to only a small share of capital.

.. In any case this is pure speculation and Piketty’s entire argument depends upon it.

… Piketty converts the entrepreneur into the rentier.

To the extent capital reaps high returns, it is by assuming risk…

Yet the concept of risk hardly plays a role in the major arguments of this book.

Once you introduce risk, the long-run fate of capital returns again becomes far from certain.

In fact the entire book ought to be about risk but instead we get the rentier…

Overall, the main argument is based on two (false) claims.

First, that capital returns will be high and non-diminishing, relative to other factors.

Second, that this can happen without significant increases in real wages.

Piketty’s advocacy of a top marginal income tax rate of 80% and a an international treaty for a wealth tax are wildly impractical and destructive of economic growth and entrepreneurship. His advocacy of 60% marginal tax rates on incomes above $200,000 strike at the heart of the professional and managerial occupations that are the backbone of day-to-day capitalism. Piketty’s wealth tax would tax the homes and the retirement savings of the ordinary middle class:

  • wealth below 200,000 euros be taxed at a rate of 0.1 percent,
  • wealth between 200,000 and one million euros at 0.5 percent,
  • wealth between one million and five million euros at 1.0 percent, and
  • wealth above five million euros at 2.0 percent.

Piketty’s reason for these high top tax rates is not to bring in more revenue or to redistribute wealth to poor and the downtrodden but simply “to put an end to such incomes.” Harsanyi argues that:

Like many progressives, Piketty doesn’t really believe that most people deserve their wealth anyway, so confiscating it presents no real moral dilemma.

He also argues that we can measure a person’s productivity and the value of a worker (namely, low-skilled labourers) while arguing that other groups of workers (namely, the kind of people he doesn’t admire) are bequeathed undeserved, “arbitrary” salaries. What tangible benefit does a stockbroker or a kulak or an explanatory journalist offer society, after all?

This takes me back to Jon Elster who had this to say on socialism:

Optimism and wishful thinking have been features of socialist thought from its inception.

In Marx, for instance, two main premises appear to be that whatever is desirable is possible, and that whatever is desirable and possible is inevitable.

…It has become clear that classical socialism massively underestimated the importance of economic incentives.

Greg Mankiw is less harsh, but still to the point:

Like President Obama and others on the left, Piketty wants to spread the wealth around.

Another philosophical viewpoint is that it is the government’s job to enforce rules such as contracts and property rights and promote opportunity rather than to achieve a particular distribution of economic outcomes.

No amount of economic history will tell you that John Rawls (and Thomas Piketty) offers a better political philosophy than Robert Nozick (and Milton Friedman).

John Rawls was actually very much alive to the importance of incentives in a just and prosperous society.

Unequal incomes might turn out to be to the advantage of everyone. Work effort and entrepreneurial alertness respond to incentives; incentives channel people into the occupations and jobs where they produce more.

Rawls lent qualified support to the idea of a flat-rate consumption tax because these taxes:

impose a levy according to how much a person takes out of the common store of goods and not according to how much he contributes.

A simple way to have a progressive consumption tax is to exempt all savings from taxation.

With his emphasis on fair distributions of income, Rawls’ initial appeal was to the Left. Left-wing thinkers then started to dislike his acceptance of capitalism and his tolerance of large discrepancies in income and wealth.

It’s impossible to make the workers better off by taxing capital. The optimal rate of tax on income from capital is zero. This is why the Mirrlees Review of the UK taxation system argued for zero taxation of the returns to capital.

Robert Lucas estimated in 1990 that eliminating all taxes on income from capital would increase the U.S. capital stock by about 35% and consumption by 7%.

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (2014) found that eliminating the corporate income tax completely would raise the U.S. capital stock (machines and buildings) by 23%, output by 8% and the real wages of unskilled and skilled workers each by 12%.

Book reviews serve the same purpose as film reviews. They are filters for our time. Do you agree?

I made a time management decision to not read a long book plenty of others reviewed and some even understood.

As for the growing income inequality, there is a long literature dating back 25-years arguing that skill-biased technological change is increasing the returns to investing in education as Gary Becker blogged in 2011:

Earnings inequality in the United States and many other countries has increased greatly since the late 1970s, due in large measure to globalization and technological progress that raised the productivity of more educated and more skilled individuals.

While the average American college graduate earned about a 40% premium over the average high school graduate in 1980, this premium increased to over 70% in 2000.

The good side of this higher education-based earnings inequality is that it induced more young men, and especially more young women, to go to and finish college.

The bad side is that many sufficiently able children could not take advantage of the greater returns from a college education because their parents did not prepare them to perform well in school, or they went to bad schools, or they lacked the financing to attend college.

As a result, the incomes of high school dropouts and of many high school graduates stagnated while incomes boomed for many persons who graduated college, and even more so for those with post graduate education.

There is nothing new under the sun.

EARTH DAY: SPIRITUALLY UPLIFTING, INTELLECTUALLY DEBASED by Julian L. Simon

During the first great Earth Week in 1970 there was panic.

The public’s outlook for the planet was unrelievedly gloomy.

The doom saying environmentalists – of whom the dominant figure was Paul Ehrlich – raised the alarm: The oceans and the Great Lakes were dying; impending great famines would be seen on television starting in 1975; the death rate would  quickly increase due to pollution; and rising prices of increasingly-scarce raw materials would lead to a reversal in the past centuries’ progress in the standard of living.

… On average, people throughout the world  have been living longer and eating better than ever before.

Fewer people die of famine nowadays than in earlier centuries.

The real prices of food and of every other raw material are lower now than in earlier decades and centuries, indicating a trend of increased natural-resource availability rather than increased scarcity.

The major air and water pollutions in the advanced countries have been lessening rather than worsening.

Julian L. Simon

Via Julian Simon memorial site

HT: The Climate Counsel

‘Recycling is garbage’ from the NY Times in 1996; it broke the record for hate mail | AEIdeas

Mark Perry for Earth Day linked to the classic 1996 New York Times Magazine article “Recycling is Garbage” by New York Times columnist John Tierney. He wrote about those millions who suffer from “garbage guilt,” as Tierney describes the religious components of recycling.

recycling

Tierney’s argument was that recycling may be the most wasteful activity in modern America:

Rinsing out tuna cans and tying up newspapers may make you feel virtuous, but it’s a waste of time and money, a waste of human and natural resources.

You can understand why Tierney’s article set the record for the greatest amount of hate mail in New York Times history.

via Recommended reading for Earth Day: ‘Recycling is garbage’ from the NYTimes in 1996; it broke the record for hate mail | AEIdeas.

The case against industry policy in one photo

Industry policy is back in vogue in New Zealand:

  • The National Party-led Government is keen on smart specialisation.
  • The Labour Party wants a Manufacturing Upgrade targeting R&D and innovation.

The case against picking winners is the answer to the question in the picture of the weirdoes below.

One of the people in the photo won a competition on the radio that offered free company photos. That is how Microsoft could afford the photo. That photo became one of the most iconic photos in American business history.

I first saw this photo 12-14 years ago at a presentation, so who first designed the caption is lost in time.

Institutional Economics: Robert Shiller, Ex-Ante and Ex-Post

In his 2009 book with George Ackerlof, Robert Shiller, who shared a Nobel  Prize in economics for his work developing behavioural finance wrote:

there has been one way, at least in the past, in which almost everyone could become at least moderately rich

… Invest it for the long term in the stock market, where the rate of return after adjustment for inflation has been 7% per year’

Shiller’s ex-post observations on stock market returns in 2009 do not sit well with his ex-ante prediction in 1996:

long run investors should stay out of the market for the next decade.

via Institutional Economics: ‘Light Reading It’s Not’ – Forbes.

The joint advice of both the efficient market advocates such as Eugene Fama and the behavioural finance theorists on how to manage your retirement and other long-term savings are the same:

Buy and hold. Diversify. Put your money in index funds.

Pay attention to the one thing you can control–costs–and keep them as low as possible.

Index-linked or passive investment funds minimise their trading of shares and do not hire research departments so their costs and fees are far lower than investments funds that trade actively in the market trying to beat the market.

About 97% of these active funds fail to beat the market. The rest may just have been lucky.

  • The average actively managed investment must underperform the indexed investment when all costs are deducted.
  • The actively managed investments that beat the indexed investments this year fail to consistently beat the index in the future.

Investors can win higher returns by shouldering more risk and all that entails, and the reward for bearing risk vary over time and across assets.

Entrepreneurship and the Market Process with Israel Kirzner

Do monopoly concessions increase or decrease gambling?

Do monopoly concessions such as for casinos and the TAB increase or decrease gambling? Is the under-supply of output by a monopoly a good or a bad thing when the good itself is seen as a bad.

James Buchanan started his 1973 paper ‘A defence of organised crime?’ quoting Samuel Butler:

… we should try to make the self-interest of cads a little more coincident with that of decent people

Buchanan’s simple idea is that if a monopoly restricts the output of goods, a standard analytical result, then it must also restrict the output of bads! Buchanan end’s his paper with:

It is not from the public-spiritedness of the leaders of the Cosa Nostra that we should expect to get a reduction in the crime rate but from their regard for their own self-interests

The Cosa Nostra did have a reputation for running honest casinos and keeping crime down nearby.

If an illegal monopoly or cartel becomes competitive and barriers to entry are eliminated, in the long run, more illegal goods will be traded at the new equilibrium.

Should gambling outlets be public monopolies because they would be smaller, badly run and slow to innovate? The monopolisation of bads may shift us in the direction of social optimality. Buchanan, of course, adds that:

The analysis does nothing toward suggesting that enforcement agencies should not take maximum advantage of all technological developments in crime prevention, detection and control.

Tom Sargent’s 12 lessons from economics for public policy

Tom Sargent is a life-long Democrat who is old enough to remember when Democrats were fiscal conservatives.

At a graduation speech at Berkeley, Sargent listed these lessons:

    1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.
    2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.
    3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.
    4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.
    5. There are trade-offs between equality and efficiency.
    6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well-meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.
    7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.
    8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made.
    9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).
    10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.
    11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).
    12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates

Experts Are at a Loss on Investing

Harry M. Markowitz won the Nobel Prize in economics as the father of “modern portfolio theory,” the idea that people shouldn’t put all of their eggs in one basket, but should diversify their investments.

Markowitz split most of his his own retirement investments down the middle, put half in a stock fund and the other half in a conservative, low-interest investment.

Markowitz invested more wisely than some fellow Nobelists who have significant portions of their nest eggs in money market accounts, some of the lowest-returning investment vehicles available.

via Experts Are at a Loss on Investing – Los Angeles Times.

The rationality postulate is under attack from the other people are stupid fallacy-updated

The rationality postulate is under attack from the other people are stupid fallacy: not you, not me, not present company, of course, but the nameless them over there; the perpetually baffled, every man jack of them.

These no-hopers are deemed competent to vote and DRIVE CARS, but they cannot get their head around a credit card. How the them over there find their way to work every morning must be a mystery to behavioural economists. One summary of behavioural labour economics is this:

The key empirical findings from field research in behavioural economics imply that individuals can make systematic errors or be put off by complexity, that they procrastinate, and that they hold non-standard preferences and non-standard beliefs

I found the chapter in Tullock and McKenzie’s book on token economies in mental hospitals to be most enlightening.

The tokens were for spending money at the hospital canteen and trips to town and other privileges. They were earned by keeping you and your area clean and helping out with chores.

The first token economies were for chronic, treatment-resistant psychotic inpatients.

In 1977, a major study, still considered a landmark, successfully showed the superiority of a token economy compared to the standard treatments. Despite this success, token economies disappeared from the 1980s on.

Experiments which would now be unethical showed that the occupational choices and labour supply of certified lunatics responded to incentives in the normal, predictable way.

For example, tokens were withdrawn for helping clean halls and common areas. The changes in occupational choice and reductions in labour supply was immediate and as predicted by standard economics.

Some patients would steal the tokens for other patients, so the token individually marked, and the thefts almost stopped. Crime must pay even for criminally insane inpatients.

Kagel reported that:

The results have not varied with any identifiable trait or characteristic of the subjects of the token economy – age, IQ, educational level, length of hospitalization, or type of diagnosis.

Behavioural economics is an excellent example of how engaging in John S. Mill’s truth that engaging with people who are partly or totally wrong sharpens your arguments, improves their presentation and deepens your analysis.

People have a better understanding of rationality such as through the work of Vernon Smith on ecological and constructivist rationality and of how people deal with human frailties and correct error through specialisation, exchange and learning.

  • George Stigler in his Existence of X-inefficiency paper opposed attributing behaviour to errors because error can explain everything so it explains nothing until we have a theory of error.
  • Kirzner in “XInefficiency, Error and the Scope for Entrepreneurship” wrote that error is pervasive in economic processes. Rational Misesian human actors are human enough to err.

What is inefficient about the world, said Kirzner, is at each instant, an opportunity for improvements, in one way or another and is yet simply not yet noticed. The lure of pure entrepreneurial profits harnesses the systematic elimination of errors and points the way to the market generated institutions necessary for steady social improvements to emerge. Brand names are an obvious example of an institution to overcome doubts about product quality. Middle-men and brokers specialise in performing much of the calculation burdens in their markets.

Many still compare real-world marketplaces to idealised regulation overseen by bureaucrats free of the very biases they are nudging us along to overcome. There are real constraints that limit the options available to fix what are seen as problems to be solved.

Vernon Smith when asked about behavioural economics, wondered how so cognitively flawed a creature made it out of the caves. Vernon Smith argued that the answer had a lot to do with the institutions that emerged to overcome human limitations:

Markets are about recognizing that information is dispersed in all social systems and that the problem of society is to find, devise, and discover institutions that incentivize and enable people to make the right decisions without anyone having to tell them what to do.

Smith and Hayek both posit that market institutions rather than individuals bear the primary cognitive burden in coordinating economic activity. To quote Vernon Smith:

What we learn from experiments is that any group of people can walk into a room, be incentivized with a well-defined private economic environment, have the rules of the oral double auction explained to them for the first time, and they can make a market that usually converges to a competitive equilibrium, and is 100 per cent efficient—they maximize the gains from exchange—within two or three repetitions of a trading period.

Yet knowledge is dispersed, with no participant informed of market supply and demand, or even understanding what that means.

This strikingly demonstrates what Adam Smith called ”a certain propensity in human nature . . . to truck, barter, and exchange one thing for another”

These double oral auctions converged to the competitive price even with as few as three or four sellers with neither the buyers nor sellers knowing anything of the values or costs of others in the market. Price-taking behaviour was not necessary to reach these competitive outcomes.

Behavioural economics is a clumsy way of discussing the pervasiveness of errors because insufficient attention is paid to decentralised, emergent market processes that correct them, often long ago.

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