22 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economics of information, economics of media and culture, income redistribution, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking
Tags: antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, expressive voting, make-work bias, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, voter demographics
Millennial politics is simple, really. Young people support big government, unless it costs any more money. They’re for smaller government, unless budget cuts scratch a program they’ve heard of. They’d like Washington to fix everything, just so long as it doesn’t run anything.
Young people lean way left on issues like gay marriage, pot, and immigration. On abortion and gun control, they swim closer to the rest of the electorate.
But on economics, they’re all over the map. You get the sense, reading the Reason Foundation and Pew studies, that a savvy pollster could trick a young person into supporting basically any economic policy in the world with the right combination of triggers. Conservative and liberal partisans can cherry-pick this survey to paint Millennials as whatever ideology they want.
On spending:
Conservatives can say: 65 percent of Millennials would like to cut spending.
Liberals can say: 62 percent would like to spend more on infrastructure and jobs.
On taxes:
Conservatives can say: 58 percent of Millennials want to cut taxes overall.
Liberals can say: 66 percent want to raise taxes on the wealthy.
On government’s role in our lives:
Conservatives can say: 66 percent of Millennials say that “when something is funded by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful.”
Liberals can say: More than two-thirds think the government should guarantee food, shelter, and a living wage.
On government size:
Conservatives can say: 57 percent want smaller government with fewer services (if you mention the magic word “taxes”).
Liberals can say: 54 percent want larger government with more services (if you don’t mention “taxes”).
via Millennials’ Political Views Don’t Make Any Sense – The Atlantic and This poll proves that millennials have totally incoherent political views – Vox.
19 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice
Colin Craig has resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. If the head of the Sensible Sentencing Trust Garth McVicar succeeded him and he was to win an electorate seat, the table below shows how the NZ Parliament would have changed at the last general election in 2014.
| Party name
|
Party Votes won
|
Party seat entitlement
|
No. of electorate seats won
|
No. of list MPs
|
Total MPs
|
|
% of MPs
|
|
ACT New Zealand
|
0.69%
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
0.83%
|
|
Conservative
|
3.97%
|
5
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
4.13%
|
|
Green Party
|
10.70%
|
13
|
0
|
13
|
13
|
|
10.74%
|
|
Labour Party
|
25.13%
|
31
|
26
|
5
|
31
|
|
25.62%
|
|
Māori Party
|
1.42%
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
1.65%
|
|
National Party
|
47.07%
|
57
|
41
|
16
|
57
|
|
47.11%
|
|
New Zealand First Party
|
8.66%
|
11
|
0
|
11
|
11
|
|
9.09%
|
|
United Future
|
0.22%
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
*
|
0.83%
|
|
Totals
|
97.86%
|
120
|
71
|
50
|
121
|
|
100.00%
|
If Garth McVicar was to win an electorate seat, and with no other changes in the party vote in the 2014 election, the National Party would have lost three list MPs, the Labour Party one list MP, which was the list seat of its current leader, and the Greens would lose one list MP – that MP supports homoeopathic medicine as a cure for Ebola.
Little wonder that the National Party doesn’t seem to want the Conservative Party in Parliament as the majority of its seats come off their total and every bill in Parliament will depend upon the Conservative Party support unless they can get the Maori party on board. The Maori party votes against the National Party the majority of time in Parliament.
18 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice
If Colin Craig is deposed tomorrow as the leader of the Conservative Party of New Zealand, his party will fall apart and run as a rump at the next election. The tables below discuss what might happen to the party vote that drifts back to the major parties with the collapse of the Conservative Party.
Table 1: 2014 general election status quo
| Party name |
Party Votes won |
Party seat entitlement |
No. of electorate seats won |
No. of list MPs |
Total MPs |
|
% of MPs |
| ACT New Zealand |
0.69% |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0.83% |
| Green Party |
10.70% |
14 |
0 |
14 |
14 |
|
11.57% |
| Labour Party |
25.13% |
32 |
27 |
5 |
32 |
|
26.45% |
| Māori Party |
1.32% |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
1.65% |
| National Party |
47.04% |
60 |
41 |
19 |
60 |
|
49.59% |
| New Zealand First Party |
8.66% |
11 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
|
9.09% |
| United Future |
0.22% |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
* |
0.83% |
| Totals |
93.76% |
120 |
71 |
50 |
121 |
|
100.00% |
As the table 2 below shows, if about 2% of the party vote of the Conservative party drifts back to National, and 2/10th of a percentage point of that party vote of the Conservative Party going to United Future, the National Party not only wins a majority in Parliament, the overhang in Parliament disappears as well. The United Future Party seat comes off the representation of the Labour Party if its party vote exceeds 0.4%. There are no other changes of note.
Table 2: 2014 general election with Conservative party rump
| Party name |
Party Votes won |
Party seat entitlement |
No. of electorate seats won |
No. of list MPs |
Total MPs |
|
% of MPs |
| ACT New Zealand |
0.89% |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0.83% |
| Green Party |
10.70% |
13 |
0 |
13 |
13 |
|
10.83% |
| Labour Party |
25.43% |
31 |
27 |
4 |
31 |
|
25.83% |
| Māori Party |
1.32% |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
1.67% |
| National Party |
49.07% |
61 |
41 |
20 |
61 |
|
50.83% |
| New Zealand First Party |
9.16% |
11 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
|
9.17% |
| United Future |
0.42% |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0.83% |
| Totals |
96.99% |
120 |
71 |
49 |
120 |
|
100.00% |
The National Party almost won a majority in the last election so only a small amount of the Conservative Party’s party vote drifting back to it more so than the other parties can boost it to 61 votes and an absolute majority in its own right. Tomorrow is a big day for the future of New Zealand politics and the chances of the Left winning government any time soon.
17 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, environmental economics, global warming, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking
Tags: cap and trade, carbon tax, carbon trading, climate alarmism, expressive voting, fossil fuel disinvestment, global warming, rational irrationality, Robert Stavins
17 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in economics of education, entrepreneurship, human capital, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle
Tags: antimarket bias, creative distraction, expressive voting, make-work bias, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, technological unemployment
15 Jun 2015
by Jim Rose
in applied welfare economics, economics of media and culture, income redistribution, movies, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, TV shows
Tags: comedy, Left-wing hypocrisy, Leftover Left, Occupy Wall Street, top 1%, Twitter left
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