Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, PPP, 1956-2013, $US

Figure 1: Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2013, $US

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 1 shows that New Zealand lost two decades of growth between 1974 and 1992 after level pegging with Australia for the preceding two decades.

New Zealand returned to trend growth between 1992 and 2007. New Zealand did not make up the lost growth of the previous two decades to catch up to Australia.

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, base 100 = 1974, 1956-2013, $US

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

In Figure 2, a flat line equates to a 1.9% GDP annual growth rate; a falling line is a below trend growth rate; a rising line is an above 1.9% growth rate.

Figure 2 shows that there was a 34% drop against trend between 1974 and 1992; a return to trend growth and slightly better between 1992 and 2007; and then a recession to 2010.

Australia had its ups and downs since 1956 but essentially grew at the trend growth rate of 1.85% since 1970. The so-called resources boom in Australia does not show up in Figures 1 or 2.

There was no growth rebound in New Zealand to recover the lost ground, either in the lost decades between 1974 and 1992, or after the Global Financial Crisis. The strong GDP growth in Australia after that Keating recession in 1991 is an example of the country recovering lost ground after a recession – See Figure 2.

A trend growth rate of 1.9% is the 20th century trend growth rate that Edward Prescott currently estimates for the global industrial leader, which is the United States of America.

Why does the Left oppose higher petrol prices?

https://twitter.com/uRntUs/status/533093857307529217

A nice history of climate alarmism

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George Stigler vindicated: Learning the Wealth of Nations

Tyler Cowen has drawn attention to a 2011 paper on policy learning in the 1970s and 80s by Francisco J. Buera, Alexander Monge-Narajo, and Giorgio E. Primiceri was published in Econometrica in 2011. Their paper found that:

1. Policymakers have priors about how good the market economy is, and they revise those views — and thus revise policy — as they observe their own growth results and those of their neighbors.

2. A simple learning model predicts about 97% of the policy choices observed in the data.  The model accounts for more than 77% of the observed policy switches over a three-year time window.

3. Evolving beliefs — and not just the fixed demographic characteristics of countries — are critical for understanding policy decisions.

4. It was probably the growth collapse of the late 1970s for interventionist countries which led to a greater reliance on markets.

5. Adjustment toward better-performing policies is often quite slow.  In part this is because policymakers attribute the superior performance of other countries to heterogeneity rather than policy per se.

This record of politicians learning from failure and success at home and abroad is a vindication of George Stigler’s views of the relative unimportance of economists in influencing public policy.

There was no neoliberal conspiracy that captured the hearts and minds of politicians through mass hypnosis in the 1970s and 1980s as both the Left over Left and the Twitter Left like to suggest

The policies of Friedman had to wait, as George Stigler predicted, for a market to develop among interest groups and the voting public. Once that market developed, Milton Friedman, FA Hayek and others looked like leaders of an opinion.

A few years earlier, Friedman and Hayek were just angry men in the wilderness.

The reason for this sudden change in their public profile and purported influence on the shape the course of public policy in th 1970s and 1980s onwards was political parties were yet to conclude that the existing policy regime had failed irretrievably, and that the successes of neighbours on economic reform might be worth imitating locally.

Once politicians, the voting public and interest groups concluded that new solutions are needed, just as Stigler predicted, the ideas for reform been around for a long time came to the front.

via http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/learning-the-wealth-of-nations.html

The Twitter Left is replacing the Left over Left

On the withering away of the Labour Party

Bang in the middle

John Quiggin made an interesting point the other day that explains why the Australian Labor Party caucus is no longer the cream of the working class:

In 1945, the largest single occupational group in Australia (and an archetypal group of Labor supporters) were railwaymen (there were almost no women in the industry).

By the 1970s, the largest occupational group, also becoming the archetypal group of Labor supporters. were schoolteachers.

Quiggin was not making the point I am making, but his data was instructive.

On the decline

The traditional labour voter of days gone by was socially conservative, fiscally conservative, strict on educational standards and believed in hard work, self-improvement and being frugal. They agreed with Dalton Trumbo who said:

I never considered the working class anything other than something to get out of.

Bringing Labor together

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HT: sinclair davidson

The Greens are the heirs of the 19th century Tory squires

Jim Rose's avatarUtopia, you are standing in it!

The Greens are no more than a reincarnation of the 19th century British Tory Radicals with their aristocratic sensibilities that combined strong support for centralised power with a paternalistic concern for the plight of the poor:

  • 19th century Tory radicals opposed the middle classes and the aesthetic ugliness they associated with an industrial economy; and
  • Like the 19th century Tory Radicals, today’s green gentry see the untamed middle classes as the true enemy.

Environmentalists have an aristocratic vision of a stratified, terraced society in which the knowing ones would order society for the rest of us.

Environmentalism offered the extraordinary opportunity to combine the qualities of virtue and selfishness

Many left-wingers thought they were expressing an entirely new and progressive philosophy as they mouthed the same prejudices as Trollope’s 19th century Tory squires: attacking any further expansion of industry and commerce as impossibly vulgar, because it was:

View original post 346 more words

Trends in union membership in New Zealand, Australia, the UK and the USA

The Encyclopaedia of New Zealand says that the rate of union membership dropped sharply to under 20% when the Employment Contracts Act was passed in 1991 using the chart below.

Figure 1: Percentage of union members

Percentage of union members

The OECD union density data, which allows international comparisons back to 1970, tells a different story. OECD data on union membership in New Zealand started in 1970.

Figure 2: Union density,New Zealand, Australia, the UK and USA 1970-2013

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Source: OECD Stats Extract

Note: Trade union density corresponds to the ratio of  wage and salary earners that are trade union members, divided by the total number of wage and salary earners (OECD Labour Force Statistics).

Figure 2 above shows that union membership has been in a long slow decline in New Zealand since the mid-1970s. This is been pretty much the pattern all round the world.

The much hated Employment Contracts Act 1991, much hated by the Left over Left, doesn’t really show up in the union density figures in figure 2. There is no sudden break in trend obvious in figure 2.

The longer time series in union membership in figure 1 compiled by the Encyclopaedia of New Zealand has long gaps between the data observations. Because of this, the sharp decline in union membership from the late 1970s, which it actually show up in its start-up , is not sufficiently distinguished from subsequent events because of the long gaps between observations reported in the figure 1.

If anything, union membership stopped declining in New Zealand in the late 1990s. Stabilising at about 20% of wage and salary earners.

Union membership continued to decline slowly in Australia, the UK and the USA  subsequent to 1998. Union membership stabilised in New Zealand by contrast. Perhaps the Employment Contracts act should be able to claim credit for that?

The economics of the late Gough Whitlam

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A Report on ‘Can Hearts and Minds be Bought?’ The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq by Eli Berman, Jacob N. Shapiro and Joseph H. Felter

jamie4400's avatarA World of Economics

600_iraq

Can hearts and minds be bought? A metaphorical question posed to ask whether government spending can aid counterinsurgency. In their paper, Berman et al. seek to answer this basic question using current literature, recent data and a model of counterinsurgency.

They chose Iraq for their research because it is presently significant, there is a large amount of data and most importantly, because it is characterised by insurgency and not by ‘conventional warfare’. It is this characteristic, argued by Berman et al. that will be seen more often in future conflicts that is so crucial to understand. Another important facet to note is that current ‘US Army counterinsurgency doctrine’ is not based on any social scientific theory; thereby making the need to understand insurgency more vital to aid spending.

By using current data, Berman et al. find on the whole that the correlation between reconstruction spending and violence across Iraqi districts…

View original post 2,864 more words

Michael Pusey, John Stone and the role of papist conspiracies in economic rationalism in Canberra

Michael Pusey looked into the background of senior executives at the Treasury in his book on Economic Rationalism  in Canberra published in the early 1990s

He found that many of these senior executive service members attended private schools.

Many of these senior executives were Catholic school boys as was the Prime Minister of the day, his state premier and the majority of the high court too.

Pusey did not pursue this papist conspiracy – a private school boy conspiracy is far more politically correct for sociologists.

Pusey argued that economics is a set of dangerous ideas that should be exposed to otherwise impressionable students only at the graduate level and when studying politics, philosophy, and economic degree (PPE).

Pusey was speechless when retired Treasury Secretary John Stone asked at a conference where he (Stone) went wrong. Stone studied physics as an undergraduate, and was not exposed to the dangerous ideas that are economics until his PPE at Oxford. Stone followed the exact path that Pusey suggested to replace specialist economics degrees.

All good things comes to those that wait – they deserve each other

For those who have better things to do in their lives than follow minor parties in Australian politics, Clive Palmer is from a socially conservative economic nationalist party called the Palmar United Party; Bandt is from a socially liberal economic nationalist party– the Greens.  Both are MPs sitting in the  Australian House of Representatives on the cross-benches.

HT: Australian Libertarian Society

Australia’s carbon debate mirrors global follies

via lowyinterpreter.org

The Australian carbon tax repeal

carbon tax good riddance

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