Civil disobedience and political activism are overrated

Most activists take to the streets because if they ran openly for office, they would struggle to get 1% of the vote. Their best options are entryism and branch stacking.

The strength of democracy lies in the ability of small groups of concerned and thoughtful citizens to band together and change things by running for office and winning elections.

That is how new Australian parties such as the ALP, the country party, DLP, Australian democrats and Greens changed Australia. One Nation even had its 15 minutes of fame. Australian state upper houses even have Christian and shooters parties and many independents. Many started in someone’s living room.

Some find democracy frustrating because they cannot win openly at the ballot box even under proportional representation in federal and state upper houses.

When the “shooters” party and “no aircraft noise” party can win ahead of you, it is time to accept that your message of struggle and direct action simply does not resonate with the electorate.

John Rawls, discussing non-violent direct action, argues that in a nearly just society, those who resort to civil disobedience present themselves to the majority to show that, in their considered opinion, the principles of justice governing cooperation amongst free and equal persons have not been respected.

Rawls argues that civil disobedience is never covert or secretive; it is only ever committed in public, openly, and with fair notice to legal authorities. Openness and publicity, even at the cost of having one’s protest frustrated, offers ways for the protesters to show their willingness to deal fairly with authorities.

Rawls argues:

  • for a public, non-violent, conscientious yet political act contrary to law being done (usually) with the aim of bringing about a change in the law or policies of the government;
  • that appeals to the sense of justice of the majority;
  • which may be direct or indirect;
  • within the bounds of fidelity to the law; and
  • whose protesters are willing to accept punishment. Although civil disobedience involves breaking the law, it is for moral rather than selfish reasons; the willingness to accept arrest is proof of the integrity of the act.

Rawls argues, and too many forget, that civil disobedience and dissent more generally contribute to the democratic exchange of ideas by forcing the champions of dominant opinion to defend their views.

Legitimate non-violent direct action are publicity stunts to gain attention and provoke debate within the democratic framework, where we resolve our differences by trying to persuade each other and convince the electorate.

Too many acts of non-violent direct action aim to impose their will on others rather than peaceful protests designed to bring about democratic change in the laws or policies of the incumbent government. That ‘might does not make right’ is fundamental to the rule of law.

No more witty politicians

Did the crowd boo when Gough Whitlam was so ill-mannered as to refer to Kerr’s cur? Did the crowd at the steps of Parliament chant ‘manners, Gough, manners’ rather than ‘shame, Fraser, shame’?

When Gough was challenged by a voter for his view on the contentious issue of abortion, hoping to catch him out, Whitlam replied that he was for abortion and in the heckler’s case, he wished that abortion would be retrospective. Everyone laughed and Gough got off the hook.

30 years ago when public meetings in elections were raucous affairs rather than photo opportunities, being able to give as good as you get was a key political skill.

Public meetings were tests of a politician’s mantle and those that did not fight back were judged to be weak. Stand-up comics had easier initiations.

Wit has lost its place in public discourse.

Robert Muldoon pinged the famous insult “New Zealanders who emigrate to Australia raise the IQs of both countries”.

Consider David Lange:

  • Micheal Bassett was a member of parliament and a cousin on my father’s side of the family. My father delivered him and it became plain in later days that he must have dropped him.
  • To US Ambassador H. Monroe Browne, who owned a racehorse called Lacka Reason: “You are the only ambassador in the world to race a horse named after your country’s foreign policy”.
  • And I’m going to give it to you if you hold your breath just for a moment…I can smell the uranium on it as you lean towards me.
  • …a man whose life is so boring that if it flashed past he wouldn’t be in it.

Paul Keating’s contributions to Australian culture would be lost:

  •  He described his opponents as “mangy maggots”, “intellectual rust buskets”, “gutless spivs”, “foul-mouthed grubs” and “painted, perfumed gigolos”.
  • Keating said of Howard: “From this day onwards, Howard will wear his leadership like a crown of thorns, and in the parliament I’ll do everything to crucify him”.
  • On Andrew Peacock: “A soufflé doesn’t rise twice”.
  • On Wilson Tuckey: “He’d be flat out counting past ten”.

@greenpeaceNZ The expressive politics of action on global warming @RusselNorman

Global warming is part of a political theatre that is made up of the symbols we boo and cheer.

People gain pleasure, excitement and self-definition for cheering for particular parties and worthy causes in the same way as they cheer and boo for sports teams.

Geoffrey Brennan, in Climate Change: A Rational Choice Politics View, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, July 2009, argues that we will see many countries acting unilaterally to introduce carbon emission policies because expressive voters cheer for such policies.

Brennan argued that the nature of expressive concerns is such that significant reductions in real incomes are probably not politically sustainable in the long term. This suggested to him that much of the carbon reduction action will be limited to modest reductions of a largely token character.

There are many expressive voting concerns that politicians must balance to stay in office and the environment is but one of these. Once climate change policies start to actually become costly, expressive voting support for these policies will fall away.

Abbott’s big bad new tax rhetoric in the last two Australian elections split away the working class and lower-middle class Labor voters who worry more about bread and butter issues.

The inner city Green voters’ high incomes allow them to be more indulgent as to what they cheer and boo for at the ballot box. As a group, Green party voters have the highest average incomes. These high incomes act as a buffer against policies that are otherwise costly to them. But if you scratch an inner city Green voter’s superannuation entitlements, you will find a rather raw hip-pocket middle-class voter.

In Demand for Environmental Goods: Evidence from Voting Patterns on California Initiatives: Evidence, Journal of Law and Economics, April 1997, Matthew Kahn and John Matsusaka studied voting behaviour on 16 environmental ballot propositions to estimate the demand for environmental goods.

  • In most cases, rising  incomes and price changes can explain most of the variation in voting; it is not essential to introduce non-economic concepts such as political ideologies.
  • An important price of environmental goods is reduced incomes in the construction, farming, forestry, and manufacturing industries.

Kahn has previously argued that the environmental movement should stop saying that half measures will work and the transition to a green economy will be easy and painless.

The Green parties where I have voted do not sell their message of a green economy and action on global warming as a cause requiring more blood, sweat and tears.

The collapse of the Green vote at the recent Australian federal and state elections demonstrates that many vote Green as a protest vote against the other parties and to feel good about themselves.

The Green vote takes a hammering once Green parties enter into power sharing deals with a government. Green policies are symbols and gestures, not something about half of their voters actually want to see passed into law on a large scale and start paying for in real money.

The economics of the Dallas Buyers Club

Deciding if a new drug is safe is a serious issue. Separate to this is whether the drug is better than existing drugs.

In 1962, an amended law gave the FDA authority to judge if a new drug produced the results for which it had been developed. Formerly, the FDA monitored only drug safety. It previously had only sixty days to decide this. Drug trials can now take up to 10 years.

Who cares if a safe drug works or not? If a new drug does not work or is no better than the existing drugs on the market, the investors in the development of the new drug bear the (unrecoverable) development costs. Capitalism is a profit AND loss system. Losses are a signal that you should try something else.

Sam Peltzman showed in a famous paper in 1973 that these 1962 amendments reduced the introduction of effective new drugs in the USA from an average of forty-three annually in the decade before the 1962 amendments to sixteen annually in the ten years afterwards. No increase in drug safety was identified.

Drugs became available years after they were on the market outside the USA. To quote David Friedman:

“In 1981… the FDA published a press release confessing to mass murder. That was not, of course, the way in which the release was worded; it was simply an announcement that the FDA had approved the use of timolol, a ß-blocker, to prevent recurrences of heart attacks.

At the time timolol was approved, ß-blockers had been widely used outside the U.S. for over ten years.

It was estimated that the use of timolol would save from seven thousand to ten thousand lives a year in the U.S. So the FDA, by forbidding the use of ß-blockers before 1981, was responsible for something close to a hundred thousand unnecessary deaths.”

AZT double-blind trials collapsed in the mid-1980s in the USA because participants sold the drug in the black market.

If memory serves right, Australian drug regulators planned to duplicate these double-blind trials in Australia before approving the drug. Last time I checked, the physiology of Australians was the same as any other human being. What did they plan to find that justified the delay in approving AZT?

The duplicate double-blind AZT trials in Australia were abandoned not because they were mad and evil, but because again the participants sold the drug in the black market. That was to be expected too so the duplicate double-blind AZT trials in Australia in the 1980s were a double evil.

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