Big bills left on the #livingwage sidewalk?

Living wage activists believe that businesses can profitably pay their low-paid workers a lot more. The living wage pay increase will not jeopardise the survival of the business or jobs because their workers will be more productive because of the living wage increase. Morale will be higher and job turnover will be lower. Both of these will increase productivity perhaps enough to offset the increase in labour costs.

In a nutshell, living wage activists have discovered a hitherto untapped entrepreneurial opportunity for profit. These living wage activists are happy to disclose this secret to lower costs to the world at no fee.

What they are arguing is businesses do not notice a profit opportunity that these political activists have noticed and are now publicising widely. Entrepreneurs are leaving money on the table that could easily be snapped up simply by paying their low-paid employers higher wages.

Source: Mancur Olson (1996) “Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Big Bills Left on the Sidewalk: Why Some Nations Are Rich, and Others Poor.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3-24.

This money on the table metaphor is similar to the big bills left on the sidewalk metaphor. There is easy money to be had from paying low-paid workers more because these workers will quickly become more productive because of the higher wages.

Living wage activists do not address why entrepreneurs had not discovered this insight into cost saving themselves. After all, every entrepreneur, every employer knows that if they pay more, they will get a better class of job applicant.

Of course, if this insight by the living wage activists is true, all workers should be given a similar increase in their pay because their productivity will go through the roof as well.

Entrepreneurs profit directly from spotting every new opportunity for profit. They have no reason to turn money down particularly when it is obvious and straight under their nose.

The modern theories of the firm focus, in part or in full on reducing opportunistic behaviour, cheating and fraud in employment relationships. The cost of discovering prices and making and enforcing contracts and getting what you pay for are central to Coase’s theory of the firm put forward in 1937.

The profits of entrepreneurs for running a firm is directly linked from their successful policing of the efforts of employees and sub-contractors to ensure the team and each member perform as promised and individual rewards matched individual contributions (Alchian and Demsetz 1972; Barzel 1987). Alchian and Demsetz’s (1972) theory of the firm focused on moral hazard in team production. As they explain:

Two key demands are placed on an economic organization-metering input productivity and metering rewards.

The main rationale in personnel economics from everything ranging from employer funding of retirement pensions to the structure of promotions and executive pay including stock options is around better rewarding self-motivating employees who strive harder and reducing the costs of monitoring employee effort.

At bottom, the efficiency wage hypothesis is entrepreneurs are unaware of the higher quality and greater self-motivation of better paid recruits for vacancies but wise bureaucrats and farsighted politicians notice these gaps in the market. Bureaucrats and politicians notice these gaps in the market before those who gain from superior entrepreneur alertness to hitherto untapped opportunities for profit do so and instead leave that money on the table.

Inequality is not getting worse and worse says @WJRosenbergCTU!?

Bill Rosenberg of the Council of Trade Unions is one of many economists who point out that income inequality has not been getting worse and worse in New Zealand since the 1990s. Inequality rose sharply in the late 1980s and early 90s but has remained high but nevertheless stable since then as he says in his 2014 paper of trends in living standards:

This is another symptom of the sharp rise in income inequality between the mid 1980s and mid 1990s, which remains high.

His employer, the Council of Trade Unions when it was denouncing the Employment Contracts Act 1991 as the reason for low wages growth has also drawn attention to the early 1990s as a turning point in the relationship between inequality, union bargaining power and wages growth.

As the Council of Trade Unions showed in the chart it published during the last election campaign, which I snapshoted below and also annotated, from 1970 to 1975 there was rapid real wages growth, well in excess of real growth in per capita GDP. This wages breakout was followed by some ups and downs but essentially wages in 1995 were no higher per hour from what they were in 1975. Real wages were about $24 per hour in real terms in New Zealand for about 20 years – from 1975 to 1995.

There was no real GDP per capita growth from 1975 until 1979 nor in the five years leading up to the passage of the Employment Contracts Act 1991. The period leading up to 1975 wages breakout wages was the zenith of union membership; nearly 70% of all workers belonging to a union. Less than 20% do now and less than 10% in the private sector.

Source: Income Gap | New Zealand Council of Trade Unions – Te Kauae Kaimahi.

After staying at about $24 per hour for 20 years from 1975 to the early 1990s, following the passage of the Employment Contracts Act in 1991, average wages in New Zealand have increased steadily from $24 an hour to about $28 per hour by 2014 in one of the most deregulated labour markets in the world.

As Rosenberg, who is chief economist at the Council of Trade Unions, and the Council of Trade Unions itself pointed out, there were major changes in the New Zealand economy in terms of inequality of incomes and union bargaining power in the late 80s and early 1990s.

These changes referred to by the unions as an erosion of workers bargaining power, brought an end to wage stagnation. Steady real wages growth returned after two lost decades: next to no growth in either GDP per capita or incomes of workers.

James Heckman on what money cannot buy including a universal basic income

Source: The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility, James J. HeckmanStefano Mosso, NBER Working Paper No. 19925, February 2014.

@nzlabour – wanted by the sugar police

As the New Zealand Medical Association has pointed out tackling obesity needs to be embedded in everything, from new buildings to school classrooms…

The food industry needs a rev up as well. There’s no reason manufacturers couldn’t already have been reducing sugar and saturated fat in process food. That shows there needs to be some very strong directives from the Government.
Andrew Little, Leader of the Opposition, 19 October 2015

I’m really concerned that we’ve wasted eight years in terms of doing anything about obesity since the government’s been in after they cancelled all programmes, and what they have put in place is timid. They are not treating obesity with the seriousness that they ought to.

They’ve got to a bind now it’s hard to get out of without looking like nanny-state. They’ve got to get over themselves and think about the health of New Zealanders rather than their own political backsides.
Labour Party health spokesperson Annette King, 11 December 2015

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Effective marginal tax rates on single and dual earner families in the USA, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Australia and New Zealand

Some countries including New Zealand and Australia do not give ordinary families much of an incentive to earn more. Effective marginal tax rates on low income families is one of the few times that the Left discovers supply-side economics.

image

Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.

Income tax plus employee Social Security contributions less tax benefits by family structure in the US, Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy, Denmark, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand

Those sensitive and caring northern European welfare states do tax families rather heavily even after accounting for family cash benefits.

image

Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.

Income tax plus employee contributions less cash benefits as % of earnings by family type in USA, Britain, Canada, Sweden, France, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Australia and New Zealand

Those much admired northern European welfare states tax families and individuals much more than do the Anglo-Saxon welfare states.

image

Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.

Why are conspiracy theorists so trusting of citizen initiated binding referendums?

After reflecting far more than I should on some conspiracy laden testimony at Parliament yesterday, one of the things I recall was a demand that the approval of the TPPA be put to binding referendum. The conspiracy theorist at hand was deeply concerned about how that treaty was encroaching on New Zealand’s sovereignty.

Why did this conspiracy theorist assume that a binding referendum will go his way and that opposing conspiracy theorists will not put up their own binding referendums in which he will lose?

The major drawback of citizen initiated referendums is any bunch of people can put them up much to the annoyance of those who will be a victim of the law to be passed.

Just as rotation of power is inherent to Parliamentary democracy, the ability of the crazies to the either the left or the right of you to initiate their own binding citizen initiated referendums. The first referendum is likely to be on one of the following:

  • decriminalising marijuana,
  • banning smoking,
  • voluntary euthanasia,
  • a living wage,
  • life means life in prison,
  • same-sex marriages,
  • marriage is between a man and a woman,
  • entrenching the Treaty of Waitangi,
  • abolishing the Maori seats,
  • entrenching the Maori seats,
  • stop school closures,
  • capital punishment; and
  • future referendums not be binding.

Binding referenda are unworkable. Parliament can’t amend them later as we learn from the implementation of the law and unintended consequences arise. Every new law is riddled with unintended consequences and blow-backs.

Do you really want to have to have another referendum to undo a binding referendum that turned out to be a bit of a mistake? One of the few redeeming features of the Parliament that is sovereign – a parliament for can make or unmake any law whatsoever – is it can repeal its mistakes quickly.

The first citizens initiated referendum was held on 2 December 1995. The question was

Should the number of professional fire-fighters employed full-time in the New Zealand Fire Service be reduced below the number employed in 1 January 1995?

Turnout was low as the referendum was not held in conjunction with a general election, and the measure was voted down easily, with just over 12% voting “Yes” and almost 88% voting “No”.

The key to constitutional design is not empowering you and yours – it is how to restrain those crazies to the Left or the Right of you, as the case may be, when they get their hands on the levers of power, as they surely will in three, six or nine years’ time.

The one inevitability of democracy is power rotates – unbridled power and binding referenda lose their shine when you must share that power with the opposing side of politics who put up their own referendum question.

Constitutions are brakes, not accelerators. Much of constitutional design is about checks and balances and the division of power to slow the impassioned majority down.

Conspiracy theorists that pretty much sore losers. The last thing they want is a binding referendum on a topic on which they are going to vote no.

The problem of constitutional design was ensuring that government powers would be effectively limited. The constitutions were designed and put in place by the classical liberals to check or constrain the power of the state over individuals.

The motivating force of the classical liberals was never one of making government work better or even of insuring that all interests were more fully represented. Built in conflict and institutional tensions were to act as constraints on the power and the size of government.

Modern democracy is government subject to electoral checks. Citizens do have sufficient knowledge and sophistication to vote out leaders who are performing poorly or contrary to their wishes. Modern democracy is the power to replace governments at periodic elections.

The power of the electorate to turn elected officials out of office at the next election gives elected officials an incentive to adopt policies that do not outrage public opinion and administer the policies with some minimum honesty and competence.

Too many want to remake democracy with the faculty workshop as their model. Such deliberation has demanding requirements for popular participation in the democratic process, including a high level of knowledge and analytical sophistication and an absence, or at least severe curtailment, of self-interested motive. The same goes for citizen initiated binding referendums.

The rotation of power is common in democracies, and the worst rise to the top, so it is wise to design constitutional safeguards to minimise the damage done when those crazies to the right or left of you get their chance in office, as they will.

State power was something that classical liberals feared, and the problem of constitutional design is insuring that such power would be effectively limited. Conspiracy theorists lose all their fear of power by drinking on the heady wine of citizens initiated referendum. Be careful for what you wish for.

Income tax and social security contributions as a percentage of gross wage earnings in the USA, Britain, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand

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Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.

Best single defence of charter schools ever

Source: Presidential Proclamation — National Charter Schools Week, 2015 | whitehouse.gov.

Appeared before the Parliamentary committee on the #TPPA today

One of the cathartic things about leaving the public service is I do not have to be deferential to politicians anymore. I can treat them like ordinary people and tell them where to go when they annoy me. In consequence, I am not in any way nervous about appearing before a parliamentary committee.

image

This Parliamentary committee was very unlike the last. Staying on after giving my submission was a pain rather than a learning experience.

A parade of conspiracy theories about the investor state dispute settlement process followed my testimony, which was first of the day. I left after about 45 minutes.

In my testimony, I got a standard question from David Clark, a Labour MP, about whether more time should be that given to make submissions because the complexities of the intellectual property chapter.

Kennedy Graham, the Green MP, then asked a bizarre question about how could New Zealand sign a trade agreement that would compromise environmental standards. His example was a trade agreement where it is agreed to start using coal as a power source again in New Zealand.

So weird with this question that I did not give the obvious answer which was this parade of horribles is so unlikely that it is not a serious question. What I did say was it is very unlikely New Zealand would ever sign such an agreement.

If a parade of horribles and weird hypotheticals is the best you can do, you do not have much of an argument against the TPPA.

Bring back @RusselNorman to save the planet from @NZGreens MPs carbon footprint @DBSeymour

Living the clean, green lifestyle means more than just buying carbon-offs in the same way that indulgences for sins were sold by the mediaeval Catholic Church. Russell Norman was an MP for 9 of the 12 months covered by this chart. He consistently had one of the smallest carbon footprints of a Green MP even when he was still co-leader of the Greens and not just a backbench MP.

image

Source: New Zealand Parliament – Members’ expense disclosure from 1 October to 31 December 2015.

New Zealand MP travel expenses 1 October – 31 December 2015 @DBSeymour

10 of the 14 green MPs have above-average air travel expenses – have an above average carbon footprint for a member of the New Zealand Parliament. It is not easy to be Green.

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Source: New Zealand Parliament – Members’ expense disclosure from 1 October to 31 December 2015.

Implicit tax on a lone parent returning to a low-paid job in the USA, UK, Denmark, France, Germany, Canada, Australia and New Zealand

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Source: Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth – OECD (2016).

@NZGreens MPs travel expenses in the 3 months to 31 December 2015 @dbseymour @JordNZ

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Source: New Zealand Parliament – Members’ expense disclosure from 1 October to 31 December 2015.

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Source: New Zealand Parliament – Members’ expense disclosure from 1 October to 31 December 2015.

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