Sensible Sentencing Trust mistaken to oppose plea bargaining @sst_nz

The sensible sentencing trust wants to greatly curtail if not abolish plea-bargaining. Its petition is motivated by a recent plea bargain where a particularly horrendous child murder was pleaded down to two manslaughter guilty pleas.

I have no knowledge of the details of that case or the plea-bargain other than a male and female caregiver were charged with the brutal murder of a 3-year-old child in their foster care.

image My speculation is two guilty pleas to manslaughter is better than one of the accused getting off through a cutthroat defence.

In this defence, the co-accused blame each other for the worst and minimises their own culpability. Sometimes this backfires. The jury convicts both on the evidence of the other but ignores self-serving testimony. But sometimes a cutthroat defence works and a guilty goes free.

A few years ago a father was accused of murdering his 3 month old twins. The chief witness against him was their mother.

By the end of the trial, his defence counsel made the mother look far more guilty than the accused. So much so that the jury returned a not guilty verdict in 10 minutes.One of the two did it,  but the jury could not work out which one so there was reasonable doubt.

In the case motivating the petition to abolish  plea-bargaining, the accused pleaded down to manslaughter pleas. Both are certain to be punished rather than one perhaps get off.

Plea-bargain are a compromise but they are still justice. The punishment is less but is more certain. Plea-bargaining allows scarce prosecution resources to be better targeted, which means more convictions in those cases that do go to trial.

Following Landes (1971), plea bargaining is a rational response to the costs of trial for prosecutors intent on maximizing the sum of punishments imposed on defendants as a class and for defendants seeking to minimize the expected costs of punishment to them as individuals.

A plea-bargain spares witnesses the ordeal of a trial; justice is speedier, less a severe but more certain as there is no chance of the not guilty verdict at trail. Testifying against an accused found not guilty because a reasonable doubt rather than actual innocence must be disheartening.

Who said mobile phone networks were not contestable?

image

Source: New Zealand Commerce Commission.

Gap in GDP per Australian, Canadian, French, German, Japanese, New Zealander and British hour worked with the USA

This data tells more of a story than I expected. Firstly, New Zealand has not been catching up with the USA. Japan stopped catching up with the USA in 1990. Canada has been drifting away from the USA for a good 30 years now in labour productivity.image

Data extracted on 28 May 2016 05:15 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat from OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2016 – en – OECD.

Australia has not been catching up with the USA much at all since 1970. It has maintained a pretty consistent gap with New Zealand despite all the talk of a resource boom in the Australia; you cannot spot it in this date are here.

Germany and France caught up pretty much with the USA by 1990. Oddly, Eurosclerosis applied from then on terms of growth in income per capita.

European labour productivity data is hard to assess because their high taxes lead to a smaller services sector where the services can be do-it-yourself. This pumps up European labour productivity because of smaller sectors with low productivity growth.

“GMO’s are Dangerous!” – Not  

Source: “GMO’s are Dangerous!” – Not – Cafe Hayek

What is freighted by road? @TransportBlog @JulieAnneGenter

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Source: Ministry of Transport (2014). National Freight Demand Study 2014.

What is freighted by rail? @TransportBlog @JulieAnneGenter

The Greens want to expand rail freight but stop mining coal which is 1/5 of rail tonnage.

image

Source: Ministry of Transport (2014). National Freight Demand Study 2014.

@jamespeshaw what do coastal ships ship when they ship 4.2 million tonnes per year?

If coastal shipping is going to double its freight capacity, and certainly going to need some new ships because the existing ships are unsuited to taking over the current business of road freight.

image

Source: Ministry of Transport (2014). National Freight Demand Study 2014.

@JulieAnneGenter only 21% of freight is contestable by rail

image

Source: International freight transport services | Productivity Commission of New Zealand.

image

Source: International freight transport services | Productivity Commission of New Zealand.

@jamespeshaw only 8% of freight is contestable by coastal shipping

Shipping offers only a tiny bit of competition the rail freight but barely any with road freight

image

Source: International freight transport services | Productivity Commission of New Zealand.

@JulieAnneGenter road, rail & ships are not substitute modes

image

Source: International freight transport services | Productivity Commission of New Zealand.

@jamespeshaw how many domestic shipping services in NZ? 16!

Of the 4.2 billion million tons of annual coastal shipping in New Zealand, 2.32 million tons of that is petroleum products. The majority of coastal shipping is petroleum products redistributed from the one refinery in New Zealand to the rest of the country. You can’t double that which the Greens wanted to because it is already at its upper limit.

image

Source: Coastal shipping and modal freight choice | NZ Transport Agency.

@JulieAnneGenter doesn’t know what is shipped through ports

The Greens today announced a policy to double the amounts of cargo moved by train and shipping. It seems to have forgotten that most cargo moved by ship is bulk cargoes such as cars. Nothing can change the fact that once the ship is unloaded, the cars have to go by truck to the car yard.

image

Source: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. Port study 2 Final report NZIER report to Auckland Council (3 February 2015).

Tax bracket creep in Australia

Bryan Bruce’s boy’s own memories of pre-neoliberal #NewZealand @Child_PovertyNZ

You really are still fighting the 1990 New Zealand general election if Max Rashbrooke makes more sense than you on the good old days before the virus of neoliberalism beset New Zealand from 1984 onwards.

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Source: Mind the Gap: Why most of us are poor | Stuff.co.nz.

Bryan Bruce in the caption looks upon the New Zealand of the 1960s and 70s as “broadly egalitarian”. Even Max Rashbrooke had to admit that was not so if you were Maori or female.

Maybe 65% of the population of those good old days before the virus of neoliberalism. were missing out on that broadly egalitarian society championed by Bryan Bruce.

As is typical for the embittered left, the reactionary left, gender analysis and the sociology of race is not for their memories of their good old days. New Zealand has the smallest gender wage gap of any of the industrialised countries.

The 20 years of wage stagnation that proceeded the passage of the Employment Contracts Act and the wages boom also goes down the reactionary left memory hole.

That wage stagnation in New Zealand  in the 1970s and early 80s coincided with a decline in the incomes of the top 10%. When their income share started growing again, so did the wages of everybody after 20 years of stagnation. The top 10% in New Zealand managed to restore their income share of the early 1970s and indeed the 1960s. That it is hardly the rich getting richer.

@TheAusInstitute has not heard of Ireland’s 12.5% company tax and European tax harmonisation

The Australia Institute has been running the line that cutting the Australian company tax rate just means more tax revenue for offshore tax departments. They will tax the larger after-tax Australian dividends in the home country of the foreign investor if Australia were to cut its company tax rate.

image

Source: David Richardson, Company tax cuts: An Australian gift to the US Internal Revenue Service How a cut to the Australian company tax rate would result in a windfall for the United States Treasury. Australia Institute (May 2015).

The Australia Institute obviously has not picked up on the relentless bullying that Ireland was subject to by the rest of the European Union over its 12.5% company tax.

The Irish company tax rate of 12.5% was initially on export profits. To finesse European Union member state complaints about that 12.5% company tax rate on discrimination grounds, the Irish government extended that low rate to all companies in 1995.

I am yet to see  a minister of finance welcoming a company tax cut in a competing jurisdiction, rubbing his hands in anticipation of greater tax revenues on the foreign profits of companies headquartered in his country.

If there is no race to the bottom in company tax rates, you must wonder why there is substantial efforts within the European Union on tax harmonisation regarding company tax?

France and Germany are pushing plans to introduce a minimum corporation tax rate across the continent, it was reported today, in a move that could result in higher taxes on British companies.

European officials will debate plans to set a EU-wide floor on corporation tax in order to crack down on tax havens such as Ireland and Luxembourg, it emerged.

If there is an ounce of sense in what the Australia Institute said about foreign taxmen benefiting from low company taxes in Australia, high corporate tax rate countries such as Germany, France and the USA should welcome low company tax rates in destination countries for foreign investment originating in those countries but they do not. Rather than seek tax harmonisation, high tax country should welcome low company taxes in competing investment destinations but they do not.

About $2 trillion in profits is held offshore by American businesses because they do not pay company tax in the USA until they actually repatriate the profits to the USA. This is common. You wonder what the purpose of tax havens is if a company tax rate cut in Australia is so easily captured by the IRS?

Studies of the company tax in the USA suggest that a cut in that company tax would lead to large inflows of foreign investment into the USA boosting wages significantly.

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