Dean’s Convocation: Edward Prescott Part 1
27 Oct 2018 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in budget deficits, business cycles, Edward Prescott, fiscal policy, great recession, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Social Security
Instead of contributing to the @NZSuperfund? @TaxpayersUnion
11 May 2017 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in politics - New Zealand, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, social insurance, Social Security
Spending on health or education could have been increased by a quarter or the company tax rate cut by up to 10 percentage points but for the Cullen Fund.
Did the rise of welfare state cause more inequality in wealth?
18 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, public economics Tags: growth of government, income inequality, measurement error, Ricardian theory of budget deficits, Social Security, top 1%, wealth inequality
Markus Poschke and Barış Kaymak have just put out a paper arguing that increased social spending is a major driver of wealth inequality:
Another important and often overlooked third factor is the rise in the generosity of government transfers since 1960, mostly due to the expansion of public pensions (social security) and the introduction of public health insurance for the elderly (Medicare).
Combined spending on these two programs accounted for almost 9% of US GDP in 2010, up from less than 3% in 1960…
These government programmes tend to curb the need to rely on personal savings for retirement, especially among low and middle-income households, and might thus explain why their share in total wealth has declined.
This makes a good to good degree of sense. I have previously argued that using the arguments of Edward Prescott that it is not wise for people on ordinary income to save for their retirement when they can go down to the local Social Security office and claim an old age pension.
51% of nonretirees doubt they will receive Social Security… on.gallup.com/1NcwzEa #GallupDaily http://t.co/ZhKnHYtr1X—
(@GallupNews) August 13, 2015
It is even less wise to save that for retirement if those savings reduce your eligibility for an old age pension. Far better just to invest in a nicer house and pass it on to your children. Poschke and Kaymak note that measures of private wealth inequality miss these claims to old age pensions:
… statistics on wealth inequality that do not capture households’ claims on the public sector are incomplete and overstate top wealth shares.
This is not a new argument. Back when the Ricardian theories of budget deficits came to prominence and before that in debates on theories of the public debt, the more Keynesian sides of those arguments did argue that people were irrational for not including their old age pension entitlements under social security schemes in their calculations of their wealth.
Some of their taxes were paying for their future old age pension and were another form of wealth rather than a tax. As such, taxpayers should regard this part of their taxes as investments and not cutting back their labour supply in response as they do to other taxes.
How much of the rise in wealth inequality is due to this failure to measure Social Security wealth as represented by old age pension entitlements? Their estimate is about 25%:
…technological factors play a dominant role not only for changes in income inequality, as is well known, but also for wealth inequality. As high-earning households save part of their additional income, their share of wealth also rises.
This channel accounts for about half of the total increase in wealth inequality. Tax cuts and the expansion of transfers each account for about half of the remainder…
While tax cuts encourage saving, larger transfers reduce saving incentives for retirement, in particular for low and middle income groups. This implies that these groups’ share of private wealth declines.
Note though that this is partly due to the fact that measures of private wealth inequality, like those compiled by Saez and Zucman, do not include claims to future government transfers, like social security, which constitute wealth for their owners.
@BernieSanders @GrantRobertson1 why does anyone bother to work in #Denmark?
06 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
Taxation of personal income and social security contributions as a percentage of US, British, Danish, German, French and New Zealand GDPs since 1965
18 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economic history, public economics Tags: growth of government, size of government, social insurance, Social Security, Social Security contributions, taxation and labour supply, welfare state
Source: Tax – Social security contributions – OECD Data and Tax – Tax on personal income – OECD Data.
Income tax plus employee contributions less cash benefits as % of earnings by family type in USA, Britain, Canada, Sweden, France, Italy, Denmark, Germany, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Those much admired northern European welfare states tax families and individuals much more than do the Anglo-Saxon welfare states.
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax and social security contributions as a percentage of gross wage earnings in the USA, Britain, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy, France, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
Income tax plus employee and employer social security contributions as % of labour costs in US, Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, Sweden and Denmark
03 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in fiscal policy, public economics Tags: Australia, British economy, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, social insurance, Social Security, Sweden, taxation and labour supply
Source: Taxing Wages 2015 – OECD 2015.
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Social Security contributions as a percentage of GDP in the G7 countries
03 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in economic history, public economics Tags: British economy, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, social insurance, Social Security, taxation and labour supply
Source: Revenue Statistics 2015 – OECD 2015.
Social Security income replacement rates across the OECD
13 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in labour economics, labour supply, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, poverty and inequality Tags: income insurance, poverty traps, social insurance, Social Security, welfare state
Poverty traps in America
17 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage, politics - USA, poverty and inequality Tags: offsetting behaviour, poverty traps, social insurance, Social Security, taxation and labour supply, The fatal conceit, unintended consequences, welfare state
James Bartholomew introduces his new book, ‘The Welfare of Nations’.
31 Jul 2015 1 Comment
by Jim Rose in labour economics, labour supply, poverty and inequality, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: James Bartholomew, poverty traps, social insurance, Social Security, taxation and the labour supply, welfare reform, welfare state
And here is my own video introduction to the new book. Welfare states have caused more unhappiness than inequality. https://t.co/mUWrGyVWfw
— James Bartholomew (@JGBartholomew) March 28, 2015
And here is my own video introduction to the new book. Welfare states have caused more unhappiness than inequality. https://t.co/mUWrGyVWfw
— James Bartholomew (@JGBartholomew) March 28, 2015
Average effective retirement age by gender in the PIGS, 1970 – 2012
27 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in currency unions, economic history, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply Tags: ageing society, demographics crisis, economics of retirement, female labour force participation, Greece, Italy, male labour force participation, old age pensions, older workers, Portugal, social insurance, Social Security, Spain, taxation and labour supply
Figure 1 shows a relatively distinct pattern for men in the PIGs. Portugal aside, there has been a long decline retirement ages. This is different to the Anglo-Saxon countries where effective retirement ages have been increasing in recent years for men.
Figure 1: average effective retirement age (5-year averages), men, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, 1970 – 2012
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Figure 2 shows that apart from Greece, that after a long decline in female effective retirement ages, there was something the rebound, especially in Italy and Portugal. In Greece, the rebound was in the 80s, followed by a resumption of decline from the mid 90s.
Figure 2: average effective retirement age (5-year averages), women, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, 1970 – 2012
Source: OECD Pensions at a Glance.
Poverty traps: would a minimum wage increase take-home pay?
27 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
by Jim Rose in labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, public economics, welfare reform Tags: earned income tax credit, family tax credits, in-work tax credits, poverty traps, social insurance, Social Security, taxation and labour supply
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