Research: The Moynihan report revisited http://t.co/Qirzy6gFmo pic.twitter.com/xUY9KqzWv0
— Urban Institute (@urbaninstitute) September 15, 2015
The Moynihan Report revisited
22 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, labour economics, politics - USA Tags: economics of families, marriage and divorce, Moynihan report, single mothers, single parents
The decline of the Republican Party in California
22 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, California, voted demographics
California: the Republican party's lost state econ.st/1KfIJK0 http://t.co/vkdO87BfPE—
The Economist (@ECONdailycharts) September 17, 2015
728 shot by police by race, 2015 @thecounted @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry
21 Sep 2015 1 Comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, police, police shootings
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard time.
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard time.
The dangerous left-wing bias of economists strikes again
21 Sep 2015 2 Comments
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economics of regulation, history of economic thought, occupational choice, politics - USA
The left-wing bias of economists must be taken into account in public policy-making. Any suggestions to regulate the economy, spend our way out of a recession, increase the top tax rate and so on must be discounted for that well-known but little publicised political bias.

Source: Economists Aren’t As Nonpartisan As We Think | FiveThirtyEight
As is not well-known enough, Cardiff and Klein (2005) used voter registration data to rank disciplines at Californian Ivy League universities by Democrat to Republican ratios. Economics is the most conservative social science, with a Democrat to Republican ratio of a mere 2.8 to 1. This can be contrasted with sociology (44 to 1), political science (6.5 to 1) and anthropology (10.5 to 1). 40% of Americans are Democrats, 32% are independents with the balance Republicans.

Zubin Jelveh, Bruce Kogut, and Suresh Naidu confirmed that bias: that the typical economist is a moderate Democrat. They found a 60–40 liberal conservative bias
Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu also reminded, as many have before them that economics is the most politically diverse of academic professions. Sociology is a notorious left-wing echo chamber as an example. Their most likely view of Jeremy Corbyn is he is a bit of a Tory. Oddly enough, sociologists are the first to point the finger at economists for political bias.

Jelveh, Kogut, and Naidu correlated political donations of more than $200 in the Federal Elections Commission database with the language used in 18,000 journal articles back to the 1970s.

More interestingly, they correlated political bias with the estimates of quantitative effects such as the top tax rate and its impact on labour supply and investment:
We found a (significant) correlation when we compared the ideologies of authors with the numerical results in their papers. That means that a left-leaning economist is more likely to report numerical results aligned with liberal ideology (and the same is true for right-leaning economists and conservative ideology)… liberals think the fiscal multiplier is high, meaning the government can improve economic growth by increasing spending, while conservatives believe the multiplier is close to zero or negative.
They are not suggesting a rigging of the results. Economists tend to sort into the fields that suit their ideologies:
It’s more likely that these correlations are driven by research areas and the methodologies employed by economists of differing political stripe. Economics involves both methodological and normative judgments, and it is difficult to imagine that any social science could completely erase correlations between these two… macroeconomists and financial economists are more right-leaning on average while labour economists tend to be left-leaning. Economists at business schools, no matter their specialty, lean conservative. Apparently, there is “political sorting” in the academic labour market.
Before you start writing out the indictment that economic policy and the global financial crisis is the product of a vast left-wing conspiracy within the economics profession you should remember the wise words of George Stigler.
Stigler argued that ideas about economic reform needed to wait for a market. He contended that economists exert a minor and scarcely detectable independent influence on the societies in which they live. As is well known, Stigler in the 1970s toasted Milton Friedman at a dinner in his honour by saying:
Milton, if you hadn’t been born, it wouldn’t have made any difference.
Stigler said that if Richard Cobden had spoken only Yiddish, and with a stammer, and Robert Peel had been a narrow, stupid man, England would have still have repealed the Corn Laws in the 1840s. England would still have moved towards free trade in grain as its agricultural classes declined and its manufacturing and commercial classes grew in the 1840s onwards because of the industrial revolution.

As Stigler noted, when their day comes, economists seem to be the leaders of public opinion. But when the views of economists are not so congenial to the current requirements of special interest groups, these economists are left to be the writers of letters to the editor in provincial newspapers. These days, they would run an angry blog.
The 43 Taser deaths by race in 2015 @thecounted @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry
21 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, police, tasers
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1:30 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1:30 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.
A history of US growth per capita
21 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic growth, economic history, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: prosperity and depression
Time to replace eagle with unicorn? The US as a high growth startup. @JimPethokoukis goo.gl/D4MK9x http://t.co/6WRB7nvUTp—
AEIdeas Blog (@AEIdeas) September 03, 2015
@thecounted How did the 24 unarmed Hispanics/Latinos killed by police in 2015 die @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry
20 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order, police, police shootings
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1 p.m. 20 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.
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Economic impact of global warming: new evidence
18 Sep 2015 1 Comment
in applied welfare economics, development economics, environmental economics, global warming, growth disasters, growth miracles, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: climate alarmism, global warming, Richard Tol
A nice summary of the latest research showing that once again the welfare cost of climate change is small except under the most extreme scenarios.
2% of national income is not something to declare a national emergency over unless you are in a very poor country.
Richard Tol also mentions that there has only been 27 studies of the economic costs of climate change:
Twenty-seven estimates is a thin basis for any conclusion. Researchers disagree on the sign of the net impact; climate change may lead to a welfare gain or loss. At the same time, researchers agree on the order of magnitude. The welfare change caused by climate change is equivalent to the welfare change caused by an income change of a few percent.
- That is, a century of climate change is about as good/bad for welfare as a year of economic growth.
As Tol wrote elsewhere, the reason why there are so few studies of the welfare cost of global warming is governments and bureaucracies do not like the small numbers they yield so they pre-emptively do not fund such research.
Few economists work full-time on the economics of climate change as their research results are too moderate to win repeat business and further research grants. Importantly, there is vicious criticism of what you say. Much better to just work on other topics.
One of the great tactical victories of the climate activists, I resisted the temptation to call them climate alarmists, is they keep going on about the science is settled and whether you are accepting the scientific results.
I have long argued let the science be settled, only the economics matters. The climate change activists do not want to talk about the economics that much except for the estimates by that political hack Lord Stern. Lord Stern has been on the losing side of history ever since he wrote a bad review of PT Bauer’s Dissent on Development where he said:
Dissent on Development is not a valuable contribution to the study of development.
The Stern Review puts the costs of unmitigated climate change at 5–20% of GDP (now and forever). The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds differently.
HT: Lorenzo M Warby
Race and health outcomes in the USA
18 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in health economics, politics - USA Tags: cancer rates, life expectancies
.@Bagault: Large racial differences on women's health status – especially for black women #StatusOfWomen2015 http://t.co/LcmnTIA1Rv—
IWPR (@IWPResearch) May 20, 2015
@thecounted People killed by American police by race (%), 2015 @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry
18 Sep 2015 1 Comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order, police, police shootings
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian Accessed 12.50 a.m. New Zealand standard time, 18th September 2015.
Roland Fryer On Why Good Schools Matter @greencatherine @dbseymour @ThomasHaig @PPTAWeb
17 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of education, human capital, managerial economics, organisational economics, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: economics of early childhood education, economics of personality traits, economics of schools, racial discrimination, Roland Fryer
Roland Fryer believes “high-quality education is the new civil rights battleground”. He is an extraordinary man who was carrying a gun and selling drugs at 14 and an assistant professor of economics at Harvard at the age of 27. He is fearless as a researcher.

Source: Roland Fryer On Why Good Schools Matter – Forbes
Roland Fryer is the first Afro-American to win the John Bates Clark Medal econ.st/1FrmzDL http://t.co/QoAZWyRVEX—
Charles Read (@EconCharlesRead) April 27, 2015
The winner’s curse in presidential primaries
17 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election
#NewYorkCity used to have a lot of murders
17 Sep 2015 2 Comments
in economic history, economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, crime rates, criminal deterrence, law and order, New York City
I went looking for the uptick in murders in U.S. cities. Here’s what I found. wapo.st/1QdNA0m http://t.co/w2dc8rnoFu—
Max Ehrenfreund (@MaxEhrenfreund) September 04, 2015
@thecounted How did the 62 unarmed Blacks killed by police in 2015 die @radleybalko @Mark_J_Perry
17 Sep 2015 2 Comments
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, police, police shootings, road accidents, road safety
I followed the coding by the Guardian despite reservations. Including those struck by police cars in routine accidents, none of them police chases, conflates one database with another and does not touch on the issue of the wisdom of police car chases. Including people who drive cars at police or flee with kidnapped children in a car is stretching the definition of unarmed. The wisdom of shooting at a car with children in it is a separate issue. The safety of the hostage taker is not a responsibility of the police, the safety of the children kidnapped in that car was.
Source: The Counted: people killed by police in the United States in 2015 – interactive | US news | The Guardian accessed 1 p.m. 16 September 2015 New Zealand standard Time.
About 10% of police shootings of unarmed people resulted in murder charges and a few of those still under investigation read as suspicious and may result in charges as well as more evidence is gathered.
Our count as of this afternoon is 823. Have a tip? Tweet us at @thecounted or visit theguardian.com/thecounted/tips http://t.co/96AM7pNPGH—
The Counted (@thecounted) September 14, 2015
That 10% figure of police shootings that result in murder charges is much higher if you exclude people who collapsed while in contact with police from underlying poor health either in a struggle or after being tasered – 20 or more out of 62, drove cars at police (3), killed in crossfire (2) or were killed in police car accidents (5). The figure is even higher when you exclude a good number of those who are struggling with police and the police fired in self defence lawfully. That is, if a police officer shoot someone at a safe distance without good cause, they face a high probability of being charged with murder.
The database I used today for the above figure on shooting of unarmed Blacks takes less than an hour to work your way through to code them for yourself, so if you doubt my coding, do your own coding and put up a rival figure. I will even consider a guest blog by you if you lack a forum.
Update: When I shared this post on the dataisbeautiful sub-reddit, the first comment on that post was to denounce me as a racist for sharing.
The Great Escape for 10-year-old Americans
16 Sep 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, health economics, politics - USA Tags: clean drinking water, health and sanitation, life expectancies, public health, The Great Escape, The Great Fact, vaccines
The Health Transition in the US + public health and medical milestones.
New paper: bit.ly/1F1OxYi http://t.co/8IW8EjCkwQ—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) September 12, 2015

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