The Greens quadrupled their party vote in the seven Māori seats, as Maori voters did what TPM asked them to do, and did not give TPM their party votes. This gave the Greens an additional 2.1% of the total vote. Without it they would have got 11.2% in the election instead of 13.3%. This means…
TPM’s overhang campaign gave the Greens two extra List MPs
TPM’s overhang campaign gave the Greens two extra List MPs
12 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
How unexpected is the New Zealand 2026 result?
12 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
The preliminary result in New Zealand is surprising, perhaps even shocking, in some respects. These results show a record 11 overhang seats, each of which means a seat added to parliament such that the size will be 131 seats rather than the baseline 120. An overhang happens when a party wins a nominal-tier seat (“electorate” […]
How unexpected is the New Zealand 2026 result?
NZ election winners, losers and what matters
11 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: 2026 general election
I know results are provisional, but there is reason to give a verdict on the performance of the seven parties who are entering Parliament, and what next. One thing is sure, I don’t think the public will be the winner over the next three years, but I also don’t think it will see any serious…
NZ election winners, losers and what matters
Two overhangs, but for different reasons
09 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
Te Pāti Māori announced in August that they did not want party votes. They explicitly said they want to create overhang. Their MPs did not even party vote for TPM. And their strategy worked. In 2023 they got 3.1%. In 2026 they got 0.6%. That is an 80% reduction in their party vote, or a…
Two overhangs, but for different reasons
Final bribeometer update
06 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
The bean counters at the Taxpayers’ Union have done a final update on the extra spending that each party is promising. So there are two fiscally responsible parties, two fiscally irresponsible parties and three fiscally insane parties. Vote wisely if you don’t want your kids paying off a generation of debt. The post Final bribeometer…
Final bribeometer update
So about that party vote?
05 Nov 2026 1 Comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
When looking at party vote, most people think of left/right “blocs” which in my view is leaving aside certain nuances. For a start, anyone who thinks NZ First is securely in the “right” bloc doesn’t know history, as NZ First has gone into coalition with Labour as many times as National. Secondly, the differences between…
So about that party vote?
Douglas vs Seymour
04 Nov 2026 Leave a comment
in economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2026 general election
Roger Douglas released: Muldoon Is Back — Only the Names Have Changed: ACT’s proposed KiwiSaver tax exemption risks repeating the mistakes of New Zealand’s protected economic past ACT’s proposal to make KiwiSaver investment earnings tax-free raises an important question: is this good economic policy, or is it an attempt to win votes by offering another…
Douglas vs Seymour
The Left and the Mob
28 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
Chris Trotter writes – By allowing themselves to be recorded alongside the Mongrel Mob, Te Pāti Māori, Green, and Labour MPs may have cost the Left the election. Harry Tam is one of those rare individuals with the ability to bring outsiders inside. As a working proposition, promoting the interests of the Mongrel Mob would […]
The Left and the Mob
Not A Right to Silence Issue
20 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, 2026 general election
How Politicians Misunderstand Highly Nuanced Legal Concepts David Harvey writes – The National Party announced a policy that proposes to remove the right to silence that can be invoked by adults who may (or may not) have information surrounding the cause of death of a child under 12. The term “right to silence” has a […]
Not A Right to Silence Issue
Gangs are organised crime, not a community group
16 Oct 2026 1 Comment
in economics of crime, law and economics, Marxist economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
The Herald reports: Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick won’t say if she would have advised her MP Hūhana Lyndon against meeting with members of the Mongrel Mob. After being asked the question twice, Swarbrick said she needed to “understand more of the context as to what has played out here”, although she earlier said having…
Gangs are organised crime, not a community group
More on the Herald so called poll of polls
14 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
On the 2nd of October I wrote: So the last six polls, all from different firms, have had ACT ahead of Opportunity by margins ranging from 1% to 6%, and the Herald-MOTU poll of polls says that the poll of polls means Opportunity is ahead of ACT. On the 8th of October the Herald did…
More on the Herald so called poll of polls
Why Mowbray donates
07 Oct 2026 1 Comment
in development economics, entrepreneurship, growth miracles, politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election, China
Nick Mowbray writes: I’m aware of the criticism we receive for donating to National and ACT. I’m also aware of the false narrative that we lobby the government and expect something in return. So let me be clear: we have never lobbied the government. Less than 1% of ZURU’s revenue is in New Zealand. We…
Why Mowbray donates
Welfare missing from 2026 election
07 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in labour economics, labour supply, liberalism, Marxist economics, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, welfare reform Tags: 2026 general election
Lindsay Mitchell writes – Welfare is markedly missing from 2026 election campaign issues.There’s been far more debate about Super: its cost, means-testing and the age of eligibility. New Zealand is an outlier. Australia, the UK and the US have a qualifying age of 67. Whether NZ joins must be decided. Super isn’t sustainable. But what […]
Welfare missing from 2026 election
Labour is reneging on its pay equity promise
07 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in discrimination, gender, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking, unions Tags: 2026 general election, gender wage gap
Bryce Edwards writes – Chris Hipkins has described the coalition’s decision to cancel pay equity claims under urgency as “probably the most reprehensible thing I have seen in my time as a member of Parliament”. He accused ministers of “robbing Paula to pay Paul” and of “sacrificing equal pay for women in order to balance […]
Labour is reneging on its pay equity promise
What I’d do
05 Oct 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand Tags: 2026 general election
A couple of weeks ago the Sunday Star-Times published a piece by me (that they’d requested) trying to explain productivity and why it mattered. The mandate for that piece included avoiding controversy (around, notably, specific ideas for reversing New Zealand’s decades-long productivity underperformance). As a follow-up to that, the editor invited me to participate in […]
What I’d do
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