Is Canada diverging from Australia in labour productivity to become like New Zealand?

Figure 1 shows that Canada has been diverging from Australia in real GDP per working age person since the mid-1990s particularly since the global financial crisis.

Figure 1: Real GDP per New Zealander, Canadian and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

In common with New Zealand, Figure 2 shows that Canadian productivity has been in a pretty much along declines is about 1974, rarely catching up with any lost ground. Figure 1 shows that Canada used to be richer than Australia but is now poorer than Australia. Figure 2 is real GDP growth data detrended by the growth rate of the USA in the 20th century. A flat line in figure 2 is annual real GDP growth at 1.9%; a rising line is growth above 1.9%; a falling line is annual growth below 1.9% a year.

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander, Canadian and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, 1956-2013

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Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2 shows that Canadian productivity has been below trend for perhaps 30 years. There has been the  occasional recovery but followed by a further decline. If Canadian labour productivity had grown at the same rate as the USA since 1974, labour productivity in Canada is something like 18% better.

Australia, as shown in figure 2, has neither caught up nor falling behind the USA in labour productivity for the entire post-war period since 1956. Canada has been falling behind its neighbour most markedly since the mid-1970s.

  • Canada fell 10 percentage points further behind the USA in relative labour productivity between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s.
  • Canada stopped falling further behind the USA after 1995 to 2005 but, in common with New Zealand, Canadian labour productivity did not rebound to recover the prior lost ground.

The proximate causes of the Canadian productivity gap with the USA have a familiar echo to New Zealand ears. Relative to the USA, Rao et al. (2006) and Sharp (2003) attributed the gap to less capital per worker, an innovation gap as shown by lower R&D expenditure, a smaller and less dynamic high technology sector, less developed human capital at the top end of the labour market, and more limited scale and scope economies.

These factors have been put forward, at one time or another, as the proximate causes of the New Zealand productivity gap with the USA. Identifying the barriers to higher Canadian productivity may offer fresh insights into removing similar productivity barriers in New Zealand.

Canada, New Zealand and Australia should be catching-up with the USA in productivity per capita because copying the global leader is cheaper than innovation. Canada, New Zealand and Australia all have the basics to do this: a market economy, the rule of law and openness to foreign technology and international trade.

Instead of asking why New Zealand is not catching-up with Australian productivity, further study of the lack of productivity catch-up of Australia and Canada with the USA may uncover subtle barriers to productivity growth with similarities in New Zealand.

The productivity decline in Canada is of interest in New Zealand because Canada certainly cannot blame remoteness because it borders the USA. Canada cannot blame lack of size because it is noticeably larger than Australia and certainly New Zealand.

Argentina used to be as rich as Australia and New Zealand

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Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP for the European offshoots (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand), 1965–2013

The tax take is noticeably higher in Canada and New Zealand and has been for a long time.

Figure 1: US, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand tax revenues as a percentage of GDP, 1965–2013

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Source: OECD StatExtract.

The school year is slightly above average length in New Zealand and Australia

Long-term unemployment by sex, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and USA, 1968 – 2013

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Source: OECD StatExtract

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Trade union density, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and USA, 1960–2012

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Minimum wage relative to average wage of full-time worker, UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, 1960–2012

Figure 1: minimum wage relative to median wage in full-time worker, UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, 1960 – 2012

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Figure 2: minimum wage relative to mean wage in full-time worker, UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, 1960 – 2012

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Working age populations of Australia, New Zealand and Japan

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HT: OECD

When did Down Under overtake the Mother Country? Real GDP Britain, Australia and New Zealand 1820–2010

Pretty quickly according to figure 1. Britain, Australia and New Zealand quickly had similar standards of living in the middle of the 19th century until about 1880. Australia was richer for about 20 years until the great Federation drought took the wind out of its sails.

Figure 1:  British, Australian and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

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Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

New Zealand then broke away at the end of the Second World War from both Australia and UK. In the mid-1960s circumstances changed with Australia drifting ahead of the UK and New Zealand drifting away to a lower standard of living.

Figure 2:  British and Australian GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

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Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 2 shows that from about 1960 until 1990 Australia was richer than the UK. After that, the growth dividend of Thatchernomics allowed the British to catch up again to the Australians.

Figure 3:  British and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

image

Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 3 shows that New Zealand was richer than the UK in the mid-20th century. The lost decades in New Zealand from 1974 to 1992 let the sick man of Europe overtake New Zealand before Thatchernomics caused a growth spurt in the UK to take the British well ahead.

Figure 4: Australian and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

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Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 4 shows that New Zealand was richer than Australian in the first part of the post-war period. The divergence started with the onset of the lost decades in New Zealand in the early 1970s.

Is the Mother Country catching up with Down Under? Real GDP per working age New Zealander, British and Australian, detrended, 1956 –2013

Figure 1: Real GDP per New Zealander, British and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1956-2013

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Figure 2: Real GDP per New Zealander, British and Australian aged 15-64, converted to 2013 price level with updated 2005 EKS purchasing power parities, 1.9 per cent detrended, 1956-2013

image

Source: Computed from OECD Stat Extract and The Conference Board, Total Database, January 2014, http://www.conference-board.org/economics

Sydney Cove as a storm looms

https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteorology/photos/a.171427712921137.44816.170992086298033/909995679064333/?type=1

via Nick Toonen

Australian and New Zealand inflation rates adjusted for new goods and quality bias of 1.5%

In praise of measurement error: good thing no one noticed the severe deflation in Australia and in New Zealand in the late 1990s for otherwise the do-gooders might have felt the need to do something about it. Good thing no one is panicking over the recent mild deflation in New Zealand as well.

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Source: OECD StatExtract

Down and out in Australia ain’t what it used to be

Male? Want to Live to 100? Head Down Under – Bloomberg Business

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/male-want-to-live-to-100-head-down-under

Richard Cobden didn’t think much of Australia

The idea of defending, as integral parts of our Empire, countries 10,000 miles off, like Australia, which neither pay a shilling to our revenue...nor afford us any exclusive trade...is about as quixotic a specimen of national folly as was ever exhibited.  - Richard Cobden

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