Can NZ double migrant investors and entrepreneurs from $3.5 billion to $7 billion at no cost to taxpayers!?

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https://youtu.be/CXm4zciEFfU

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I didn’t notice any discussion in the Cabinet paper of a government doing this before and whether their investment promotion efforts succeeded or not. This latest policy proposal cannot even count as evidence-based policy dreaming, much less a serious contribution to public policy.

Hoping to double incoming foreign investor and entrepreneur migration from $3.5 billion to $7 billion inside three years without spending any extra public money is breathless public policy making. I am sure lots of governments previously tried to get something for nothing.

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It will be helpful if ministers pointed to where overseas governments have been successful in doubling foreign investment by simply reprioritising existing investment promotion efforts. 

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There are at least 2,500 national, provincial and city investment promotion agencies out. Some of them must have been subject to some sort of evaluation as to their success.

This overseas literature review would be in addition to the recent findings of the Ministry of Economic Development about the poor performance  and perhaps futility of the foreign direct investment promotion by New Zealand Trade and Enterprise.

Imagine how much bigger a boost in foreign investor and entrepreneur migration lays before us if actual real new money was put on the table.

via beehive.govt.nz – Strategy targets international investors and Evaluation of NZTE investment support activities [929 KB PDF]

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Edmund Phelps on smart industry policies

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A tale of two cities – Hong Kong’s and Singapore’s different paths to prosperity

Hong Kong and Singapore had different paths to prosperity. Alywn Young found that Hong Kong had made real productivity gains, but Singapore grew by a massive dose of savings and investment, including foreign investment.

For most of the post-war era, the Hong Kong government adopted a policy of minimal intervention. the government of Singapore has pursued maximalist policies involving widespread state participation in economic activity and aggressive industry targeting policies.

The share of investment in Singapore’s GDP rose from 9% in 1960 to 43% in 1984, while Hong Kong’s remained steady at about 20%. Productivity growth in the aggregate non-agricultural economy was a miserable -0.3% in Singapore and 2.3% in Hong Kong.

What does this mean in practical terms? Real consumption, real consumer spending, per capita in Hong Kong is 20%  or more higher than in Singapore!

Hong Kong actually enjoyed their prosperity. Robert Barro explains this in a comment on Young’s paper:

In 1985, when Singapore’s per capita real GDP was 102% of Hong Kong’s, the consumption was only 70% of Hong Kong’s. To put it another way, Hong Kong’s per capita real consumption grew by 5.9% per year from 1960 to 1985, about the same as for GDP, whereas Singapore’s grew by only 2.8% per year, much less than GDP.

In terms of output per capita and output per worker, the growth of Hong Kong and Singapore are equally impressive. Hong Kong does much better in terms of  productivity growth.

Hong Kong did not require as rapid capital accumulation as Singapore. Since capital accumulation is financed either by domestic saving or foreign saving, people in Hong Kong can afford to save less or borrow less from foreign economies. Saving less now means more consumption now.

In the case of Hong Kong, their living standards are far superior to Singapore’s. The government of Singapore wasted a good 20 to 30% of national income on industry targeting and compulsory savings.

Hong Kong experienced rapid total productivity growth, while Singapore  experienced no improvement whatsoever in total productivity during its East Asian Tiger years. Young (1992, 1994, 1995) demonstrated that from 1967 onward total factor productivity growth in Singapore was next to nil, and for significant parts of the period most likely negative. Only productivity allows a nation to support and enjoy high wages.

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