Did the rise of welfare state cause more inequality in wealth?

 Markus Poschke and Barış Kaymak have just put out a paper arguing that increased social spending is a major driver of wealth inequality:

Another important and often overlooked third factor is the rise in the generosity of government transfers since 1960, mostly due to the expansion of public pensions (social security) and the introduction of public health insurance for the elderly (Medicare).

Combined spending on these two programs accounted for almost 9% of US GDP in 2010, up from less than 3% in 1960…

These government programmes tend to curb the need to rely on personal savings for retirement, especially among low and middle-income households, and might thus explain why their share in total wealth has declined.

This makes a good to good degree of sense. I have previously argued that using the arguments of Edward Prescott that it is not wise for people on ordinary income to save for their retirement when they can go down to the local Social Security office and claim an old age pension.

It is even less wise to save that for retirement if those savings reduce your eligibility for an old age pension. Far better just to invest in a nicer house and pass it on to your children. Poschke and Kaymak note that measures of private wealth inequality miss these claims to old age pensions:

… statistics on wealth inequality that do not capture households’ claims on the public sector are incomplete and overstate top wealth shares.

This is not a new argument. Back when the Ricardian theories of budget deficits came to prominence and before that in debates on theories of the public debt, the more Keynesian sides of those arguments did argue that people were irrational for not including their old age pension entitlements under social security schemes in their calculations of their wealth.

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Some of their taxes were paying for their future old age pension and were another form of wealth rather than a tax. As such, taxpayers should regard this part of their taxes as investments and not cutting back their labour supply in response as they do to other taxes.

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Source: Barış Kaymak and Markus Poschke The evolution of wealth inequality over half a century: The role of taxes, transfers and technology, Journal of Monetary Economics (2016).

How much of the rise in wealth inequality is due to this failure to measure Social Security wealth as represented by old age pension entitlements? Their estimate is about 25%:

…technological factors play a dominant role not only for changes in income inequality, as is well known, but also for wealth inequality. As high-earning households save part of their additional income, their share of wealth also rises.

This channel accounts for about half of the total increase in wealth inequality. Tax cuts and the expansion of transfers each account for about half of the remainder…

While tax cuts encourage saving, larger transfers reduce saving incentives for retirement, in particular for low and middle income groups. This implies that these groups’ share of private wealth declines.

Note though that this is partly due to the fact that measures of private wealth inequality, like those compiled by Saez and Zucman, do not include claims to future government transfers, like social security, which constitute wealth for their owners.

The voter as a fiscal conservative

Now that every election policy must be fully costed, and every major party promises a return to surplus in a few years, the Ricardian theory of budget deficits is now an optimistic view of the power of fiscal policy.

By running a budget deficit, it shifts from collecting taxes today to collecting them tomorrow and fund the intervening shortfall was selling government bonds to the private sector. A finance minister may choose to lower taxes today (thereby increasing the deficit), but without any planned changes in the government’s expenditure program, such a policy must imply higher taxes at some point in the future.

The Ricardian theory of budget deficits is people are smart enough to recognise that today’s fiscal deficits mean tomorrow’s taxes must increase to to repay the debt so taxpayers cut back consumption dollar for dollar to save for those future taxes.

If you know your taxes will go up in the future, the right thing to do is save to  pay those higher taxes. A fiscal stimulus is then completely offset by the reduction in private consumption. The stimulus has no effect on spending, prices, production, or interest rates  because households know that deficit spending means future taxes: to smooth consumption, they save more now.

To make things worse, the lower taxes today and the higher taxes tomorrow encourage intertemporal substitution of labour. People will work more now because taxes  are low but work less in the future when taxes are high. Investors also take into account that taxes on their investment income will be higher in the future so they will invest less now.

Notice below the mirror trends of net private and government savings as a per cent of U.S. GDP. Financing U.S. government consumption through deficits or through taxation is equivalent:  households know net present value of taxation will rise and save to offset that.

HT: correctionspageone.blogspot

If you think a fiscal stimulus works by fooling people into ignoring the future tax hikes or spending cuts, then loudly announcing in an election campaign those  tax hikes and spending cuts in a few year’s time that will pay for the current fiscal stimulus must undermine that stimulus even more!

When Robert Barro wrote in the 1970s and 1980s, he pointed out that there is no reason to assume that forecasting errors about future taxes are always biased in the direction of under-estimating the future taxes. People can over-estimate the future taxes. Individual uncertainty about their future tax liabilities does not normally induce them to save less, it induces them to save more.

The fact that much political debate surrounds government budget deficits clearly suggests that the voters understand the government budget constraint  and that  high budget deficits today signal higher taxes in the future and they change their behaviour accordingly.

Robert Barro likes to refer to Israel as a natural experiment in the Ricardian budget deficit theory. In 1983, the national saving rate of 13% of GDP corresponded to a private saving rate of 17% and a public saving rate of -4%.  In 1984, the dramatic rise in the budget deficit reduced the public saving rate to -11%.  Private saving rate rose to 26%, so that the national saving rate changed little.  Then a stabilisation program in 1985 eliminated the budget deficit, so that the public saving rate rose to 0% in 1985-86 and -2% in 1987.  The private saving rate declined dramatically to 19% in 1985 and 14% in 1986-87.  The national saving rate remained relatively stable, going from 15% in 1984 to 18% in 1985, 14% in 1986, and 12% in 1987.

The best evidence that people do take future taxes into account is the method in which old age pensions are financed in different countries.  An expansion of social security pensions for the retired is analogous to a deficit-financed tax cut. People respond to more social security by shifting private intergenerational transfers, rather than by consuming more.

In the US, the growth of social security strongly diminished the tendency of children to support their aged parents because they are paying taxes now and in the future to support them.  In countries were weak social security,  children spend more  of their money looking after their parents.

It is certainly the case that most younger people think they have to provide for their own retirement and that government will not tax enough to support them in 20 to 30 years time.

People have relatively sophisticated views of both long-run  government spending and taxing in an ageing society and that deficits must be paid for. The voter is a fiscal conservative.

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