Equally, a reminder that winning 51% of Labour members not the same as winning Britain: https://t.co/rxFqhyucst pic.twitter.com/Ry2pHu5oyE
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) August 27, 2015
Inside the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters
27 Aug 2015 1 Comment
in economics of media and culture, Public Choice Tags: British politics, voter demographics
@GreenpeaceNZ @NZGreens environmentalism is not face of the future
24 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economic history, environmental economics, global warming, Public Choice Tags: air pollution, climate alarmism, global warming, The Great Escape, voter demographics, water pollution
Bryan Caplan on why H.L. Mencken was right
22 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economics of information, Public Choice Tags: Bryan Caplan, H.L Mencken, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, voter demographics
What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling?
22 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, expressive voting, opinion polling, rational ignorance, rational rationality, voter demographics
The 2012 race was even crazier. GOP voters flirted seriously with nearly every other candidate before finally settling on Romney.
via What Can We Learn From National Primary Polling? Virtually Nothing. – Reason.com.
Why Is The NRA So Powerful
19 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, constitutional political economy, economics of regulation, Public Choice Tags: competition for political influence, gun control, lobby groups, median voter theorem, rational ignorance, special interests, voter demographics
What does U.S. gun ownership really look like? Load up with #PollPosition’s @Johnnydontlike: bit.ly/1y2EMjX http://t.co/fn5EpM75U7—
(@PJTV) March 25, 2015
Do immigrants bring their politics with them?
17 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: economics of immigration, voter demographics
Based on this paper by @CatoInstitute's @AlexNowrasteh, immigrants barely differ politically object.cato.org/sites/cato.org… http://t.co/suwazCEcrU—
David Bier (@myfreesociety) February 24, 2015
The climate alarmists need to lift their game on their scaremongering
11 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in economics of media and culture, environmental economics, global warming, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: climate alarmism, doomsday prophecies, global warming, scaremongering, voter demographics
Some basics about opinion polls and polling results
03 Aug 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, Public Choice Tags: data mining, media bias, opinion polls, sampling errors, statistics, voter demographics
Common mistakes in polling and poll results, from PhD Comics…. phdcomics.com/comics.php http://t.co/JIvuPqFVRs—
(@SocImages) August 02, 2015
British voting patterns by religion
25 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, Public Choice Tags: 2015 British election, British politics, voter demographics
Ben Clements of @BritRelNumbers on voting behaviour by religion in #GE2015 using BES data
brin.ac.uk/news/2015/reli… http://t.co/NKVlt3xarY—
BritishElectionStudy (@BESResearch) July 23, 2015
Murray Rothbard on the falling popularity of Pope Francis
25 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of education, economics of regulation, economics of religion, energy economics, environmental economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economics, Murray Rothbard, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, Catholic social thought, climate alarmism, expressive voting, global warming, makework bias, Pope Francis, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, voter demographics
Only one poll number says anything meaningful about 2016
11 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in constitutional political economy, economic history, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: 2016 presidential election, voter demographics
Right now, only one poll number says anything meaningful about 2016. My @monkeycageblog post: washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-c… http://t.co/BJ7ixc5m0W—
Patrick J. Egan (@Patrick_J_Egan) July 10, 2015
Environmentalists have been losing the battle for public opinion for some time
11 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, politics - USA, Public Choice, technological progress Tags: air pollution, climate alarmism, conservation, voter demographics, water pollution
A lot of voters want to protect themselves from the scourge of lower prices
09 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in industrial organisation, international economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: antiforeign bias, antimarket bias, expressive voting, free trade, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, voter demographics
Who favors free trade?
(The affluent.)
nytimes.com/2015/05/28/ups… @BrendanNyhan http://t.co/kojmUWUtH0—
Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 27, 2015
Vote splitting for the Conservative Party and New Zealand First
08 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: 2014 New Zealand election, Conservative Party, National Party, New Zealand First, New Zealand Labour Party, split voting, ticket splitting, voter demographics
At the 2014 General Election 31.64% of all voters split their vote compared to 30.70% in 2011. Slightly over 80% of Labour Party and National Party voters give both their party vote and electorate vote to the same party.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
New Zealand First vote splitting data above suggests more Labour voters vote New Zealand First than National Party voters by a noticeable margin. 1/3rd of voters who gave their party vote to New Zealand First voted Labour with their electorate vote. This compares to one in five New Zealand First voters who gave their electorate vote to the National Party.
Source: The Electoral Commission.
It’s a different story with the Conservative Party. A good 40% of Conservative Party voters give their electorate vote to National. This compares to a 10% split to the Labour Party.
The National Party has much to gain from the collapse of the Conservative Party as does fellow populist party New Zealand First. This split vote analysis does not throw much insight into how New Zealand First would benefit from a collapse in the Conservative Party.
If New Zealand First picks up a significant amount of the current party vote for the Conservative Party if the latter was to fold, New Zealand First will pick up one or two list seats in the next general election giving it the balance of power.
The only thing that could be said is the lack of Labour voters among Conservative Party voters suggest they are reluctant to support New Zealand First because in the past it has supported Labour Governments. The Conservative Party effectively promised to support a National Party Government.
A vote for the Conservative Party is a vote for a National Party government. A vote for New Zealand First is much more likely to see a Labour Government. That suggests to me that many Conservative Party voters are National Party voters at heart.
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
Recent Comments