He who dies with the most hoarded cash does not, in fact, win.
President Trump Stubbornly Clings to Archaic Mercantilist Economics
President Trump Stubbornly Clings to Archaic Mercantilist Economics
22 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in Adam Smith, applied price theory, economic history, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: free trade, tarrifs
The unfair competition argument and the push for a ‘Temu tax’
21 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
There are many arguments put forward for why trade should be restricted. In my ECONS102 class last week, as part of our topic on international trade and globalisation we covered five of the most common, each of which has a little story that goes along with it:The jobs argument: Trade with other countries will lower…
The unfair competition argument and the push for a ‘Temu tax’
Our New Amicus Brief in the Section 301 Tariff Case
15 Sep 2026 Leave a comment
in international economics, law and economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: child labour, free trade, tarrifs
The Cato Institute, Michael McConnell, and I filed an amicus brief in litigation challenging Trump’s massive Section 301 tariffs, which use “forced labor” as a pretext for sweeping protectionism.
Our New Amicus Brief in the Section 301 Tariff Case
Greg Ip Is Mistaken Again About U.S. Trade Deficits
15 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, growth miracles, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade
TweetHere’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal. Editor: Writing about U.S. trade deficits, Greg Ip declares that “by exporting so much, China effectively forces its trading partners to run deficits” (“The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances,” June 12). Wrong. U.S. trade deficits occur whenever foreigners sell more to us than they…
Greg Ip Is Mistaken Again About U.S. Trade Deficits
Jamieson Greer’s Ignorance of Economics and History Is Alarming
02 Jun 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, economic history, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: free trade, tarrifs
TweetHere’s a letter to F&D Magazine, a publication of the IMF. Editor: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer wrote more than 2,100 words about trade yet managed to get correct approximately nothing (“Economics for the Real Economy,” June 2026). Just listing his errors would take nearly as many words, so I here address only one of…
Jamieson Greer’s Ignorance of Economics and History Is Alarming
They Don’t Deserve the Benefit of the Doubt
17 May 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tarrifs
TweetHere’s a letter to a new correspondent. Mr. H__: Thanks for your email. You write, in response to this post of mine, that I am “too quick at second guessing the president and his administration on its determination of the trade behaviors of other countries.” You say that I “owe the administration the benefit of…
They Don’t Deserve the Benefit of the Doubt
China Shock 2.0 vs. China Shock 1.0
04 May 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, growth miracles, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, survivor principle Tags: China, free trade
TweetThis post by Oxford economist J. Zachary Mazlish is very good; I encourage you to read it. (HT David Levey) Nevertheless, there are two points that I think to be worth making in response to Mazlish’s post. I will here make one of these points. I’ll make the other of these points in a follow-up…
China Shock 2.0 vs. China Shock 1.0
The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won
18 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic history, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economics, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction, free trade, tarrifs
In our textbook, Modern Principles, Tyler and I emphasize that Congress and the President are subject to a higher law, the law of supply and demand. In an excellent column, Jason Furman gives a clear example of how difficult it is to fight the law of inelastic demand: …Today a given number of autoworkers can…
The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply,…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
Trump’s Tariffs Have Not Shifted the Trade Deficit
21 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tarrifs
The recent Supreme Court decision that President Trump did not have arbitrary and unbounded powers he has claimed to impose or retrace tariffs came as no surprise, for a variety reasons laid out in earlier posts here, here, and here. But here I want to focus on a different claim: that the reason for tariffs…
Trump’s Tariffs Have Not Shifted the Trade Deficit
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part II
18 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tarrifs
In Part I of this series, we reviewed some new research from the New York Federal Reserve. That study showed that Americans bear about 90 percent of the burden of Trump’s Liberation Day trade taxes. Though I added my own two cents because I don’t actually care that much about who bears the burden of […]
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part II
The economic impacts of the 2008 NZ-China Free Trade Agreement
06 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: China, free trade, free trade agreements, tariffs
New Zealand was the first Western developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China, and it came into force in 2008. At the time, the New Zealand government estimated an increase in exports to China of between NZ$225 million and NZ$350 million (between US$180 million and US$280 million), and Ministry of Foreign Affairs…
The economic impacts of the 2008 NZ-China Free Trade Agreement
Tariffs and Inflation: Where Are We?
05 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tariffs
One of the predictions made by economists when President Trump announce the start of his freewheeling tariff policies in April 2025 was that the costs of the tariffs would ultimately be passed through to consumers, leading to overall higher inflation. Well, President Trump has been tossing out tariff threats, keeping some and withdrawing others. However,…
Tariffs and Inflation: Where Are We?
Debunking Trump’s Error-Filled WSJ Column
04 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, fisheries economics, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, international economic law, international economics, macroeconomics, politics - USA, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: free trade, tarrifs
Donald Trump, who describes himself as “Tariff Man,” recently wrote a column in defense of his protectionist trade policy for the Wall Street Journal. After reading the column, my first thought was that Trump was trying to show he is more economically illiterate than Joe Biden (a big challenge, as seen here and here). And […]
Debunking Trump’s Error-Filled WSJ Column
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
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