More on Down and Out in America
03 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, politics - USA Tags: living standards, The Great Enrichment
Top incomes and the decline of unions in Canada, France and Italy
03 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, economic history, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, Milton Friedman, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, rentseeking, unions Tags: Canada, entrepreneurial alertness, France, Italy, top 1%, union power, union wage premium
The French ruling class is as lazy as their transnational co-conspirators down under. French union membership is in serious decline albeit from a low base. An opportunity lost for the French ruling class. It has not lifted a finger to extract additional labour surplus from the downtrodden French proletariat now stripped of their only line of collective defence against capitalist exploitation.
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The top 10% and top 1% in France are no better off than two generations ago despite the decline of French unions. The French Left must be most disappointed. No kicking in the rotten door of the permanent revolution anytime soon after the immiserised French proletariat rises up because it has nothing to lose but its chains. The 21st century version of the Marxist call to the barricades would be a proletariat stirred to revolution with nothing to lose but their suburban home, motorcar, IPad and air points
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The Italian ruling class has had little success in bringing Italian unions down. The top 10% in Italy is earning no more now than back when the Red Brigades were gunning for them.
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The top 1% in Italy is doing a little bit better than when the Red Brigade was gunning for them, but not much more. Unions don’t figure in explaining that small rise in Italian top 1% incomes over the last 40 years. Italian unions are pretty much a strong as they were 40 years ago in membership. Italian employment protection laws are pretty much as strong as they used to be too.
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The Canadian ruling classes even more incompetent than their transnational co-conspirators over in Italy. There appears to have been next to no decline in union membership in Canada. The Canadian top 10% is not earning any more than back in the 60s.
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The Canadian top 1% is doing a little bit better than 25 years ago also but not off the back of unions which are almost as strong as in the past. The Canadian Left will have to look for a different hypothesis than the ravages of the top 1%.
Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
All in all, the Economic Policy Institute simply got lucky with a spurious correlation between top incomes and union membership in the USA.
Did the British disease pass retirees by? British retiree and non-retiree median real household income by Prime Minister since 1977
03 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic growth, economic history, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: British economy, British politics, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair
The British disease and the horrors of Thatchernomics past British retirees by as did pretty much the Global Financial Crisis. Slow and steady as she goes under every Prime Minister since 1977 has been year in year out result for the real disposable median incomes of British retired households. Despite it all, British retiree household incomes increased by 170% since the winter of discontent. The fastest growth in retiree incomes was under Tony Blair.

Source: Release Edition Reference Tables – ONS.
Notes:
1 Households are ranked by their equivalised disposable incomes, using the modified-OECD scale.
2 1994/95 represents the financial year ending 1995, and similarly through to 2014/15, which represents the financial year ending 2015.
3 Income figures have been deflated to 2014/15 prices using an implied deflator for the household sector.
It has been a much rockier ride for British households yet to retire. Once again, the only time a sustained real income increases for non-retired households was under Thatcher and Blair. Despite it all, household real incomes have doubled since the winter of discontent. The majority of that doubling was under the dead hand of Tony Blair. British Labour now spends a considerable amount of time repudiating that time of unusually rapid household income growth across all of British society.

Source: Release Edition Reference Tables – ONS.
Notes:
1 Households are ranked by their equivalised disposable incomes, using the modified-OECD scale.
2 1994/95 represents the financial year ending 1995, and similarly through to 2014/15, which represents the financial year ending 2015.
3 Income figures have been deflated to 2014/15 prices using an implied deflator for the household sector.
Growth in median British real household incomes by Prime Minister since 1977
03 Nov 2015 2 Comments
in applied welfare economics, economic growth, economic history, macroeconomics
The only two periods of sustained increases in median equivalised British real household disposable income is was under Mrs Thatcher, once she got going on Thatchernomics and under Tony Blair. Despite the ups and downs, real household incomes more than doubled in Britain since the winter of discontent. Equivalised income takes account of changes in the composition of households such as more single-parent households and fewer children since 1977.

Source: Release Edition Reference Tables – ONS.
Notes:
1 Households are ranked by their equivalised disposable incomes, using the modified-OECD scale.
2 1994/95 represents the financial year ending 1995, and similarly through to 2014/15, which represents the financial year ending 2015.
3 Income figures have been deflated to 2014/15 prices using an implied deflator for the household sector
@resfoundation shows @jeremycorbyn how good it was under Blair
02 Nov 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic history, labour economics, poverty and inequality
@EconomicPolicy showed gender pay equality when arguing the opposite @CHSommers @Mark_J_Perry
02 Nov 2015 2 Comments
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, discrimination, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - USA Tags: asymmetric marriage premium, compensating differentials, gender wage gap, marital division of labour, power couples, top 1%, top incomes, Twitter left, union power, union wage premium
The Economic Policy Institute were good enough to dig out unit record data on the unadjusted US gender wage gap by percentiles. In attempting to show there was a persistent gender pay gap, the impeccably left-wing Economic Policy Institute showed that the unadjusted gender pay gap has all but disappeared in the USA.
There is next to no gender wage gap even in unadjusted terms towards the bottom of the labour market. This is despite all the protestations of the Left of an inherent inequality of bargaining power between the bosses and workers.
The low paid are supposed to be powerless unless unionised. Declining unionisation is a leading explanation on the Left of the rising income shares of the top 10%, top 1% in the top 0.1%.

If that inherent inequality of bargaining power trundled out at every opportunity by the Twitter Left explains anything in the labour market, this inequality of bargaining power should be operating with greatest strength at the bottom of the labour market.
Clearly the inherent inequality of bargaining power between the bosses and workers is not doing its job regarding the gender wage gap. The gender wage gap in the USA increases as you move up the income ladder rather than the other way around.
The explanation of the Economic Policy Institute for greater gender pay equality at the bottom is the minimum wage and male wage stagnation:
It is interesting to note that the wage gap between genders is smaller at the 10th percentile than at the 95th. At the 10th percentile, women earn 91 percent of men’s wages while women make only 79 percent of men’s wages at the 95th percentile.
The minimum wage is partially responsible for this greater equality among the lowest earners—it sets a wage floor that applies to everyone, which means that people near the bottom of the distribution are likely to make more equal wages. Also, low-wage workers are disproportionately women, which means that the minimum wage particularly bolsters women’s wages.
…Although women have seen modest wage gains in the last several decades, the main reason the gender wage gap has slowly narrowed is that the vast majority of men’s wages have stagnated or declined.
It is a bit rich for the Economic Policy Institute to praise the minimum wage as a force for increasing incomes after spending so much of its time saying how the minimum wage has fallen way behind wages growth in general.
The gender gap lingers at the top of the labour market despite the quite substantial wage gains for women as compared to men over the past 15 years. The Economic Policy Institute dismissed the substantial gains as modest despite their own documenting of them.
It is even richer for the Economic Policy Institute to start extending the male wage stagnation hypothesis to the top 20% and top 10%.
The top of the income distribution has not been known previously known as victims of wage stagnation.
The gender wage gap remains stubbornly high at the top end of the US labour market at 20% for the last few decades. The gender wage is so large and has stayed large at the top half of the labour market for the past few decades because of compensating differentials. Women on higher incomes are balancing families and careers in choosing the occupations that best suits each individual woman, their talents and educational choices.
Source: OECD Employment Database.
Studies of top earning professionals show that they make quite deliberate choices between family and career. The better explanation of why so many women are in a particular occupation is job sorting: that particular job has flexible hours and the skills do not depreciate as fast for workers who take time off, working part-time or returning from time out of the workforce. Low job turnover workers will be employed by firms that invest more in training and job specific human capital.
- Higher job turnover workers, such as women with children, will tend to move into jobs that have less investment in specialised human capital, and where their human capital depreciates at a slower pace.
- Women, including low paid women, select careers in jobs that match best in terms of work life balance and allows them to enter and leave the workforce with minimum penalty and loss of skills through depreciation and obsolescence.
This is the choice hypothesis of the gender wage gap. Women choose to educate for occupations where human capital depreciates at a slower pace. This gender wage gap for professionals can be explained by the marriage market combined with assortative mating:
- Graduates are likely to marry each other and form power couples; and
- There tends to be an age gap between men and women in long-term relationships and marriages of two years.
This two-year age gap means that the husband has two additional years of work experience and career advancement. This is likely to translate into higher pay and more immediate promotional prospects. Maximising household income would imply that the member of the household with a higher income, and greater immediate promotional prospects stay in the workforce.
This is consistent with the choice hypothesis and equalising differentials as the explanation for the gender wage gap. As Solomon Polachek explains:
At least in the past, getting married and having children meant one thing for men and another thing for women. Because women typically bear the brunt of child-rearing, married men with children work more over their lives than married women. This division of labour is exacerbated by the extent to which married women are, on average, younger and less educated than their husbands.
This pattern of earnings behaviour and human capital and career investment will persist until women start pairing off with men who are the same age or younger than them.
In low-paying jobs, there is little in the way of trade-offs other than full-time or part-time work. Low-paid jobs do not involve choosing majors at university, choosing careers, industries and employers that call for long hours and uninterrupted careers or not so long hours, fewer human capital and promotional penalties for time off and more work-life balance. The choice hypothesis is the far better explanation for the persistence of the unadjusted gender wage gap in the USA as Polachek explains:
The gender wage gap for never marrieds is a mere 2.8%, compared with over 20% for marrieds. The gender wage gap for young workers is less than 5%, but about 25% for 55–64-year-old men and women.
If gender discrimination were the issue, one would need to explain why businesses pay single men and single women comparable salaries. The same applies to young men and young women. One would need to explain why businesses discriminate against older women, but not against younger women. If corporations discriminate by gender, why are these employers paying any groups of men and women roughly equal pay?
Why is there no discrimination against young single women, but large amounts of discrimination against older married women? … Each type of possible discrimination is inconsistent with negligible wage differences among single and younger employees compared with the large gap among married men and women (especially those with children, and even more so for those who space children widely apart)
The main drivers of the gender wage gap are unknown to employers such as whether the would-be recruit or employer is married, their partner is present, how many children they have, how many of these children are under 12, and how many years are there between the births of their children.
@economicpolicy Top incomes and the decline of unions in the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand
02 Nov 2015 4 Comments
in applied welfare economics, labour economics, Marxist economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, unions Tags: top 1%, union power, union wage premium
The Left in the USA and the UK like to show correlations between top incomes and the decline of union membership.
I thought I would check how this hypothesis travelled to European offshoots such as Australia and New Zealand. For example, in the USA, top income shares have been increasing while union membership has been in decline since 1960.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
In the UK, the relationship between union membership and top incomes is gentler than in the USA.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
Moving down under, the relationship between top incomes and union membership is non-existent in New Zealand.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
The same pretty much goes for Australia in terms of no relationship between top incomes in union membership to extent that this relationship is anything more than a spurious correlation.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.

Source: OECD Stat and Top Incomes Database.
Everything is on sale compared to 1979 @BernieSanders @jeremycorbyn
29 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic history, politics - USA Tags: 2016 presidential election, good old days, Leftover Left, living standards, Twitter left
HT: Stephen Berry.
Medsafe is a waste of time
29 Oct 2015 1 Comment
in applied welfare economics, economics of regulation, health economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: drug lags, Drug safety
Medsafe denied New Zealanders access to four drugs approved in comparable regulatory jurisdictions in the last three years. Medsafe rejected two other drugs in the last three years but these drugs were not approved in comparable jurisdictions. Doxorubicin Liposomal, chemotherapy drug, is not as yet actually refused, its application is pending. Medsafe is not involved in the funding of medicines; this is the responsibility of PHARMAC.

Source: data released 29 October 2015 pursuant to an Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Health.
What’s the point of this regulatory arm of the Ministry of Health? Is it a waste of space? Should not New Zealand automatically register any drug approved in the USA, UK, Canada, Australia or Germany? What can medical trials in New Zealand find out were not already found out overseas? Medsafe targets processing applications for the approval of new drugs in New Zealand to be done within 200 days. That’s 200 days too many.
Barriers to entry – costs ($s) of bringing new drugs to the market have risen manyfold #econ3 http://t.co/MFHTFhTLrj—
Geoff Riley (@tutor2u_econ) November 30, 2014
It should be lawful under the Medicines Act 1981 to market any drug in New Zealand which any of Australia, UK, USA, Canada or Germany has approved for prescription to patients.
SEEN & UNSEEN/ How much illness & death could be averted by limiting the FDA to safety, leaving efficacy to markets? http://t.co/4QkUuCCMDN—
Robert Graboyes (@Robert_Graboyes) March 11, 2015
If economists have a bitter drinking song, a battle cry that unites the warring schools of economic thought all, it would be “how many people has the FDA killed today”. For example, drugs became available years after they were on the market outside the USA because of drug approval lags at the FDA. The dead are many. To quote David Friedman:
In 1981… the FDA published a press release confessing to mass murder. That was not, of course, the way in which the release was worded; it was simply an announcement that the FDA had approved the use of timolol, a ß-blocker, to prevent recurrences of heart attacks. At the time timolol was approved, ß-blockers had been widely used outside the U.S. for over ten years. It was estimated that the use of timolol would save from seven thousand to ten thousand lives a year in the U.S. So the FDA, by forbidding the use of ß-blockers before 1981, was responsible for something close to a hundred thousand unnecessary deaths.
In 1962, an amended law gave the FDA authority to judge if a new drug produced the results for which it had been developed. Formerly, the FDA monitored only drug safety. It previously had only sixty days to decide this. Drug trials can now take up to 10 years.
Sam Peltzman showed in a famous paper in 1973 that these 1962 amendments reduced the introduction of new drugs in the USA from an average of forty-three annually in the decade before the 1962 amendments to sixteen annually in the ten years afterwards. No increase in drug safety was identified.
Halving every 9 years.
New approved drugs per billion dollars spent on research & development
bit.ly/1StxuV9 http://t.co/Hvx6mQ0lBa—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) August 01, 2015
Medsafe is a cost with no benefits to the New Zealand public. Medsafe has around 60 staff operating out of two offices, with centralised administrative functions, product approval and standard setting at the head office in Wellington.

How much of this budget of several million for Medsafe could be redirected to funding more life-saving and life changing drugs for use in New Zealand? This is rather than wasted on duplicating clinical trials already completed overseas or at the minimum duplicating regulatory approval processes, paperwork already completed overseas but not requiring a duplicate clinical trial in New Zealand.
At a minimum, the net benefits of the entire drug approval framework over the past three years in New Zealand is riding out on rejecting for approval half a dozen drugs, four of which are approved as safe in other comparable jurisdictions. That’s a pretty thin reed on which to hang a large budget that could be used by PHARMAC to fund life-saving drugs.
There should be a post box at the Ministry of Health to receive the certifications from overseas drug regulation agencies. Anything more is a deadly waste of taxpayers’ money.
My next round of Official Information Act requests will ask whether the minister and associate ministers of health were briefed on refusals of new medicines approved in other jurisdictions. Next I will ask:
- for any evidence that a separate regulatory authority for drug approvals in New Zealand has any benefits, and
- whether the Medsafe regime has ever been subject to a cost benefit analysis.
I have previously asked for information on drug approval lags. That was refused on the grounds I can look it up for myself on a rather complicated public database that requires knowledge of the names of medicines submitted for approval. Still mulling over what to do about that.
@oxfamgb @GreenpeaceUSA Cooking is now one of the biggest causes for outdoor air pollution
28 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, development economics, energy economics, environmental economics, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: air pollution, energy poverty, indoor air pollution
@BernieSanders @HillaryClinton the middle class is shrinking because more people are becoming rich
27 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic history, politics - USA
In 1967, only 1 in 12 US households made $100k or more per year (in 2014 dollars). Now 1 in 4 household make $100k+ https://t.co/OPnZcRsR3y—
Mark J. Perry (@Mark_J_Perry) October 26, 2015
@MaxCRoser the impact of the top 1% on Swedish economic growth
25 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, economic growth, economic history, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: endogenous growth theory, envy, Leftover Left, politics of envy, Sweden, top 1%
#Sweden: Inequality decreased hugely in the 20th century – but is now rising.
bit.ly/1DEBY1P https://t.co/MHPgp29AWZ—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) October 24, 2015
A fall in the share of the top 1% of total Swedish total incomes was in tune with the emergence of a new word in the English language which was Swedosclerosis. That was the long stagnation in the Swedish economy in the 1970s and the 1980s with Swedish economic growth well below that in the trend rate of growth in the USA. Only after an increase in the top 1% share in Sweden did economic growth start recovering to trend.

Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/
In the chart above, a flat-line in real GDP per working age Swede is growth at the trend rate of the US economy for the 20th century which was 1.9% per year. A falling line is Swedish growth below trend, a rising line is growth above that trend rate of 1.9% in Sweden. A trend rate of 1.9% is the trend rate of growth currently used by Edward Prescott for the USA in the 20th century.
Angus Deaton on slow growth as a force for distributional conflict
25 Oct 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, income redistribution, liberalism, Public Choice, rentseeking Tags: Angus Deaton, The Great Enrichment, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
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