Percentage of people around the world who own smartphones, via @conradhackett. Note #China. http://t.co/wAOmIklVbW—
Legatum Institute (@LegatumInst) May 30, 2015
Extreme poverty is not the same thing as digital poverty
01 Jul 2015 Leave a comment
Fastest-growing economies and fastest-growing populations
28 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, population economics Tags: ageing society, labour demographics
India at night in 1994 and 2010 – Estimating Poverty Using Nightlights
27 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, econometerics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: India, measurement error, national accounts

Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin last year suggested that national accounting estimates of poverty should be adjusted for the evolution of satellite-recorded night-time lights. I agree from personal experience.
In India between 1994 and 2010, its survey income grew by 29% but its GDP per capita more than doubled during this time. We see that lights in India increase dramatically both in their intensity over the major cities as well as in their extent over previously dark areas of the country. This suggests that the GDP estimate is a more accurate assessment of economic development of India and the faster reduction of poverty than income surveys suggest.
Source: The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/
National accounting data on real GDP, PPP would suggest that Indonesia is a much wealthier country than the Philippines. The Philippines from about the late 1998, has had rapid economic growth, but so has Indonesia. I first visited the Philippines in 1997. I have never visited Indonesia.
When I first visited my parents-in-law in the Philippines in 1998, that part of Leyte had no sealed roads and no phones.
The next time I visited, the road was being sealed and mobile reception was better if you had an aerial on the roof.
After a five year gap in visiting, not only was mobile reception good, there was cable TV if you wanted it. When I visited in 2012, there was wireless internet if you had outside aerial.
Christmas before last, we hot spotted off my sister-in-law’s mobile. Neighbours have Skype if we want to say hello. I don’t know how that rapid change in economic fortunes is captured accurately in national accounting figures.
Is investor state dispute settlement a form of overseas development assistance?
24 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, international economic law, international economics, law and economics, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, Richard Posner Tags: European Court of Justice, free trade agreements, International Court of Justice, international law, investor state dispute settlement, ODA, overseas development assistance, preferential trade agreements, regional trade agreements, WTO
Would objections to the Investor State Dispute Settlement provisions in the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership wilt away if the adjudicating body was the International Court of Justice? The left-wing opponents of investor state dispute settlement genuflect at the very mention of the International Court of Justice and international law generally (unless it is international economic law).

Disputes over the provisions of European union treaties are adjudicated by the European Court of Justice. The judgements of that court brought by individuals against member states so annoy the British that it is a leading reason for many British wanting to leave the European Union and replace the Human Rights Act 1998 with a British Bill Of Rights policed by British courts rather than by the European Court of Justice and European human rights law.
It is routine for any treaty to have some provision for arbitration of disputes. This includes trade and investment treaties.
The World Trade Organisation treaty includes a dispute settlement provision with arbitrators based in Geneva. Some of the more than 400 cases heard have been motivated by discrimination against imports on the basis of a breached environmental protection policies of the importing country.

A number of countries want to ban imports that are produced in ways that upset them. Others want to include labour and environmental standards in trade agreements to impose developed country standards on developing countries in what is a new form of colonialism.
I have previously said that investor State Dispute Settlement provisions have no place in trade and investment treaties between democracies. I must now admit there are good reasons to have arbitration clauses in treaties between democracies.
The puzzle is why refer these trade and investment disputes to a little-known arbitration body adjunct to the World Bank rather than the far more prestigious International Court of Justice.
Perhaps the reason is both sides want an arbitrator who is not too strong and not too credible. It would look very bad if the International Court of Justice was to rule against you.
William Landes and Richard Posner contended that judicial independence maximises the value of legislative deals with interest groups by enhancing the durability of those deals.
Why no International Court of Commercial Law? When deciding what type in judiciary to enforce international trade bargains, the signatories may prefer a less credible adjudication and enforcement mechanism in case they want to opt out of it or chip around the decision.
The jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice is to settle, in accordance with international law, legal disputes submitted to it by special agreement and matters specifically provided for in treaties and conventions in force.
UN member states are the parties to any litigation but that doesn’t stop them raising cases on behalf of individuals. That said, organizations, private enterprises, and individuals cannot have their cases taken to the International Court, such as to appeal a national supreme court’s ruling. Only the states can bring the cases and become the defendants of the cases.
The International Court of Justice is different from the European Court of Justice because individuals cannot easily bring complaints before it. One of the causes of action before the European Court of Adjusters is under European competition law over member states providing financial aid to industries.
Democratic countries with high levels of economic and social integration, such as the European union, do find it in advantage to set up a European wide Court to adjudicate disputes over rights under European law.
Why then would a democracy sign up to an investment protection treaty with a developing country? One reason is overseas development assistance.
Developing countries with corrupt and incompetent courts, politicians and bureaucracies sign international treaties as a way of assuring foreign investors and trading partners of some degree of security of their property rights and their ability to enforce contracts with suppliers and buyers.
By folding these assurances into trade treaties, the developing country has a stronger incentive to honour its promises. There will be domestic constituencies wanting to retain reciprocal export market access who will lobby for the honouring of the promises of legal protection to investors and businesses in their home country.
New Zealand signing up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership is an example of this form of overseas development assistance. Exporters and investors from the developing country who export and invest in New Zealand have another reason to support more secure property rights and better enforcement of contracts in their home country as a way of securing their treaty rights to export and invest in New Zealand.
The Left of the political spectrum should be keen on this form of overseas development considering their general belief in greatly increasing the amount spent on overseas development assistance. Rather than pay cash to the development country, the payment is in kind as reciprocal legal promises.
Trade treaties that include investor state dispute settlement are forms of governance assistance to developing countries. The reciprocal exchange of promises about investor protection and the enforcement of contracts and property rights improves the quality of governance in the developing country.
The countries most likely to be subject to investor state dispute settlement are those with weaker governance. Even in the European Union, the member states most likely to be sued are former communist countries. The most common course of action was the cancellation of a licence or permit.

Investor state dispute settlement clauses are no different from any other international treaty include environmental and human rights treaties. All these treaties require countries to give up part of their sovereignty.

Democracies give up their sovereignty in investor state dispute settlement in the hope that developing country partners to the treaty will improve the development potential of their country through better governance and more secure property rights.
That is an overseas development aid objective the Left of the political spectrum should support, but it does not. The Left of the political spectrum is happy to use trade agreements to impose developed country labour and environmental standards on poor countries desperate for access to rich country markets, but is not willing to give up anything in return.
If I could only show one graph on The Great Fact
21 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: The Great Enrichment, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
Global median income doubled(!) over the last 10 years.
And inequality falling further.bit.ly/1JRwv90 http://t.co/lkAi265DaY—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) June 20, 2015
The Great Fact: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030
19 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: extreme poverty The Great Fact, global poverty, The Great Enrichment, The Great Escape
A look at hunger reduction → performance + projections by region: brook.gs/1FWLLOS http://t.co/ELNzKn6BCQ—
Brookings Global (@BrookingsGlobal) June 16, 2015
The breath-taking scale of family remittances
16 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: economics of immigration, family remittances
Celebrate the 1st Int'l Day of #Family #Remittances w/ @IFADnews @WorldBank wrld.bg/OlxrU http://t.co/D0Cw3wtaMI—
World Bank (@WorldBank) June 16, 2015
The Great Fact in one chart
16 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: extreme poverty, global poverty The Great Fact
Fewer people in the world are poor.
(From: econ.st/1KMw52Y) http://t.co/K1U3O4NZk2—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) June 07, 2015
Where was malaria once prevalent?
14 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, environmental economics, global warming, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: endemic diseases, global warming, infectious diseases, malaria, The Great Escape
Malaria was prevalent in Europe & USA
More in my Visual History of Global Health: OurWorldInData.org/VisualHistoryO… http://t.co/Fm21vXZJkS—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) June 08, 2015
Have the mass kidnappings extended to Oxfam and other principled ODA activists?
11 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in applied welfare economics, development economics, economic history, growth disasters, growth miracles, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA Tags: extreme poverty, global poverty, Left-wing hypocrisy, The Great Enrichment, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
Oxfam and other ODA activists should be dancing in the streets to celebrate the doubling of global median income in the last 10 years.
This is awesome news!!
Global median income has doubled(!) over the last 10 yearsNew paper: bit.ly/1JRwv90 http://t.co/4cq6x5pXpu—
Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) May 17, 2015
The only reason for them not doing this as they must have been kidnapped en mass.
Staggering #inequality: Top 1% will own 50% of world's wealth by 2016. Help us to #EvenItUp! http://t.co/NcNOqVcTgS—
Oxfam International (@Oxfam) March 20, 2015
We can only hope for their safe release.
Securing a just world means challenging the power of the 1% say civil society groups #WSF2015 oxf.am/ZfkL http://t.co/r2S0lkBoC2—
Oxfam New Zealand (@oxfamnz) March 23, 2015
Lower prices for oil/other commodities have intensified the slowdown in dev'ing countries wrld.bg/O9hq8 #GEP http://t.co/2IsmedNmgW—
World Bank Pubs (@WBPubs) June 11, 2015
Composition of the bottom 40% of the population in #LAC countries: wrld.bg/NkKZP #sharedprosperity http://t.co/MdublHSp59—
World Bank Pubs (@WBPubs) June 09, 2015
The extreme poor live in conflict & rural areas: wrld.bg/Nynge #endpoverty http://t.co/43HDDI11JR—
World Bank (@WorldBank) May 31, 2015
Increases in global life expectancy by region and cause
11 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: life expectancy, The Great Escape
Solar power versus economic development
11 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: renewable energy, solar power
The Great Escape: winning the war on disease
10 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics Tags: capitalism and freedom, extreme poverty, global poverty, life expectancy, The Great Escape, The Great Fact
The price, output and acreage effects of a GMO ban
08 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, economics of regulation, environmental economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, health economics, politics - Australia, politics - New Zealand, politics - USA, population economics, technological progress Tags: agricultural economics, expressive voting, extreme poverty, global hunger, global poverty, GMOs, Left-wing hypocrisy, rational ignorance, rational irrationality, The Great Fact
Organic farming is a gift….
facebook.com/welovegv http://t.co/iu8Jq0KcHD—
C. S. Prakash (@AgBioWorld) June 05, 2015
Projected increases in corn and soy prices in a world without GMOs
ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/2049… http://t.co/PNydjpl59K—
C. S. Prakash (@AgBioWorld) June 08, 2015
If you outlaw GMOs, be prepared to bring millions of acres of forest land, cropland & pasture under farming http://t.co/H9ftkxhXYe—
C. S. Prakash (@AgBioWorld) June 08, 2015
If GMOs are banned today in the US, what would be the crop yield reduction? http://t.co/pEn73PODcR—
C. S. Prakash (@AgBioWorld) June 08, 2015
Climate change saving hundreds of thousands of lives in Africa
08 Jun 2015 Leave a comment
in development economics, environmental economics, global warming, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: Africa, agricultural economics, climate alarmism, drought, extreme poverty, famine, global poverty, global warming
Climate change saving hundreds of thousands of lives in Africa
thetimes.co.uk/tto/environmen…
@BarackObama hates that. http://t.co/cneiSS60wT—
Steve Goddard (@SteveSGoddard) June 02, 2015



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