The Great Fact, past and future, in one chart

When did Down Under overtake the Mother Country? Real GDP Britain, Australia and New Zealand 1820–2010

Pretty quickly according to figure 1. Britain, Australia and New Zealand quickly had similar standards of living in the middle of the 19th century until about 1880. Australia was richer for about 20 years until the great Federation drought took the wind out of its sails.

Figure 1:  British, Australian and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

image

Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

New Zealand then broke away at the end of the Second World War from both Australia and UK. In the mid-1960s circumstances changed with Australia drifting ahead of the UK and New Zealand drifting away to a lower standard of living.

Figure 2:  British and Australian GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

image

Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 2 shows that from about 1960 until 1990 Australia was richer than the UK. After that, the growth dividend of Thatchernomics allowed the British to catch up again to the Australians.

Figure 3:  British and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

image

Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 3 shows that New Zealand was richer than the UK in the mid-20th century. The lost decades in New Zealand from 1974 to 1992 let the sick man of Europe overtake New Zealand before Thatchernomics caused a growth spurt in the UK to take the British well ahead.

Figure 4: Australian and New Zealand GDP per capita (1990 Int. GK$PPP), 1820 – 2010

image

Source: The Maddison-Project, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm 2013 version.

Figure 4 shows that New Zealand was richer than Australian in the first part of the post-war period. The divergence started with the onset of the lost decades in New Zealand in the early 1970s.

The International diffusion of the Internet

Leading causes of death in Africa

Urban planners are confident souls

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from The transformation of cities: A suburban world | The Economist via demographia.com

The Great Escape – child mortality since 1950

The fiscal consequences of oil at $50 a barrel

The crazy mixed up priorities of climate alarmists-in-chief

The Great Escape – Child mortality is falling in Africa

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The robots are coming, the robots are coming – been there, done that in Japan

When I was a kid, I used to like reading the Encyclopaedia Britannica. I read them from cover to cover.

One of the things I recalled from the Encyclopaedia Britannica was that in 1961 nearly half of the Japanese workforce worked in the agricultural sector.

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I notice that anomaly when I was reading the Encyclopaedia Britannica entry on Japan in the 1970s. Japan had undergoing an economic transformation since my Encyclopaedia Britannica’s were written in 1961. It was very much out of date.

Australian manufacturing was being outcompeted in every direction from automobiles to clothing and footwear by the Japanese manufacturing sector back when I was a teenager.

The Japanese economic miracle absorbed the Japanese agricultural labour force without anybody having time to shout "the robots are coming, the robots are coming".

There is a lesson in there somewhere for the current breathless journalism, with far too many academic fellow travellers about "the robots are coming, the robots are coming".

When I was a student at graduate school in Japan, I visited a Japanese factory in 1996 that was completely automated bar one function. Only once did a human hand actually touch the electrical goods they were making. Naturally, at the Q&A session at the end of our visit, I asked when was his job going to be automated.

The killer air pollution that the Greens never mention

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Maybe joining Euroland isn’t that bad after all

When will capitalism abolish poverty?

When will Paul Ehrlich’s food riots be starting?

The Great Fact in East Asia

https://twitter.com/humanprogress/status/594875847552675841/photo/1

 

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