Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When recessions hit, the US Federal Reserve lowers its target interest rate–the “federal funds interest rate.” This interest rate applies to extremely safe borrowing: essentially, to overnight borrowing by large and safe financial institutions. The idea is that by altering this ultra-safe interest rate, other riskier interest rates will also be under pressure to adjust,…
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
09 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of natural disasters, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
I promised you I would be tracking this issue, and so here is a major development. From the QJE by Adrien Bilal and Diego R Känzig:: This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1○C warming reduces world…
New results on the economic costs of climate change
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply,…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
26 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in politics - USA, law and economics, econometerics, applied price theory, economics of crime Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, criminal deterrence
Using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from 2010 to 2019 and a vote share regression discontinuity design, we find that narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men ages 20 to 29 by 6.6%. This decline is driven predominantly by reductions in firearm-related deaths, including a large reduction in firearm…
“Tough on crime” is good for young men
23 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, survivor principle
In Part I and Part II of this series, we looked at research showing that Americans are bearing the burden of Trump’s trade taxes. Those findings are a useful antidote to Trump’s silly and illiterate claim that foreign companies are swallowing the added cost. In both of those columns, however, I pointed out that I’m […]
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part III
17 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply Tags: creative destruction
How many times have I heard versions of that claim? Erik Brynjolfsson picks up the telephone in the FT: While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP…
“You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics”
12 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, politics - New Zealand
With nine months to go, how much can opinion polls tell us about the general election on November 7? Short answer: not much. Based solely on polls, no one could have predicted the past three elections this early in the year they were held. Trends shifted over the subsequent months, and events (especially COVID in 2020) […]
Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year
06 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: China, free trade, free trade agreements, tariffs
New Zealand was the first Western developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China, and it came into force in 2008. At the time, the New Zealand government estimated an increase in exports to China of between NZ$225 million and NZ$350 million (between US$180 million and US$280 million), and Ministry of Foreign Affairs…
The economic impacts of the 2008 NZ-China Free Trade Agreement
05 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tariffs
One of the predictions made by economists when President Trump announce the start of his freewheeling tariff policies in April 2025 was that the costs of the tariffs would ultimately be passed through to consumers, leading to overall higher inflation. Well, President Trump has been tossing out tariff threats, keeping some and withdrawing others. However,…
Tariffs and Inflation: Where Are We?
30 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics Tags: taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Unless you’re a policy wonk, I realize “exciting” may not be the right word to describe new developments in public-finance economics. For nerds, however, three economists at the Joint Committee on Taxation have some important new research on the Laffer Curve. The study, authored by Rachel Moore, Brandon Pecoraro, and David Splinter, concludes that the […]
Exciting New Research on the Laffer Curve
26 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming
In this in-depth interview, economist and statistician Ross McKitrick discusses climate models, uncertainty, and whether the public climate debate is as scientifically balanced as often claimed. He also reflects on his role as a co-author of the recent U.S. Department of Energy report.
Ross McKitrick on Climate Models, Economic Impacts, and the DOE Report
20 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, industrial organisation, macroeconomics Tags: British disease
Let us hope: Britain is seeing early signs of a long-awaited turnaround of its productivity woes, according to an alternative measure that suggests output per hour worked has risen at a pace not seen since before the financial crisis. The Resolution Foundation said a “blistering” productivity surge has been masked by problems with official statistics and pointed…
Is there a British productivity comeback?
18 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: creative destruction, pessimist bias
There is a new and optimistic paper by Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt: Artificial intelligence is changing which tasks workers do and how they do them. Predicting its labor market consequences requires understanding how technical change affects workers’ productivity across tasks, how workers adapt by changing occupations and acquiring new skills, and how wages adjust…
AI, labor markets, and wages
06 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, international economics, macroeconomics
Here is another piece for “contrarian Tuesday,” like it or not: We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has…
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
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