Here is another piece for “contrarian Tuesday,” like it or not: We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has…
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
06 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, international economics, macroeconomics
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
US Growth: From Hours Worked or Productivity Gains?
30 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics
US economic growth can be divided into two parts: more hours worked, or more productivity per hour worked. In the past, the US labor force has been rising over time: the US labor force totaled 107 million people in 1980, 142 million in 2000, and was up to 171 million this year. However, after several…
US Growth: From Hours Worked or Productivity Gains?
A tale of two cities and rent control
23 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, econometerics, economics of regulation, law and economics, market efficiency, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, urban economics Tags: rent control
WSJ: What the Twin Cities Tell Us About Fixing the Housing CrisisThe Natural Experiment: In 2022, St. Paul enacted one of the strictest rent-control regimes in the country. The ordinance capped annual rent increases at 3% for most apartments, even empty ones. It didn’t adjust for inflation. … Across the Mississippi River, Minneapolis steered clear of rent…
A tale of two cities and rent control
Rent Control Creates Ghost Apartments
22 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of regulation, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, urban economics Tags: rent control
Adam Lehodey writing at City Journal: In New York City, making a profit on real estate has become increasingly difficult. Rent-stabilization laws built on the mantra that “housing is a human right,” a dysfunctional housing court, and myriad other interventions have driven thousands of units off the market, giving rise to the phenomenon of New York’s “ghost…
Rent Control Creates Ghost Apartments
Ask not what economics can do for sports; ask what sports can do for economics
20 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, history of economic thought, sports economics
Regular readers of this blog will know that I enjoy blogging about research that uses a sports setting to illustrate economic concepts (except when the research is terrible). Sport makes for an interesting setting for testing economic theories. The rules are known. The incentives are usually clear. The outcomes are usually unambiguous. Other real-world settings…
Ask not what economics can do for sports; ask what sports can do for economics
Is involuntary hospitalization working?
17 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of crime, health economics, law and economics Tags: economics of mental health
From Natalia Emanuel, Valentin Bolotnyy, and Pim Welle: The involuntary hospitalization of people experiencing a mental health crisis is a widespread practice, as common in the US as incarceration in state and federal prisons and 2.4 times as common as death from cancer. The intent of involuntary hospitalization is to prevent individuals from harming themselves…
Is involuntary hospitalization working?
“AI is everywhere but in the productivity statistics…”
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of information, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, industrial organisation Tags: creative destruction
These people are saying it is there too. Though I am not quite sure what they (or anyone, for that matter) mean by AI: First, we argue that AI can already be seen in productivity statistics for the United States. The production and use effects of software and software R&D (alone) contributed (a) 50 percent…
“AI is everywhere but in the productivity statistics…”
Congressional leadership is corrupt
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, politics - USA, Public Choice
Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders’ superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the…
Congressional leadership is corrupt
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
10 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand
In a post last week I included this chart of the latest annual OECD data on labour productivity, expressed in PPP terms. It was grim, in a familiar sort of way. New Zealand’s overall economic performance has long been poor (the halcyon days when New Zealand was in the top 3 in the world relegated […]
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
Climate Doomsday Prophecy Peddled By Academia Retracted In Disgrace
07 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, climate change, econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of education, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, politics - USA Tags: academic bias, climate activists
A widely-referenced 2024 study that predicted massive global economic damages due to climate change has now been retracted, The New York Times (NYT) reported on Wednesday.
Climate Doomsday Prophecy Peddled By Academia Retracted In Disgrace
Political pressure on the Fed
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
Andrew Leigh on big data vs. randomised controlled trials
20 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought
‘Big data’ has become the catchcry of many data scientists and researchers in recent years. It’s also become increasingly used in economics. However, by itself the analysis of big data doesn’t provide anything but big data correlations. Even when big datasets are available, there is still a place for randomised controlled trials (RCTs). That is…
Andrew Leigh on big data vs. randomised controlled trials
50 years of economic progress – but are New Zealand households better off?
18 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history Tags: housing affordability, The Great Enrichment
Wayne Jackson writes – The 50th anniversary of New Zealand’s Household Economic Survey (HES) provides a unique vantage point to assess how far households have come in terms of income, expenditure, and wealth accumulation. Comparing 1974 with 2024 reveals a story of rising prosperity, shifting household structures, and widening disparities. From dual‑income households to skyrocketing […]
50 years of economic progress – but are New Zealand households better off?
A new critique of RCTs
02 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of interventions because they rely on simple assumptions. Their validity also depends on an implicit assumption: that the research process itself—including how participants are assigned—does not affect outcomes. In this paper, I challenge this assumption by showing that outcomes can depend on the […]
A new critique of RCTs
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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