A firm with no employees is not a firm

Business demographic statistics in New Zealand include companies with zero employees and calls them a firm.

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

Every definition of a firm that I have seen refers to a firm as a relationship between employers, employees and others. There is team production or some sort of nexus of contracts or dependent assets, something social.

The notion is that transactions that normally take place in the market are taken out of the market and take place within the firm. Most profoundly, as Ronald Coase explained in 1937 in his seminal work The Nature of the Firm is what needs to be explained is the existence of the firm, with its

distinguishing mark … [of] the supersession of the price mechanism.

If there’s only one person in the firm, there is no one to transact with within the firm that the parties would normally have otherwise done in the market at arm’s length. There is no suppression of the price system, because all the dealings of the one person firm is with others. There are no transactions outside of the price system. As Barzel and Kochin explain when contrasting Ronald Coase’s theory of the firm with that of Alchian and Demsetz:

Even though they offer an alternative to Coase’s theory of the firm, their firm, nevertheless, is fundamentally a transaction cost phenomenon – it arises in response to the costs associated with measuring and policing various inputs and outputs.

Doug Allen, along with Eugene Fama, argue that all economic organisations are designed to maximise the gains from trade net of transaction costs. Other forms of organisation, forms of organisation that do not maximise the gains from trade net of transaction costs as well would not survive in market competition.

Transaction costs are defined by Allen as the costs of establishing and maintaining property rights. Yoram Barzel  defines (economic) property rights (in this paper, p. 394) as:

… an individual’s net valuation, in expected terms, of the ability to directly consume the services of the asset, or to consume it indirectly through exchange. A key word is ability: The definition is concerned not with what people are legally entitled to do but with what they believe they can do.

A property right, according to Alchian (1965, 1987) and Cheung (1969), is essentially the ability to enjoy a piece of property, but this ability to benefit from an asset or commodity, either directly, or indirectly through market exchange, is seldom unhindered. Eugene Fama observed that:

The striking insight of Alchian and Demsetz (1972) and Jensen and Meckling (1976) is in viewing the firm as a set of contracts among factors of production. In effect, the firm is viewed as a team whose members act from self-interest but realize that their destinies depend to some extent on the survival of the team in its competition with other teams.

If the firm consists only of the owner, there is no internal constraints on the establishment and maintenance of property rights because no one else is in the firm to cause any conflict. There is no nexus of contracts between different suppliers of production inputs whose destinies depend on the ability of them as a team to survive in competition with other teams.

Whatever constraints might arise about the ability of the owner to actually exercise property rights, none of these constraints arise internally to the firm because of the presence of employees or partners.

If there are no employees, if the firm only consist of the owner, the purpose of the firm, which is to make the incentives of workers compatible with those of owners is lost.

Firms, to be a firm, must have employees. If not employees, there must be at least more than one party involved, such as in a partnership.

Firms exist because it is cheaper to organize inputs within a firm than buy and sell in many different markets. This buying and selling requires a continual negotiation, renegotiation, enforcement and monitoring of contracts at arm’s length with independent suppliers of inputs. Barzel stressed this enforcement of property rights in an unpublished paper:

I hypothesize that the firm is organized for the express purpose of creating rights that are more economically enforced by non-state rather than by state means.

Many of these firms with zero employees in the New Zealand business demographic statistics, a classification that accounts for over 60% of all firms in New Zealand, are shelf companies or property investment companies.

There is no measuring and policing of inputs and outputs in a firm that has no employees and only an owner. These entities are not firms. They meet none of the criteria for a firm in the economics of industrial organisation.

This failure to distinguish between a firm and other forms of organisation leads the Minister of Economic Development to say unfortunate things such as:

97 per cent of enterprises in New Zealand are small businesses and have fewer than 20 employees.

Two thirds of that 97% of enterprises has no employees. Any discussion that pretends to know that there are too many or too few small and large firms in New Zealand should not be confused with other forms of organisation of capital that have nothing to do with the topic at hand, which is usually workplace productivity and entrepreneurial competence.

Many of these zero employee firms are not even economic organisations. They are legal mechanisms for exercising legal property rights. Including these property rights in business demographic statistics on business organisations is confusing.

Another friendly reminder of how correlation =/= causation

https://twitter.com/theLGmarianne/status/563553627391131649

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The success of monetarism and the death of the correlation between monetary growth and inflation

The Velocity of Money

Monetarists blame fluctuations in inflation on excessively volatile growth in monetary aggregates. In 1982, Friedman defined monetarism in an essay on defining monetarism as follows:

Like many other monetarists, I have concluded that the most important thing is to keep monetary policy from doing harm.

We believe that a steady rate of monetary growth would promote economic stability and that a moderate rate of monetary growth would prevent inflation

The U.S. data supported this hypothesis about the volatility of monetary growth and inflationuntil 1982, but since 1983 monetary aggregates have been essentially uncorrelated with subsequent inflation in the U.S.

Levis Kochin pointed out in 1979 that a well designed monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between any measure of monetary policy and subsequent inflation. The reason for this is the correlation between any variable and a constant is zero.

If monetary growth is stable, say, a constant growth rate of 4% per year, as advocated by Milton Friedman, monetary growth will have no correlations with any variable:

Poole (1993, 1994) and Tanner (1993) also argue that one predictable consequence of optimal monetary policy is that the correlation between monetary policy instruments and policy goals will be driven to zero.

Poole further contends that it is obvious to any careful reader of Theil (1964) that optimally variable policy will give rise to a zero correlation between policy and goal variable…

In 1966 Alan Walters, a U.K. monetarist, observed:

If the [monetary] authority was perfectly successful then we should observe variations in the rate of change of the stock of money but not variations in the rate of change of income… [a]ssuming that the authority’s objective is to stabilize the growth of income.

Milton Friedman in 2003, wrote about how the Fed acquired a good thermostat:

The contrast between the periods before and after the middle of the 1980s is remarkable.

Before, it is like a chart of the temperature in a room without a thermostat in a location with very variable climate; after, it is like the temperature in the same room but with a reasonably good though not perfect thermostat, and one that is set to a gradually declining temperature.

Sometime around 1985, the Fed appears to have acquired the thermostat that it had been seeking the whole of its life…

Prior to the 1980s, the Fed got into trouble because it generated wide fluctuations in monetary growth per unit of output. Far from promoting price stability, it was itself a major source of instability as Chart 1 illustrates.

Yet since the mid ’80s, it has managed to control the money supply in such a way as to offset changes not only in output but also in velocity.

Nick Rowe explained the difficulty of causation and correlation under different policy regimes and Milton Friedman’s thermostat superbly as an econometric problem Nick Rowe:

If a house has a good thermostat, we should observe a strong negative correlation between the amount of oil burned in the furnace (M), and the outside temperature (V).

But we should observe no correlation between the amount of oil burned in the furnace (M) and the inside temperature (P). And we should observe no correlation between the outside temperature (V) and the inside temperature (P).

An econometrician, observing the data, concludes that the amount of oil burned had no effect on the inside temperature. Neither did the outside temperature. The only effect of burning oil seemed to be that it reduced the outside temperature. An increase in M will cause a decline in V, and have no effect on P.

A second econometrician, observing the same data, concludes that causality runs in the opposite direction. The only effect of an increase in outside temperature is to reduce the amount of oil burned. An increase in V will cause a decline in M, and have no effect on P.

But both agree that M and V are irrelevant for P. They switch off the furnace, and stop wasting their money on oil.

Subsequent work of Levis Kochin showed that if the effects of fluctuations in monetary aggregates were not precisely known then the optimal policy would produce negative correlations between monetary aggregates and inflation:

The negative correlation results from coefficient uncertainty because the less certain we are about the size of a multiplier, the more cautious we should be in the application of the associated policy instrument.

Therefore, although optimal policy leads to lack of correlation between the goal and control variables if the coefficient is known, it will lead to a negative relationship if there is coefficient uncertainty. The higher the uncertainty, the more cautious will be the optimal policy response. Also, if the control variable can’t be controlled perfectly then the correlation between the goal and the control variable becomes positive i.e., the control errors are random…

Uncertainty about the impact of a policy  will stay the hand of any bureaucrat , much less a central banker, as Kochin and his co-author explain:

Uncertainty should lead to less policy action by the policymakers. The less policymakers are informed about the relevant parameters, the less activist the policy should be. With poor information about the effects of policy, very active policy runs a higher danger of introducing unnecessary fluctuations in the economy.

Some Ground Rules for the Minimum Wage debate

This is the best single paper I’ve seen written on the methodology of the minimum wage debate.

From a great blog I have just discovered, the author gives a good kicking to both sides for empiricial sloppiness, advocacy bias and plain bad economics. He also explains how to lift your game no matter where you are on the political spectrum.

Naturally, the author, , is an economics undergraduate.

Michael Tontchev's avatarGains from Trade

My latest article for Turning Point USA. I suggest some aspects of the debate that just need to go away. Your thoughts?

View original post

Ice cream has been blamed for a lot of social maladies

Icecream

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Correlation vs. Causality: Polio and ice cream

This is a pretty accurate assessment of when I was learning econometrics – maybe things have gotten better?

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John Kenneth Galbraith talking sense for once

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The four golden rules of econometrics

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Edward Leamer on the nature of econometrics

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Dilbert on winging it

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The spirit level approach to data analysis

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Data mining again

Significant

via http://xkcd.com/882/

The Death of Statistical Significance: Deirdre McCloskey

Publish or perish

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