Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders’ superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the…
Congressional leadership is corrupt
Congressional leadership is corrupt
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, financial economics, politics - USA, Public Choice
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
10 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand
In a post last week I included this chart of the latest annual OECD data on labour productivity, expressed in PPP terms. It was grim, in a familiar sort of way. New Zealand’s overall economic performance has long been poor (the halcyon days when New Zealand was in the top 3 in the world relegated […]
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
Climate Doomsday Prophecy Peddled By Academia Retracted In Disgrace
07 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, climate change, econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of education, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, politics - USA Tags: academic bias, climate activists
A widely-referenced 2024 study that predicted massive global economic damages due to climate change has now been retracted, The New York Times (NYT) reported on Wednesday.
Climate Doomsday Prophecy Peddled By Academia Retracted In Disgrace
Political pressure on the Fed
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
Andrew Leigh on big data vs. randomised controlled trials
20 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought
‘Big data’ has become the catchcry of many data scientists and researchers in recent years. It’s also become increasingly used in economics. However, by itself the analysis of big data doesn’t provide anything but big data correlations. Even when big datasets are available, there is still a place for randomised controlled trials (RCTs). That is…
Andrew Leigh on big data vs. randomised controlled trials
50 years of economic progress – but are New Zealand households better off?
18 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history Tags: housing affordability, The Great Enrichment
Wayne Jackson writes – The 50th anniversary of New Zealand’s Household Economic Survey (HES) provides a unique vantage point to assess how far households have come in terms of income, expenditure, and wealth accumulation. Comparing 1974 with 2024 reveals a story of rising prosperity, shifting household structures, and widening disparities. From dual‑income households to skyrocketing […]
50 years of economic progress – but are New Zealand households better off?
A new critique of RCTs
02 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of interventions because they rely on simple assumptions. Their validity also depends on an implicit assumption: that the research process itself—including how participants are assigned—does not affect outcomes. In this paper, I challenge this assumption by showing that outcomes can depend on the […]
A new critique of RCTs
The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials
31 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, law and order, racial discrimination
In a great paper, The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials, Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer and Randi Hjalmarsson exploit random variation in the jury pool to estimate the effect of race on criminal trials. The authors have data from nearly 800 trials in two Florida counties. On any given day, a jury pool is randomly […]
The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials
The supply side of media bias
12 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, politics - USA, survivor principle Tags: media bias
In my ECONS102 class, we cover economic explanations for media bias. Drawing on past research from Matthew Gentzkow and others, we demonstrate that there are demand-side explanations (media bias arises because of a bias in the preferences of the news-consuming public) and supply-side explanations (media bias arises because media firms segment the market, and focus…
The supply side of media bias
Michael Clemens on H1-B visas
24 Sep 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, entrepreneurship, human capital, international economics, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA Tags: economics of immigration
From 1990 to 2010, rising numbers of H-1B holders caused 30–50 percent of all productivity growth in the US economy. This means that the jobs and wages of most Americans depend in some measure on these workers. The specialized workers who enter on this visa fuel high-tech, high-growth sectors of the 21st century economy with skills like computer […]
Michael Clemens on H1-B visas
David Splinter on how much tax billionaires pay
30 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, entrepreneurship, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Here is his comment on the paper presented here: Summary: The U.S. tax system is highly progressive. Effective tax rates increase from 2% for the bottom quintile of income to 45% for the top hundredth of one percent. But rates may be lower among those with the highest wealth. This comment starts with the “top 400” […]
David Splinter on how much tax billionaires pay
The Ongoing Tragedy of Cuban Socialism
30 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, growth disasters, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, law and economics, Marxist economics, property rights, Public Choice Tags: Cuba
I’ve written several articles about the failure of Cuban socialism (2024, 2022, 2021, 2019, and 2016). My leftist friends almost always respond by claiming that U.S.-imposed trade restrictions are the primary reason for Cuba’s terrible economy. Since I like free trade, I certainly agree that trade restrictions are bad for growth (a lesson I wish […]
The Ongoing Tragedy of Cuban Socialism
The smallest gender pay gap in history
28 Aug 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, sex discrimination
Stats NZ reports: The gender pay gap was 5.2 percent in the June 2025 quarter, down from 8.2 percent in the June 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. “The June 2025 quarter gender pay gap of 5.2 percent is the lowest since the series began in 1998,” labour market spokesperson Abby […]
The smallest gender pay gap in history
The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth
04 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, politics - USA
In the long run, a rising standard of living is always and everywhere based on productivity growth. Thus, Austan Goolsbee notedin a keynote address at the “Summit” conference held at the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) in February (“Remarks on Productivity Growth and Monetary Policy,” February 28, 2025): As Goolsbee notes, annual productivity…
The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth
“An Evolving Economic Force,” A Conversation with Claudia Goldin
03 Jul 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, health and safety, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, sex discrimination
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