With nine months to go, how much can opinion polls tell us about the general election on November 7? Short answer: not much. Based solely on polls, no one could have predicted the past three elections this early in the year they were held. Trends shifted over the subsequent months, and events (especially COVID in 2020) […]
Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year
Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year
12 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, politics - New Zealand
The economic impacts of the 2008 NZ-China Free Trade Agreement
06 Feb 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: China, free trade, free trade agreements, tariffs
New Zealand was the first Western developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China, and it came into force in 2008. At the time, the New Zealand government estimated an increase in exports to China of between NZ$225 million and NZ$350 million (between US$180 million and US$280 million), and Ministry of Foreign Affairs…
The economic impacts of the 2008 NZ-China Free Trade Agreement
Tariffs and Inflation: Where Are We?
05 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, international economics, politics - USA Tags: free trade, tariffs
One of the predictions made by economists when President Trump announce the start of his freewheeling tariff policies in April 2025 was that the costs of the tariffs would ultimately be passed through to consumers, leading to overall higher inflation. Well, President Trump has been tossing out tariff threats, keeping some and withdrawing others. However,…
Tariffs and Inflation: Where Are We?
Exciting New Research on the Laffer Curve
30 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics Tags: taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
Unless you’re a policy wonk, I realize “exciting” may not be the right word to describe new developments in public-finance economics. For nerds, however, three economists at the Joint Committee on Taxation have some important new research on the Laffer Curve. The study, authored by Rachel Moore, Brandon Pecoraro, and David Splinter, concludes that the […]
Exciting New Research on the Laffer Curve
Ross McKitrick on Climate Models, Economic Impacts, and the DOE Report
26 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming
In this in-depth interview, economist and statistician Ross McKitrick discusses climate models, uncertainty, and whether the public climate debate is as scientifically balanced as often claimed. He also reflects on his role as a co-author of the recent U.S. Department of Energy report.
Ross McKitrick on Climate Models, Economic Impacts, and the DOE Report
Is there a British productivity comeback?
20 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, industrial organisation, macroeconomics Tags: British disease
Let us hope: Britain is seeing early signs of a long-awaited turnaround of its productivity woes, according to an alternative measure that suggests output per hour worked has risen at a pace not seen since before the financial crisis. The Resolution Foundation said a “blistering” productivity surge has been masked by problems with official statistics and pointed…
Is there a British productivity comeback?
AI, labor markets, and wages
18 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: creative destruction, pessimist bias
There is a new and optimistic paper by Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt: Artificial intelligence is changing which tasks workers do and how they do them. Predicting its labor market consequences requires understanding how technical change affects workers’ productivity across tasks, how workers adapt by changing occupations and acquiring new skills, and how wages adjust…
AI, labor markets, and wages
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
06 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, international economics, macroeconomics
Here is another piece for “contrarian Tuesday,” like it or not: We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has…
Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
31 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
US Growth: From Hours Worked or Productivity Gains?
30 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics
US economic growth can be divided into two parts: more hours worked, or more productivity per hour worked. In the past, the US labor force has been rising over time: the US labor force totaled 107 million people in 1980, 142 million in 2000, and was up to 171 million this year. However, after several…
US Growth: From Hours Worked or Productivity Gains?
A tale of two cities and rent control
23 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, econometerics, economics of regulation, law and economics, market efficiency, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, urban economics Tags: rent control
WSJ: What the Twin Cities Tell Us About Fixing the Housing CrisisThe Natural Experiment: In 2022, St. Paul enacted one of the strictest rent-control regimes in the country. The ordinance capped annual rent increases at 3% for most apartments, even empty ones. It didn’t adjust for inflation. … Across the Mississippi River, Minneapolis steered clear of rent…
A tale of two cities and rent control
Rent Control Creates Ghost Apartments
22 Dec 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of regulation, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, urban economics Tags: rent control
Adam Lehodey writing at City Journal: In New York City, making a profit on real estate has become increasingly difficult. Rent-stabilization laws built on the mantra that “housing is a human right,” a dysfunctional housing court, and myriad other interventions have driven thousands of units off the market, giving rise to the phenomenon of New York’s “ghost…
Rent Control Creates Ghost Apartments
Ask not what economics can do for sports; ask what sports can do for economics
20 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, history of economic thought, sports economics
Regular readers of this blog will know that I enjoy blogging about research that uses a sports setting to illustrate economic concepts (except when the research is terrible). Sport makes for an interesting setting for testing economic theories. The rules are known. The incentives are usually clear. The outcomes are usually unambiguous. Other real-world settings…
Ask not what economics can do for sports; ask what sports can do for economics
Is involuntary hospitalization working?
17 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of crime, health economics, law and economics Tags: economics of mental health
From Natalia Emanuel, Valentin Bolotnyy, and Pim Welle: The involuntary hospitalization of people experiencing a mental health crisis is a widespread practice, as common in the US as incarceration in state and federal prisons and 2.4 times as common as death from cancer. The intent of involuntary hospitalization is to prevent individuals from harming themselves…
Is involuntary hospitalization working?
“AI is everywhere but in the productivity statistics…”
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, economics of information, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, industrial organisation Tags: creative destruction
These people are saying it is there too. Though I am not quite sure what they (or anyone, for that matter) mean by AI: First, we argue that AI can already be seen in productivity statistics for the United States. The production and use effects of software and software R&D (alone) contributed (a) 50 percent…
“AI is everywhere but in the productivity statistics…”
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