We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that…
Is each American generation doing better?
Is each American generation doing better?
23 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history Tags: The Great Enrichment
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
22 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of climate change, economics of natural disasters, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, growth miracles
Part 1 of 2 on a damning new paper that takes on the top-down climate-economics literature — “The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship”
The Paper That Breaks Climate Economics
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
21 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of love and marriage, financial economics, growth miracles, labour economics, labour supply, population economics Tags: China
The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract: China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex…
The Chinese Current Account Imbalances
The Laffer Curve and Limits to Class Warfare Tax Policy, Part II
19 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment, taxation and labour supply
In Part I of this series back in 2014, we looked at some academic research from Canada showing that the revenue-maximizing tax rate on the richest taxpayers was 27.5 percent. A key insight from that research is that high-income taxpayers have considerable control over the timing, level, and composition of their income (just like in […]
The Laffer Curve and Limits to Class Warfare Tax Policy, Part II
The economic value of eliminating cancer
14 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, economic history, health economics Tags: life expectancies
This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial reduction in cancer mortality by incorporating the monetized value of…
The economic value of eliminating cancer
The Happiness Crash of 2020
13 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, technological progress
From the still-active Sam Peltzman: I document a sudden, sharp and historically unprecedented decline in self-reported happiness in the US population. It occurred during 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, and mainly persists through 2024. This happiness crash spread across nearly all typical demographics and geographies. The happiest groups pre-Covid (e.g., whites, high income,…
The Happiness Crash of 2020
The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up
06 Apr 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of regulation, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, Public Choice, unemployment
Two recent joint-papers Did California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? by Clemens, Edwards and Meer and The Effects of California’s $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices by Clemens, Edwards, Meer and Nguyen give what I think is a plausible and consistent account of California’s $20 fast food minimum wage. California’s $20 fast food…
The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up
Is financial economics still economics?
01 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, entrepreneurship, financial economics
That all sounded wonderful, and that core model and its offshoots dominated financial research for decades. The problem, however, was that it wasn’t true, or at least it wasn’t nearly as true as we had thought and hoped. When financial economists refined the models with more complete specifications, it turned out Beta didn’t predict stock…
Is financial economics still economics?
Bending the Curve of Health Care Costs (At Last?)
01 Apr 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, health economics Tags: health insurance
Health care spending had been a rising share of US GDP for decades, but since about 2010, the rate of increase seemed to level out. David M. Cutler and Lev Klarnet address “Has the United States bent the health care cost curve?” (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2026, readable overview of paper at link, including a…
Bending the Curve of Health Care Costs (At Last?)
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When recessions hit, the US Federal Reserve lowers its target interest rate–the “federal funds interest rate.” This interest rate applies to extremely safe borrowing: essentially, to overnight borrowing by large and safe financial institutions. The idea is that by altering this ultra-safe interest rate, other riskier interest rates will also be under pressure to adjust,…
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
New results on the economic costs of climate change
09 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economics of climate change, economics of natural disasters, economics of regulation, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
I promised you I would be tracking this issue, and so here is a major development. From the QJE by Adrien Bilal and Diego R Känzig:: This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1○C warming reduces world…
New results on the economic costs of climate change
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
02 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, international economics Tags: free trade, tariffs
We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply,…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs
“Tough on crime” is good for young men
26 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of crime, law and economics, politics - USA Tags: crime and punishment, criminal deterrence, law and order
Using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from 2010 to 2019 and a vote share regression discontinuity design, we find that narrow election of a Republican prosecutor reduces all-cause mortality rates among young men ages 20 to 29 by 6.6%. This decline is driven predominantly by reductions in firearm-related deaths, including a large reduction in firearm…
“Tough on crime” is good for young men
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part III
23 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, international economics, politics - USA, survivor principle
In Part I and Part II of this series, we looked at research showing that Americans are bearing the burden of Trump’s trade taxes. Those findings are a useful antidote to Trump’s silly and illiterate claim that foreign companies are swallowing the added cost. In both of those columns, however, I pointed out that I’m […]
The Economic Burden of Protectionism, Part III
“You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics”
17 Feb 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, history of economic thought, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply Tags: creative destruction
How many times have I heard versions of that claim? Erik Brynjolfsson picks up the telephone in the FT: While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP…
“You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics”
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