Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
08 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I’ve been rather tied up with other stuff for the last few weeks (including here) which is why I’ve not previously gotten round to writing about the first piece of monetary policy communications from our Reserve Bank this year. That was the “speech” by the Bank’s chief economist (and MPC) member Paul Conway given to […]
The Conway speech
03 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
By Frank Bosse and Nic Lewis A recent article by Roy Spencer was (strongly) criticized by Gavin Schmidt over at “Real Climate”. In the summary Gavin S. wrote: “Spencer’s shenanigans are designed to mislead readers about the likely sources of any discrepancies and to imply that climate modelers are uninterested in such comparisons – and…
Two model-observation comparisons confirm: CMIP6 models run too hot
01 Feb 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of education, economics of information, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: screening, signaling
Douglas Belkin, who has an admirably adversarial publication record on higher ed, spotlights my The Case Against Education in his latest piece in The Wall Street Journal:One result of this transactional attitude has been a sharp increase in cheating. College is one of the few products whose consumers try to get as little out of…
*The Case Against Education* Makes the WSJ
27 Jan 2024 1 Comment
in econometerics, economic history, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming Tags: climate alarmism
By Paul Homewood Roy Spencer has written a long, detailed critique of climate models: https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-models The full report is worth reading, but his key graph and conclusions are below:
Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models
26 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming
We need to know.
Andrew Montford: Does the Climate Change Committee understand the energy storage problem?
17 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, history of economic thought, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment
Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer, and Petr Sedláček, newly published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. I best liked this excerpt from p.2, noting that “DMP” refers to the Nobel-winning Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search model of unemployment: This congestion mechanism improves the business cycle performance of the DMP model considerably. It raises the volatility of labor market tightness tenfold, […]
A congestion theory of unemployment fluctuations
16 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: economics of fertility, family leave, gender wage gap, marriage and divorce, sex discrimination
The gender wage gap has been decreasing slowly and steadily over time. At least, that’s what I thought until I read this 2023 NBER Working Paper by Peter Blair (Harvard University) and Benjamin Posmanick (St. Bonaventure University). They present the following graph of the gender wage gap in the US (for White women, compared with White men,…
Family leave and the gender wage gap
15 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, econometerics, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking, sports economics, urban economics
I’m a sports fan, which in this case may represent a conflict of interest, because it means I’m conflicted about public subsidies going to sports stadiums. The economic evidence on this point is pretty clear: such subsidies can transfer how people spend their entertainment dollars from one area of a city to another, but the net…
Professional Sports and the Lack of Local Economic Payoffs
04 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history
Back in 1790, when Congress was arguing about process for the first Census, one argument was that the Census should limit itself to counting heads, for purposes of determining how many representatives each state should receive. But James Madison argued that it was important to seize the opportunity of the Census to gather additional information,…
When Fewer People Answer Surveys, What Should Government Statisticians Do?
01 Jan 2024 Leave a comment
in econometerics, history of economic thought Tags: conjecture and refutation, philosophy of science
Written by me, here is a passage from GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of All Time, and Why Should We Care? A System of Logic covers many different topics, but for our purposes the most important discussion is Mill’s treatment “Of the Four Methods of Experimental Inquiry,” sometimes called “Mill’s Methods” and indeed receiving […]
John Stuart Mill on empirical economics and causal inference
25 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, development economics, econometerics, experimental economics, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought
David A. Price of the Richmond Fed carries out an interview titled “Angus Deaton: On deaths of despair, randomized controlled trials, and winning the Nobel Prize” (Econ Focus: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Fourth Quarter 2023, pp. 18-22). Here are a few of Deaton’s comments that caught my eye: On his shift from “cosmopolitan prioritarianism” to…
Interview with Angus Deaton: Critiques of Cosmopolitan Prioritarianism and Randomized Control Trials
20 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, development economics, econometerics, economic history, energy economics, environmental economics, global warming, growth disasters, growth miracles Tags: climate alarmism
The benefits of not meeting Paris Accord emissions-reduction targets outweigh the costs associated even with worst-case-scenario global warming throughout the 21st century.
From Now To 2100 Emission Reduction Policy Costs Greatly Exceed Any Net Benefit from Averted Warming
17 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, income redistribution, labour economics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: top 1%
A number of you have asked me what I think of their response. The first thing I noticed is that Auten and Splinter make several major criticisms of PSZ, and yet PSZ respond to only one of them. On the others they are mysteriously silent. The second thing I noticed is that PSZ have been […]
The Piketty-Saez-Zucman response to Auten and Splinter
13 Dec 2023 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, minimum wage, occupational choice Tags: gender wage gap, sex discrimination
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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