By David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence H. Summers. From NPR’s Planet Money. Summers was Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001, director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 and president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006.”Obviously, there is a big fear right now that artificial intelligence will kill…
Technological Disruption in the Labor Market
Technological Disruption in the Labor Market
02 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in econometerics, economic history, human capital, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, occupational choice, poverty and inequality, unemployment Tags: creative destruction
When did sustained economic growth begin?
31 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, history of economic thought, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: The Great Enrichment
The subtitle is New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870, and the authors are Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson. Abstract: We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these […]
When did sustained economic growth begin?
The 1920s immigration restrictions
29 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA Tags: economics of immigration, racial discrimination
The 1920s immigration restrictions in the US did not affect manufacturing wages. The US immigration restrictions of the 1920s lowered the occupational standings of whites and incumbent immigrants. US counties with more immigrants excluded by the quotas of the 1920s saw increased in-migration. During the Great Black Migration of the US, black southerners moved to […]
The 1920s immigration restrictions
A Wartime Natural Experiment About Copyright
26 Jan 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, comparative institutional analysis, defence economics, econometerics, economic history, economics of education, economics of information, economics of media and culture, economics of regulation, industrial organisation, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, war and peace Tags: patents and copyrights, World War II
One of the hardest questions in copyright policy is: “What would have happened otherwise?” When Disney lobbies for longer copyright terms or academic publishers defend high subscription fees, we struggle to evaluate their claims because we can’t observe the counterfactual. What would happen to creativity and innovation if we shortened copyright terms or lowered prices? […]
A Wartime Natural Experiment About Copyright
The impact of Fox News on American democracy
20 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, industrial organisation, politics - USA Tags: 2008 presidential election, 2012 presidential election, 2016 US presidential election, 2020 presidential election, 2024 presidential election, media bias
In yesterday’s post, I noted a number of opportunities for research on the economics of social media. At least one of those opportunities intersected with the impact of traditional media. So, I was interested to read this new article by Elliott Ash, Sergio Galletta, Matteo Pinna (all ETH Zurich), and Christopher Warshaw (George Washington University), published…
The impact of Fox News on American democracy
Bad leaders solicit bad advice
16 Jan 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, politics - New Zealand, poverty and inequality, unemployment, welfare reform Tags: child poverty, family poverty
When Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister, she was determined to increase income for children in welfare-dependent families – her magic bullet for solving child poverty. The Welfare Expert Advisory Group, led by Cindy Kiro, was convened to make the desired recommendations. A number of evidence briefs were provided to the group, one concerned the “likely…
Bad leaders solicit bad advice
Evolving Returns to Personality
12 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, health economics, human capital, labour supply, occupational choice
Weanalyze trends in labor-market returns to psychological traits using data from half a million Finnish men from 2001 to 2015. Cognitive skills’ value declined, while noncognitive skills’ value increased. Our novel findings show that extraversion drives this rise, while conscientiousness remains stable. Extraversion’s rising returns are most pronounced for lower earners and those on the […]
Evolving Returns to Personality
Nordhaus on the Perils of Long-Term Forecasting
01 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic history Tags: The Great Enrichment
When people try to think about the long-term future, by which I mean here looking a half-century or a century ahead, they often suffer a lack of imagination. As a common example, they take today’s problems and just multiply them by a factor of ten. Or they assume that improved central planning, in one form…
Nordhaus on the Perils of Long-Term Forecasting
The end of oil?
05 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economics of climate change, energy economics, environmental economics, environmentalism, global warming, law and economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, rentseeking, resource economics Tags: peak oil
It is now plausible to envision scenarios in which global demand for crude oil falls to essentially zero by the end of this century, driven by improvements in clean energy technologies, adoption of stringent climate policies, or both. This paper asks what such a demand decline, when anticipated, might mean for global oil supply. One […]
The end of oil?
The Consequences of Limiting the Tax Deductibility of R&D
03 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
We study the tax payment and innovation consequences of limiting the tax deductibility of research and development (“R&D”) expenditures. Beginning in 2022, U.S. companies are required to capitalize and amortize R&D rather than immediately deduct these expenditures. We utilize variation in U.S. firms’ fiscal year ends to test the effects of the R&D tax change […]
The Consequences of Limiting the Tax Deductibility of R&D
Unauthorized Immigration and Local Government Finances
30 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, human capital, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, politics - USA, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, public economics Tags: economics of immigration
This paper examines how unauthorized immigration affects the fiscal health of local governments in the United States. Using detailed data on unauthorized immigrants’ countries of origin and arrival dates from the Syracuse TRAC database, we isolate immigration flows driven by social, economic, and political conditions in source countries. We predict local immigration patterns using a […]
Unauthorized Immigration and Local Government Finances
Local Labor Market Effects of Amazon
18 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, labour economics, labour supply, urban economics
Does the entry of a large employer to a local labor market increase welfare for residents? To answer this question, I analyze the local effects of the dramatic expansion of Amazon’s fulfillment center (FC) network from 2010 onward. I exploit the staggered roll-out of FCs across large U.S. metros in a difference-in-difference framework. I find […]
Local Labor Market Effects of Amazon
Who Matters More in a Move: You or Your Spouse?
04 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, discrimination, econometerics, economics of love and marriage, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, occupational choice, poverty and inequality Tags: gender wage gap, marriage and divorce, sex discrimination
New research finds couples are more likely to move for a job when it benefits the man, even when the woman’s career stands to benefit more by movingBy Dalvin Brown of The WSJ. Excerpts:”Couples are moving again for better job opportunities. They are more likely to make those moves when the husband’s earnings stand to…
Who Matters More in a Move: You or Your Spouse?
The National Childcare Program During World War II
02 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, defence economics, discrimination, econometerics, economic history, gender, human capital, labour economics, labour supply, war and peace Tags: World War II
The United States has has a nationwide childcare program at one time in its history: a temporary program during World War II. Tim Sablik of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond tells the story and summarizes some economic research on the topic in “When Uncle Sam Watched Rosie’s Kids: To support women working on the…
The National Childcare Program During World War II
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Utopia, you are standing in it! 
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