Desperately seeking Thatchernomics & Reaganomics – tax revenue as a % of GDP in the USA and UK

If a Martian landed on earth and was asked at Immigration Control to pick when Reagan and Thatcher were in office based on tax policies, our Martian applicant for a visitors’ visa would get it right for the UK. Taxes as a percentage of GDP increased from 31% to 37% under the 1970s Wilson and Callaghan administrations which led to the sick man of Europe. Under Thatchernomics, tax revenue as a percentage of British GDP fell from 37% to 31% by the time Mrs Thatcher had left office.

Data extracted on 18 Oct 2015 02:10 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Taxes as percentage of GDP actually increased in the Reagan years so Martians will not be able to identify Reaganomics based on taxes as a percentage of GDP. The Democratic Party controlled at least the House of Representatives for the entire time of the Reagan administration so any tax agenda would have been tempered. There were large cuts in marginal tax rates funded by tax base expansion. That’s the traditional meaning of tax reform. There is no actual reduction in taxes as percentage of GDP. Marginal tax rates are funded by increases in tax base or increases in indirect taxes.

As for Tony Blair as a continuation of Thatchernomics, tax revenues as a percentage of GDP stopped increasing under his watch after increasing again under John Major.

Taxation as a % of GDP in Australia and NZ and New Zealand’s Lost Decades

Revenue is a percentage of GDP has always been higher in New Zealand as compared to Australia for as far back as data is available. Tax revenue grew by a third as a percentage of GDP between 1965 and 1989 in New Zealand with a sharp spike from 1984 onwards. The growth in tax revenues as percentage of Australian GDP was smoother rather than spikes such as in the mid-1980s in New Zealand.

Data extracted on 18 Oct 2015 02:10 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat.

Interestingly, this faster growth in the New Zealand tax revenues as a percentage of GDP coincided with the two lost decades of New Zealand growth between 1974 and 1992. Furthermore, the chart below shows that an emerging recovery in labour productivity in the early 1980s stalled when tax revenues started growing again as a percentage of New Zealand GDP.

Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

Between 1974 and 1992, New Zealand lost 34% and productivity against trend of 1.9%. In the chart below, a flat line is growth at a rate equal to the trend rate of growth for the USA in the 20th century which is 1.9%. A falling line indicates growth at less than 1.9% for the year. A rising line means growth in excess of 1.9% for the year. The chart below confirms what the chart above says. Productivity stopped falling in the early 1980s then started falling rapidly at the same time that tax revenues spiked as percentage of GDP in the early 1980s.

Source: Computed from OECD StatExtract and The Conference Board. 2015. The Conference Board Total Economy Database™, May 2015, http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

in the above chart, Australia had pretty steady growth since about 1970. There is a productivity slowdown in the 1970s and above-average growth as the economy recovered from the Keating recession in the early 1990s. The so-called mining boom is hardly noticeable in Australia’s trend growth rate.

The Great Escape in China

@AndrewLittleMP @jamespeshaw @BillEnglishMP Real housing prices New Zealand, Australia & USA: 1975 January quarter – 2015 June quarter

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Source and notes: International House Price Database – Dallas Fed June 2015; nominal housing prices for each country is deflated by the personal consumption deflator for that country.

New Zealand housing prices were pretty stable until the passage of the Resource Management Act in 1993. After that, prices took off New Zealand and didn’t slow that much for the recession subsequent to the Global Financial Crisis.

American prices just had a bubble because of loose monetary policy by the Fed and loose lending criteria by banks at the behest of regulators. Real housing prices in the USA started to rise again last year after a dramatic fall.

Australian prices were rising steadily until about 2000 but then took off with a strong economy and the usual restrictions on land supply by local governments at the behest of the existing homeowners.

Creative destruction in newspapers

Iran is the only Middle Eastern country never conquered by a European power—but it came close

Creative destruction in Twitter

It certainly is expensive in Norway

Friends holidayed in Norway recently and paid $10 for a cappuccino. For a welfare state greatly admired by our friends on the Left, the fact that food is very expensive is a big strike against Norway as a workers’ paradise.

Source: Interactive currency-comparison tool: The Big Mac index | The Economist.

@BernieSanders are the rich getting richer & poor getting poorer or are just men getting their comeuppance?

@janlogie The dramatic closing of the gender pay gap at the 10th percentile in the US, UK, Australia and NZ since 1970 but not at the 90th percentile!

It seems that the top 10% of men are so busy oppressing the top 10% of women that they forgot to keep up the violence inherent in the capitalist system against the bottom 10% of women. The gender pay gap at the bottom of the economic strata closed quite dramatically and consistently since 1970 or as far back as data was available in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and USA. Much of the closing of the gender pay gap for the low-paid was under the scourge of Reagan, Thatcher, Hawke and Keating and Rogernomics.

Source and Notes: OECD Employment Database. The gender gap plotted below is unadjusted. It is calculated as the difference between the 10th percentile earnings of men and the 10th percentile earnings of women relative to the 10th percentile earnings of men. Estimates of earnings used in the calculations refer to gross earnings of full-time wage and salary workers. However, this definition may slightly vary from one country to another.

By comparison to this dramatic liberation of women from the gender pay gap at the bottom, the gender pay gap for full-time employees has not really tapered down that much at the top of the income distribution and has been pretty flat for coming on 20 years. It seems the class war is over and has been won by women at the bottom but not at the top?

Rather than up the workers, the battle cry of the Posh Trots is up the managers, liberate them from insidious pay inequities imposed upon them by a vast sexist conspiracy of male managers.

Source and Notes: OECD Employment Database. The gender gap plotted below is unadjusted. It is calculated as the difference between the 10th percentile earnings of men and the 10th percentile earnings of women relative to the 10th percentile earnings of men. Estimates of earnings used in the calculations refer to gross earnings of full-time wage and salary workers. However, this definition may slightly vary from one country to another.

This failure to close the gender pay gap at the top requires more investigation. The available of reliable contraceptives in the late 1960s led to an explosion of investment by women in long duration professional education and in careers where absences because of motherhood in their 20s and 30s was penalised in terms of human capital depreciation and promotional opportunities.

The reason for the endurance of the gender pay gap at the top of the income distribution is compensating differentials. Women at the top were able to have it all.

Professional women could invest in a career and a family and mix-and-match according to their own preferences for career and family and timing of births rather than the preferences of others who looked upon them as some sort of pathfinder for their gender. It is at the top of the income distribution where short absences from the workplace can has very large consequences for wages and promotion.

The economics of the Curly effect

Why is #Italy’s productivity so much weaker

Margaret Thatcher was born #OnThisDay in 1925.

Why are we still calling them phones?

Mises on prosperity and inequality

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