Essay questions for the Royal Economic Society Economics Essay Competition for 2015

50% more R&D since the 60s, but still no growth dividend?

Spending on intellectual property products has risen in the USA from 1% in 1950 to 5% now. Public R&D spending in the USA has been pretty static for 60 years. Intellectual property products in the chart below includes traditional research and development, spending on computer software, and spending on entertainment such as movies, TV shows, books, and music. Spending on software and entertainment was only recently measured in the US national accounts. This inclusion of intangible capital investments will radically change the story of economic growth and the business cycle in the 20th century.

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Source: Chad Jones (2015).

The growth rate in the USA hasn’t changed much despite this massive increase in intellectual property property product production. Is innovation getting harder? R&D is supposed to boost the growth rate, if you are to believe politicians bearing subsidies for it wherever they find it.

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Source: Chad Jones (2015).

Ben Jones in The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man: Is Innovation Getting Harder? found that as knowledge accumulates as technology advances, successive generations of innovators may face an increasing educational burden. Innovators can compensate through lengthening their time in education and narrowing expertise, but these responses come at the cost of reducing individual innovative capacities. This has implications for the organization of innovative activity – a greater reliance on teamwork – and has negative implications for economic growth.

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This longer period of education and initial study is not compensated by inventors innovating for longer spans of their lifestyle. This rising burden of knowledge is cutting into their best years of their lives. Jones found a broad and dramatic declines in early life-cycle productivity among great minds and ordinary inventors, and a close relationship  of these trends with increased training duration.

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Jones found that the age at first invention, specialisation, and teamwork increased over time in a large micro-data set of inventors. Upward trends in academic collaboration and lengthening doctorates can also be explained in his framework of innovation getting harder because of a rising burden of knowledge. Co-authorship in academic literature has increased, including physics, biology, chemistry, mathematics, psychology, and economics. This measure of teamwork has increased 17% per decade.

Using data on Nobel Prize winners, Jones found that the mean age at which the innovations are produced to win the Prize has increased by 6 years over the 20th Century.

  • Before 1901, two-thirds of the Nobel laureates did their prize-winning work before the age of 40 and 20 per cent did it before age of 30.
  • By 2000, however, great achievements seldom occurred before the age of 40.

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It’s now taking longer for scientists to get their basic training and start their careers. There is simply more to learn because knowledge in all fields has grown by quantum leaps in the past century. Nobels are being handed out for different types of work than a century ago.

  • There has been a trend away from awarding prizes for abstract, theoretical ideas.
  • Now more honours are being bestowed on people who have made discoveries through painstaking lab work and experimentation – which takes a lot of time to do.

Jones’ theory provides an explanation for why productivity growth rates did not accelerate through the 20th century despite an enormous expansion in collective research effort and levels of education and many more graduates. Innovation is getting harder?

Friedman’s 2nd Law –the government cannot give anything away: free public schools version

Via via Stephen Gibbons Big ideas: valuing schooling through house prices.

Teachers are pretty well paid in New Zealand

Becoming president is part of the college premium

There are big differences in educational attainment across Europe

New Zealand spends a lot in education for a pretty average education premium in return

Finishing year 10 of high school was a very much a mid-20th century phenomenon

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Source: Average Years of Education | Clio Infra.

Difference in PISA scores of 15-year-old female and male students on reading literacy: 2012

via nces.ed.gov

Trends in bachelor degrees conferred on women since 1970

A lot of women did information science in the 70s, close to 40% of all information science majors, then women moved away to invest in other majors. It would be laughable to suggest that information science was more welcoming to women in the 1970s but not now. Clearly, a third set of factors is at play unrelated to hostile working environments. Similarly, a large number of women did maths and statistics then that trend petered out in the 1980s.

13% of American biology teachers should be fired

Charles Murray explains the Let No Child Be Left Behind Act

The United States Congress, acting with large bipartisan majorities, at the urging of the President, enacted as the law of the land that all children are to be above average.  - Charles Murray

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The rising educational attainment of the poor

Has this gone out of style since I was at university, which was much later?

Check out the hairstyles and fashion.

Whitlam’s curse – How higher education drives inequality among the bottom 99%

Gough Whitlam abolished tuition fees at Australian universities in 1972. The idea was to reduce inequality. He entrenched it instead, and gave a flying start to those of already above-average talents.

David Autor in a recent paper has illustrated how the gap between the highly educated and the less educated is growing at a far faster rate than the gap between the top 1% in the bottom 99% in the USA. David Autor argues that

a single minded focus on the top 1% can be counterproductive given that the changes to the other 99% have been more economically significant.

 

  1. since the early 1980s, the earnings gap between workers with a high school degree and those with a college education has become four times greater than the shift in income during the same period to the very top from the 99%.
  2. Between 1979 and 2012, the gap in median annual earnings between households of high-school educated workers and households with college-educated ones expanded from $30,298 to $58,249, or by roughly $28,000.
  3. If the incomes of the bottom 99% are grown at the same pace as the top 1% their incomes would have increased by $7000 per household.

Autor argues that the growth of skill differentials among the other 99% is more consequential than the rise of the 1% for the welfare of most citizens.

via How Education Drives Inequality Among the 99% – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

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