Paul Krugman on the importance of not taking cheap shots in public policy discussions

HT: Bonnie Kavoussi’s Blog: Paul Krugman on Writing.

The North–South theory of product life cycles

Forecasts of the offshoring of service jobs, as an example, can be constituted into a theory of North-South product cycles. The North-South theory of the life cycle of products starts with their research and development and refinement by entrepreneurs in the advanced countries (the North) with some exporting (Grossman and Helpmann 1991a, 1991b). These innovations require resources to be invested with uncertain prospects of success. Entrepreneurs in the North compete to discover new technology-intensive products using the ample supply of R&D workers and human capital-rich workers in the industrialised countries (Grossman and Helpmann 1991a, 1991b).

As a new product matures and its production becomes more standardised, the bulk of its production can migrate to the less developed countries (the South) to take advantage of lower production costs, and these countries will become net exporters. In the South, entrepreneurs focus more on imitation. They invest resources in importing and learning the production processes developed and proven to be a success in the North (Grossman and Helpmann 1991a, 1991b).

The shifting of production of standardised products to lower-wage foreign locations will frequently be within the originating company via a foreign affiliate, because of uncertainties about property rights and contract enforcement institutions in the host countries, and only later to independent foreign firms (Antràs 2005). Within corporate hierarchies, the high-skilled managers in the developed countries will specialise in problem-solving and non-routine tasks. They will interact with middle managers and production workers in developing countries who perform the routine tasks (Antràs et al. 2006, 2008).

Contracts are typically incomplete either because they are difficult to write and/or because the court cannot enforce them. The World Trade Organization (2005, 2008) concluded that, for example, the location of offshored services depends on:

  • labour costs,
  • trade costs,
  • the quality of institutions, particularly the legal framework,
  • the tax and investment regime,
  • the quality of infrastructure, particularly telecommunications, and
  • skills, particularly language and computer skills.

Risks in contract negotiation and enforcement will influence which types of production is outsourced. Roughly one-third of world trade is infra-firm, and this intra-firm trade is concentrated in the capital-intensive industries because of the costs and risks of investing in contracting with arm’s-length suppliers (Antràs 2003). Considerations about R&D incentives, the availability of human capital and the quality of contract enforcement institutions weigh heavily on the development of new products and their initial and later locations of different stages of production.

image

Products are initially developed in the highly industrialised countries because their sophisticated legal systems allow contracts to be enforced. Even then, in industrialised countries, the difficulties of writing and enforcing complicated contracts over the quality of new products early in the product life cycle encourages firms to make those products internally within the firm. Early in the product life cycle, if sub-contractors were used for key imports,  there would have to be continual renegotiation of contracts contracts to incorporate new innovations and learning by doing. As Antras says:

Global production networks necessarily entail intensive contracting between parties located in different countries and thus subject to distinct legal systems0

As the new product standardises, and product quality in consequence becomes easier to measure and contract over, initially the innovating firm will sub-contract within the industrialised country but in time will import from developing countries. In the first instance, these imports may be from affiliates established in the developing country to ensure greater control of product quality through direct ownership of the factory. As Antras says:

Firms contemplating doing business in a country with weak contracting institutions might decide to do so within firm boundaries to have more control.

The size and shape of the firm is a direct response to mitigate the costs of contracting over quality that is hard to measure  and which is constantly changing early in the product cycle. By assigning ownership rights to the party undertaking the more important investment in quality early in the product life cycle, entrepreneurs  and innovators can minimise the losses caused by lack of enforceable contracts over quality when quality is changing rapidly as the firm moves through the product life cycle.

image

Boeing blamed the delays on the delivery of the Dreamliner on an unwillingness of sub-contractors to stand by their contractual obligations. In response, Boeing acquired some of the key sub-contractors to ensure that they delivered as promised. This is a classic operation of the theory of the firm  where the entrepreneur brings within the firm what is too expensive to transact on the market because of difficulties in measuring quality and defining and enforcing property rights over what has been contracted.

Creative destruction in cell phone battery gripes

A few months ago, my complaint about my cell phone battery was it ran out after a couple of hours use.

Now my complaint about my new HTC 510 is the battery lasts so long that it takes quite some time to recharge it. My current and previous phones were HTC. The new phone costs the same $299 as I paid for the previous HTC, but is about three times as good as the old one which I bought about 18 months ago.

When researching the purchase of my new phone, I read a few reviews where I discovered they are written by complete snobs who own the latest iPhone and looked down on anything cheaper.

Landlines are certainly on the way out

Digital devices are taking over the day

What if you could replace performance evaluations with four simple questions?

Dilbert  performance reviews

at the end of every project, or once a quarter if employees have long-term assignments, managers would answer four simple questions — and only four. The first two are answered on a five-point scale, from "strongly agree" to "strongly disagree;" the second two have yes or no options:

1. Given what I know of this person’s performance, and if it were my money, I would award this person the highest possible compensation increase and bonus.

2. Given what I know of this person’s performance, I would always want him or her on my team.

3. This person is at risk for low performance.

4. This person is ready for promotion today.

dilbert performance reviews more

via What if you could replace performance evaluations with four simple questions? – The Washington Post.

Creative destruction defined

What are the biggest workplace time wasters?

workplace. Time wasters in the graphic

via Biggest Work Place Time Wasters – Infographic City.

Do Paul Samuelson’s criticisms of behavioural economics make him a double secret Austrian economist?

Paul Samuelson on behavioural economics

via Samuelson vs. Friedman, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty and An Interview With Paul Samuelson, Part One — The Atlantic.

Signs of poor management – Not listening and not making people feel valued

Image

NZ taxpayers made a $20 million profit on its $30 billion state owned enterprises portfolio!

KiwiRail is such a dog that the Treasury reports on the rate of return to the taxpayer on the state owned enterprises portfolio by excluding KiwiRail from its calculations of rates of return.

The Treasury doesn’t do similar adjustments for state owned enterprises that are performing unusually well, so total shareholder return figures should be reported without this KiwiRail exception. If you buy a dog, you should own up to the fleas it spreads to the rest of your portfolio.

Trying to pretend that KiwiRail is just not there, or survives on the largess of someone other than the one and only New Zealand taxpayer, does no one any favours. This KiwiRail exception will have to apply for at least 10 years to the annual commercial portfolio report of the Treasury. I want to know the total shareholder return, including KiwiRail every year without exception or special pleading.

That total shareholder return of -8.2% in 2012 is worthy of comment too:

The portfolio generated a net loss after tax of $1.8 billion driven by a restructuring of KiwiRail’s balance sheet and reductions in bottom line results for Meridian and Solid Energy, affected by hydrology and coal market deterioration respectively.

It’s time for the government to wash its hands of Solid Energy and let it go bankrupt – updated

Government owned mining company Solid Energy lost $182 million last year. It is already received nearly $200 million in corporate welfare in bailouts from the New Zealand taxpayer. It’s time to call a halt.

The Christchurch-based coalminer is negotiating with banks in a bid to reduce its $320 million debt. In 2013, its annual revenue dropped by a third to $631 million.

Solid Energy invested heavily on a strategy that energy prices were going to go up and up. That investment strategy was against the market sentiment of that time, much less afterwards and the collapse of oil prices.

While Prime Minister John Key said on March 2 that it was not the Government’s preferred option to put more taxpayer cash into Solid Energy, Minister of Finance Bill English flatly ruled out cash, loans or guarantees. I hope Bill English wins that political struggle at the Cabinet table for the sake of the long-suffering New Zealand taxpayer.

What is worse, the government has indemnified the directors of Solid Energy against unspecified liabilities thus giving them an open-ended cheque-book, from what I can see, to trade while insolvent:

State Owned Enterprises Minister Todd McClay confirmed last month that the Crown has offered an indemnity to the board of Solid Energy last year, but would not comment on what it was.

Asked if directors had raised concerns with him that they might be trading while insolvent, English said: “Any director of a company like this has that question uppermost in their mind. They need to be sure all the time that they’re not trading while insolvent.”

Directors’ duties regarding trading while insolvent is the last line of defence against financial irresponsibility. There are both civil liability and criminal penalties for trading while insolvent under company law.

Solid Energy has already been a black hole for nearly $200 million in taxpayers’ money as well as considerable bank write-offs of loans.

The company appeared before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee of Parliament this morning. It told MPs the company was solvent and marginally cash positive, but looking at another significant loss this year.

It should be a matter of policy that the government, any government, should not indemnify directors of any company, be they government owned or not, for breaches of directors’ duties. It’s a matter of the rule of law and of governments not privileging itself in the marketplace at the expense of the taxpayer.

What is the point of having a State Owned Enterprises Act and setting up these businesses as companies with a duty to be as successful as a company not owned by the government if they don’t have to obey the most fundamental safeguards in company law when push comes to shove?

If these indemnities have indeed been issued by the government for breaches of directors’ duties regarding insolvency, and it seems as though they have been, what is the Crown liability to creditors if Solid Energy is indeed trading while insolvent? These indemnities may allow the creditors to pierce the corporate veil and sue the New Zealand government.

In the revenge of directors duties, the directors of banks and any other creditor will have a director’s duty to sue the New Zealand government for all it can get as a result of these indemnities.

At a minimum, the New Zealand government will have to settle out of court or go all the way to the Supreme Court because hundreds of millions of dollars are involved from the bank write-offs, past and present.

Naturally, the ideological blinkers of the opposition party in New Zealand prevents it from saying the obvious, which is calling for the Solid Energy to be put in receivership. The Labour Party spokesman on state owned enterprise attacked the stewardship of the Minister of Finance as a shareholding Minister, but had nothing to say in terms of solutions, including putting the company into receivership.

The Green Party did a little bit better in 2013 when its spokesman talked about a need for a transition to sustainable jobs – the Green party code for layoffs:

“The National Government need to take responsibility for their mismanagement of Solid Energy and cut their losses,” said Mr Hughes.

“The banks that made risky loans to Solid Energy need to bear the cost of their mistakes”. “Coal is not going to be the fuel of our future if we are to stabilise our climate”.

“New Zealanders and Solid Energy workers need a just transition into more sustainable jobs – jobs that don’t fry the planet.”

“The longer this Government effectively denies climate change, the more taxpayer money will go to subsidising coal and its foreign backers.”

Things are getting desperate when the Greens find a corporate welfare so appalling that they actually oppose it, if only because of support for lower carbon emissions. That is one green hypocrisy too many if it supported a bailout of a coal miner.

Winston’s big port up North won’t have any business

In the first shot in the pork-barrelling for a by-election, veteran New Zealand populist Winston Peters wants to stop the expansion of the Port of Auckland and move the extra shipping traffic up north to the Port of Whangarei:

And we will upgrade the Auckland to Northland railway line and build the rail link to your port

The Port of Whangarei is about two hours north by car from Auckland. Auckland is a global city of approaching 2 million. Whangarei is the only city up North, with a population of 50,000.

45% of the import traffic to the Port of Auckland is cars. Around 90% of light vehicle imports in New Zealand come through the Port of Auckland. The rest may go through Littleton.

Jellicoe and Freyberg wharves are located between the two container terminals.

Bledisloe multipurpose Wharf

Striving to move some of this light vehicle imports from the Port of Auckland up north to the Port of Whangarei where they be unloaded from a ship onto trains for a short train ride to Auckland, unloaded again onto trucks all seems unnecessary expense.

Photo: Port of Whangarei.

Auckland appears to have spare container capacity up until at least 2035, so this port up North will simply not have much to do in terms of extra container traffic because it will have to compete on the basis of cost and proximity to markets.

Photo: The Marsden Point Oil Refinery on the opposite shore of Whangarei Harbour.

The traffic that is coming under pressure regarding capacity of the Port of Auckland is multi-cargo traffic such as building materials, vegetables, wheat, vehicles and other goods. The situation is further aggravated by the rapid increase in the number and increased size of cruise ships.

As a good part of the market for the multi cargo traffic is in Auckland, landing them away from their main market just makes no sense and will not happen unless the port of Auckland is prohibited by law from expanding and ships are not allowed to divert to ports such as Wellington and Christchurch.

The number of cruise ships visiting Auckland in the last 10 years to about 90 and is expected to reach one 20 by 2020 and 150 by 2030. That traffic cannot be diverted up north to the Port of Whangarei.

Any export traffic that would be viable to send through the Port of Whangarei up north will already be going through it. Export competitiveness is highly sensitive to costs as exporters must simply take the going price in the international market.

This question should be asked more often about the regulation of purported natural monopolies

Image

Why delicious Indian food is surprisingly unpopular in the U.S.

No need to rage against the gaucheness of Americans who, in fact, have embraced many foods:

The cuisine is among the most labor intensive in the world. And yet Americans are unwilling to pay beyond a certain, and decidedly low, price point.

Via Why delicious Indian food is surprisingly unpopular in the U.S. – The Washington Post.

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