I did not know Yahoo was still in business.
How profitable are the tech giants?
03 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in fisheries economics, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: Apple, creative destruction, Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter
The One Lesson of Business
02 Apr 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, managerial economics, survivor principle
Financial market wrongdoing: Fines vs reputational sanctions
30 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economics of crime, economics of education, entrepreneurship, financial economics, industrial organisation, law and economics, survivor principle Tags: crime and punishment, signalling
Balance for ballot propositions
28 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economics, economics of media and culture, industrial organisation, Public Choice, survivor principle Tags: media bias
Why do companies pay dividends?
27 Mar 2016 1 Comment
in applied price theory, financial economics, industrial organisation, managerial economics, organisational economics, survivor principle Tags: agency costs, agent principal problem, asymmetric information, dividends, entrepreneurial alertness, managerial slack
It is obvious that businesses find dividends sensible to pay because otherwise they will face disquiet from investors. Managers believe that higher dividends mean higher share prices.
Economists finds dividends to be a mysterious (Easterbrook 1984). Miller and Modigliani (1958) declared dividends to be irrelevant because investors can homebrew their own dividends by selling shares or borrowing against their share portfolios.
Modigliani (1980, p. xiii) explains the Miller and Modigliani Theorem as follows:
… with well-functioning markets (and neutral taxes) and rational investors, who can ‘undo’ the corporate financial structure by holding positive or negative amounts of debt, the market value of the firm – debt plus equity – depends only on the income stream generated by its assets.
It follows, in particular, that the value of the firm should not be affected by the share of debt in its financial structure or by what will be done with the returns – paid out as dividends or reinvested (profitably).
Warren Buffett has never paid a dividend. He only agreed to a stock split. Shareholders pressed him to do so. They wanted to bequeath their shares to children without having to sell them.
What is even more mysterious is a simultaneous existence of dividends and the raising of new capital, either through the share market or from borrowing (Easterbrook 1984).
Dividends are costly and ubiquitous so something causes them. Even if investors were irrational, dividends would go away if there cost exceeds their benefits.
If dividends were a bad idea, firms that pay few dividends would prosper relative to others; investors who figure out the truth would also prosper relative to others and before long dividends will be features of failing firms (Easterbrook 1984).
Dividends exist because they influence the firms financing policies. Dividends dissipate free cash and thereby induce the firm to float new shares and borrow. If the firm is constantly in the market for new capital, it must constantly prove the value of the investment to the market (Easterbrook 1984).
The interests and incentives of managers and shareholders frequently conflict over the optimal size of the firm and paying free cash flows as dividends. Jensen (1986) defines free cash flow as follows:
Free cash flow is cash flow in excess of that required to fund all of a firm’s projects that have positive net present values when discounted at the relevant cost of capital. Such free cash flow must be paid out to shareholders if the firm is to be efficient and to maximize value for shareholders (Jensen 1986, p. 323).
The problem is how to motivate managers to pay out this cash rather than invested at below the cost of the capital. By issuing debt, managers bind themselves to pay out future cash flows in a way that a future dividend policy cannot.
Creditors can take the firm into bankruptcy court if they do not repay. Investors and bankers play an important role in monitoring the firm and its proposed projects.
The control function of debt is more important in organisations with large cash flows but low growth prospects. Investors in the share market are alert to the control function of debt. Most leverage increasing transactions result in positive increases in share prices while most transactions that reduce leverage results in share price falls (Jensen 1986).
There is nothing new about using high debt leverage ratios to create greater business value through limiting managerial discretion in focusing entrepreneurial attention on the bottom line.
One of the driving forces behind management leverage buyouts in the 1980s was that they borrowed to take over a company to run it better. The high levels of debt in management buyouts made sure that there was no incentives to tolerate waste or inefficiency or underperforming divisions or product lines of the firm. Any slack with the organisation would very quickly be punished perhaps in bankruptcy. Heavy debt ratios focused the attention of managers and boards of directors.
New debt puts managers under additional scrutiny of a range of bankers and the share market, which is the principal reason for keeping firms constantly in the market for capital. Managers of firms that do not have to go into the market repeatedly and regularly for new capital have more discretion to behave in their own interest rather than those of investors (Easterbrook 1984). The function of dividends is to keep firms in the capital market.
Managers of firms with unused borrowing power and large free cash flows are more like to undertake expansions that are less profitable. The burst of takeovers and leverage buyouts in the 1980s were very much driven by opportunities to profit from reducing corporate slack and downsizing flabby corporate headquarters of large publicly listed companies (Jensen 1986).
Dividends reduce the resources under managers’ control and subjecting them to the monitoring by the capital markets that occurs when a firm must obtain new capital. Financing projects internally avoids this monitoring and the possibility that funds will be unavailable or available only at high explicit prices. Project finance replicates the disciplinary effect of paying regular dividends by borrowing a huge amount at the start of the project. High debt prevents management wasting resources on low return projects.
Dividends are paid by companies to tie the hands of management. Dividends make sure that there is less free cash about for them to spend on projects at their own discretion. When a major expansion must be undertaken, the management of a company must either go to the share market or banks for it to go forward. This means multiple set of decision-makers agree that it is a worthwhile project and provide funding.
The art of business is identifying assets in low-valued uses and devising ways to profitably move them into higher values uses (Froeb and McCann 2008). Wealth is created when entrepreneurs move assets to higher-valued uses.
Froeb and McCann (2008) argued that mistakes are made – business opportunities are missed – for one of two reasons:
1. A lack of information; or
2. Bad incentives.
Rational, self-interested actors err because either they do not have enough information to make better decisions, or they lack incentives to make the best use of information they already have.
Froeb and McCann (2008) argued that three questions arise about all business problems:
1. Who is making the bad decision?
2. Does the decision maker have enough information to make a good decision?
3. Does the decision maker have the incentives to make a good decision?
For Froeb and McCann (2008), the answers to these questions immediately suggest ways to fix them:
1. Let someone else make the decision;
2. Give more information to the decision maker; or
3. Change the decision makers’ incentives.
Dividends follow all three points in this matrix. Dividends include others in investment and expansion decisions of the company. These bankers or new share investors must be given more information on the merits of the new or enlarged project.
The project will not go ahead and any benefits to the careers of the executives championing it will not be forthcoming unless they can persuade these outside parties with plenty of other investment options of the merits of the project.
Dividend show that the market process as well alert to the risks of separating ownership from control. Counter strategies are developed to channel the efforts and align the interests of management teams towards those of investors and owners.
The ownership structure and dividend policies of firms arise out of the search for the capital structure that maximises profits. Different divisions of risk between creditors and shareholders and decision-making rights between owners, boards of directors and managers all affect the value and profitability of a firm. Dividends contribute to that search more profitable forms of organisation by restricting free cash flows in the hands of management.
Creative destruction in car industry market shares
21 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, international economics, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
Profit rates of New Zealand banks, 2015
15 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in industrial organisation, law and economics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, survivor principle Tags: competition law, competition policy, economics of banking, state owned enterprises
Downsizing, morale & productivity @SueMoroney @GreenCatherine #livingwage
13 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, labour economics, labour supply, personnel economics, survivor principle

It comes as a surprise to living wage advocates that entrepreneurs are so alert to the impact of downsizing and firm closures on employee morale that they keep these a secret to the last possible minute.
Entrepreneurs are not fools. They profit from alertness to the effects of changes in the fortunes of the firm on labour productivity. There is a vast literature on how to motivate workers towards more effort and diligence and honesty.

I worked at a Japanese private university whose financial survival was always in question. We spent a lot of time gossiping about the security of our jobs.
I refer to one year at one employer as the year of doing nothing because management was so consumed with restructuring and downsizing. They were too busy to sign out the output of their staff.
I have come across an estimate the effect of downsizing announcement on productivity at a German bakery chain of 193 shops.

The study found that announcements of a sale to a new owner and closure reduced sales by six and 21 percent, respectively. This negative effect increased with the share of workers on a permanent contract, even though these workers faced a much lower unemployment risk. Fewer customers were served per unit of time because of less employee effort at the bakery chain.
Going back to my year of doing nothing, which dragged out through worker consultations sought by the unions under the collective agreement, I remember chatting to a mate whose father was in the downsizing consulting business. He told me that private businesses get downsizing over as quickly as possible because of the impact on morale and productivity. Entrepreneurs are perfectly aware that uncertainty promotes office gossip and valuable staff moving on.
Oil prices were really low in the 90s
04 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, energy economics, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: cartel theory, Oil prices, OPEC
Creative destruction in digital cameras
03 Mar 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: creative destruction
Landcorp dividends and capital injections, 2007 – 2015 @dbseymour @JordNZ
27 Feb 2016 1 Comment
in environmental economics, financial economics, industrial organisation, politics - New Zealand, public economics, survivor principle Tags: agricultural economics, privatisation, state owned enterprises
As cash cows go, Landcorp has had $2.25 million more in capital injections from taxpayers than it returned to them in dividends since 2007.
Source: data released by the New Zealand Treasury under the Official Information Act.
Those $1.5 billion in assets in Landcorp do not appear to be worth a cent in net cash to the long-suffering taxpayer.
Source: data released by the New Zealand Treasury under the Official Information Act.
Landcorp is a state-owned enterprise of the New Zealand government. Its core business is pastoral farming including dairy, sheep, beef and deer. In January 2012, Landcorp managed 137 properties carrying 1.5 million stock units on 376,156 hectares of land.
How did German, Italian, French, British and American billionaires make their money?
26 Feb 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, survivor principle Tags: billionaires, British economy, entrepreneurial alertness, France, Germany, Italy, superstar wages, superstars
@BernieSanders how did Danish, Swedish, Finnish & Norwegian billionaires make their money?
25 Feb 2016 Leave a comment
in economic history, entrepreneurship, industrial organisation, politics - USA, survivor principle Tags: 2016 presidential election, billionaires, Denmark, entrepreneurial alertness, Finland, inherited wealth, Norway, superstar wages, superstars, Sweden
OK, Nordic billionaire population sizes might be small, but plenty more billionaires make their own money in neoliberal USA than in Bernie Sanders’ Utopia
Chinese, Hong Kong, Taiwanese and Japanese billionaires by source of wealth
24 Feb 2016 Leave a comment
in development economics, economic history, entrepreneurship, financial economics, growth miracles, industrial organisation, rentseeking, survivor principle Tags: billionaires, China, entrepreneurial alertness, Hong Kong, Japan, superstar wages, superstars, Taiwan
Surprisingly few billionaires in any of the 4 countries obtained their wealth through political connections. Founding a company seems to be still the path of great wealth even in Japan these days. Hong Kong is a financial centre so the large number of billionaires in its financial sector is no surprise.





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