Indian parents are scaling walls to help their kids cheat because economics

I ask what is the point of passing an exam where there is widespread cheating, and in consequence the exam has little credibility. What is the point of holding an exam when there is widespread cheating?

If you seek to learn skills, cheating would be totally counter-productive. But if the exam simply produces a credential that people accept, students look for ways to get the credential as painlessly as possible.

Cheating works best if the signalling model of education is true. Students should cheat more in those courses that offer the least productivity gains.

Serious cheaters have been found to be more likely to be younger and have a lower grade point average. But as  argues

“I sometimes find evidence of cheating on exams but I rarely take action, I don’t have to.  Almost invariably the cheaters get abysmally low grades even without penalty.

Some people I know get annoyed when students without evident handicap ask for and receive special treatment such as extra time on exams.  I comply without rancor as the extra time never seems to help.  Over the years I have had a number of students ask for incompletes.  None have ever become completes.

I call this the law of below averages.”

 

Still further evidence of the reversing gender gap, this time in education

Millennials On Track to be the Most Educated Generation to Date

via How Millennials compare with their grandparents 50 years ago | Pew Research Center.

The reversing gender gap

wives contribution to family earning

worklife conflict in couples

prime age female labour force participation

HT: The U.S. Economy According to the White House in 10 Charts – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

17 equations that change the world

The gender gap in low achievement at school

the gender gap in low achievement

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The Dunning Kruger effect versus non-directional coaching

This seems to be a tension between the Dunning-Kruger effect on the principles of coaching as encompassed by its modern manifestation, non-directional coaching.

dilbert coaching

Under the modern fad of non-directional coaching, the coach asks open-ended questions which will elicit from the coached his or her own breakthroughs. Questions like what happened, what did you do then, is there another way will lead the student of the coach to reveal their knowledge within?

Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a paper in which they described cognitive trait that quickly became known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. In a recent article, Dunning summarizes the effect as:

…incompetent people do not recognize—scratch that, cannot recognize—just how incompetent they are

He further explains:

What’s curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious.

Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.

(Photo: Gregg Segal)

People who lack the skill to do something also lack the skill to recognise that they don’t know how to do it and to develop the skill how to do it. Dunning also points out:

An ignorant mind is precisely not a spotless, empty vessel, but one that’s filled with the clutter of irrelevant or misleading life experiences, theories, facts, intuitions, strategies, algorithms, heuristics, metaphors, and hunches that regrettably have the look and feel of useful and accurate knowledge.

I’m bad at spelling, grammar and proofreading my own work. To know how skilled or unskilled I am at using the rules of grammar,  I must have a good working knowledge of those rules to start with the self-assessed myself as not been good at grammar. This is impossible for me to find out for myself because I don’t know the rules of grammar to tell me that I don’t know the rules of grammar and to what extent I don’t know the rules of grammar. I have succumbed to the Dunning-Kruger Effect

“The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.

The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding.

As Kruger and Dunning conclude, ‘the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others’. The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others.”

Gilbert on the Dunning Kruger effect

Poor performers fails to see the flaws in their thinking or the answers they lack. As Dunning explains:

A whole battery of studies conducted by myself and others have confirmed that people who don’t know much about a given set of cognitive, technical, or social skills tend to grossly overestimate their prowess and performance, whether it’s grammar, emotional intelligence, logical reasoning, firearm care and safety, debating, or financial knowledge.

College students who hand in exams that will earn them Ds and Fs tend to think their efforts will be worthy of far higher grades; low-performing chess players, bridge players, and medical students, and elderly people applying for a renewed driver’s license, similarly overestimate their competence by a long shot

Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

  • fail to recognize their own lack of skill;
  • fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
  • fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; and
  • recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they are exposed to training for that skill

Going back to my point about the modern trend in coaching of asking non-directive questions and open-ended questions and expecting the student to make their own breakthroughs, this contradicts the Dunning Kruger effect and the requirement that it be fixed through training. Coaching is not training; they are separate  activities.

I was taught this non-directive coaching and went round the workplace asking questions of colleagues who are not economists using these open-ended questions of a coach. None of them made breakthroughs as a result of questions such as what happened, what happened then and other Socratic questions such as those below:

Conceptual clarification questions

Get them to think more about what exactly they are asking or thinking about. Prove the concepts behind their argument. Use basic ‘tell me more’ questions that get them to go deeper.

· Why are you saying that?

· What exactly does this mean?

· How does this relate to what we have been talking about?

· What is the nature of …?

· What do we already know about this?

· Can you give me an example?

· Are you saying … or … ?

· Can you rephrase that, please?

Probing assumptions

Probing their assumptions makes them think about the presuppositions and unquestioned beliefs on which they are founding their argument. This is shaking the bedrock and should get them really going!

· What else could we assume?

· You seem to be assuming … ?

· How did you choose those assumptions?

· Please explain why/how … ?

· How can you verify or disprove that assumption?

· What would happen if … ?

· Do you agree or disagree with … ?

Probing rationale, reasons and evidence

When they give a rationale for their arguments, dig into that reasoning rather than assuming it is a given. People often use un-thought-through or weakly-understood supports for their arguments.

· Why is that happening?

· How do you know this?

· Show me … ?

· Can you give me an example of that?

· What do you think causes … ?

· What is the nature of this?

· Are these reasons good enough?

· Would it stand up in court?

· How might it be refuted?

· How can I be sure of what you are saying?

· Why is … happening?

· Why? (keep asking it — you’ll never get past a few times)

· What evidence is there to support what you are saying?

· On what authority are you basing your argument?

Questioning viewpoints and perspectives

Most arguments are given from a particular position. So attack the position. Show that there are other, equally valid, viewpoints.

· Another way of looking at this is …, does this seem reasonable?

· What alternative ways of looking at this are there?

· Why it is … necessary?

· Who benefits from this?

· What is the difference between… and…?

· Why is it better than …?

· What are the strengths and weaknesses of…?

· How are … and … similar?

· What would … say about it?

· What if you compared … and … ?

· How could you look another way at this?

Probe implications and consequences

The argument that they give may have logical implications that can be forecast. Do these make sense? Are they desirable?

· Then what would happen?

· What are the consequences of that assumption?

· How could … be used to … ?

· What are the implications of … ?

· How does … affect … ?

· How does … fit with what we learned before?

· Why is … important?

· What is the best … ? Why?

Questions about the question

And you can also get reflexive about the whole thing, turning the question in on itself. Use their attack against themselves. Bounce the ball back into their court, etc.

· What was the point of asking that question?

· Why do you think I asked this question?

· Am I making sense? Why not?

· What else might I ask?

· What does that mean?

Unemployment by education

The key driver of inequality is…

HT: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/05/22/how-education-drives-inequality-among-the-99/

FA Hayek on the mirage of social justice

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Another boy’s own analysis by the IMF of the decline of unions and inequality in recent decades

we find strong evidence that lower unionization is associated with an increase in top income shares in advanced economies during the period 1980–2010

jaumotte chart 1

Gender analysis! Gender analysis! Where is the gender analysis, which is central to any analysis of inequality in and outside of the labour market!

Embedded image permalink

Women have done swimmingly over the last few decades in terms of closing the gender wage gap, increasing labour force participation and overtaking men in investment in higher education.

As for unions and women, their record of discrimination against women as  threat to the union wage premium was so appalling that even Hollywood was willing to take a swipe at unions and the hostility with which mining unions, for example, greeted the first female miners.

In spite of women’s early involvement in labour struggles, deeply ingrained prejudices against women taking a full role in the workplace were often reinforced by labour unions themselves. Women were seen as mere auxiliaries to the movement, or worse, as threats to men’s jobs.

HT: whitehouse.gov

Annual earnings by undergraduate major in the USA

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@greencatherine @PPTAWeb Teachers union concedes that NZ charter schools improve student outcomes?

The New Zealand teachers union went into a very curious rant against chartered schools in a letter to the Dominion Post today. Instead of saying that they do not improve student outcomes, the usual propaganda, the author of the letter focused on system-wide outcomes after the introduction of charter schools.

It is usual for the teachers union to say that the schools themselves fail rather than argue that adding five or 10 schools to a system of thousands of public schools in New Zealand will through competition from these few schools to lift the entire system. For example, the teachers union sets a very high standard for the charter schools:

The United States has had charter schools for a more than a decade and there has been no measurable improvement in that country’s overall performance in literacy, maths and science. The United States lags far behind New Zealand on recent performance tests in all those areas.

It is unwise to say there is no evidence because that leaves you open to the cheap shot that will find one piece of evidence and then ask why you making things up. For example, the Maxim Institute found that:

The evidence from the small body of research that exists is mixed: some studies have found the presence of charter schools to have had a small negative impact on pupil achievement in regular state schools, while other studies have found charter schools to have had either a negligible or small positive impact…

There my work is done. All I had to show was that there was some evidence showing that charter schools improved the performance of neighbouring schools.

Why is the teachers union pretending that this evidence is not there when it can be found and so easily on the Internet?

Is the reason that the evidence that charter schools improve the outcomes of students that go to them is so strong that they have to move to new reasons for opposing them? The evidence is some chartered schools do very well and in particular for minority students. Their greatest strength is they are closed if they fail. No similar standard applies to failing public schools.

At a minimum, the teachers unions have conceded that the charter schools seem to work and that they do no harm to the rest of the system? If there was evidence of that, they would be quick to put it forward.

France, here the New Zealand labour market comes – part 2! How the Employment Court is re-regulating

As discussed yesterday, if the Employment Court had its way, New Zealand case law under the Employment Relations Act regarding redundancies and layoffs would be as job destroying as those in France.

The Employment Court’s war against jobs goes back more than 20 years. To 1991 and G N Hale & Son Ltd v Wellington etc Caretakers etc IUW where the Court held that a redundancy to be justifiable under law it must be ‘unavoidable’, as in redundancies could only arise where the employer’s capacity for business survival was threatened.

The Court of Appeal slapped that down and affirm the right of the employer to manage his business in no uncertain terms:

…this Court must now make it clear that an employer is entitled to make his business more efficient, as for example by automation, abandonment of unprofitable activities, re-organisation or other cost-saving steps, no matter whether or not the business would otherwise go to the wall…

The personal grievance provisions … should not be treated as derogating from the rights of employers to make management decisions genuinely on such grounds. Nor could it be right for the Labour Court to substitute its own opinion as to the wisdom or the expediency of the employer’s decision.

When a dismissal is based on redundancy, it is the good faith of that basis and the fairness of the procedure followed that may fall to be examined on a complaint of unjustifiable dismissal

… the Court and the grievance committees cannot properly be concerned with an examination of the employer’s accounts except in so far as it bears on the true reason for dismissal.

The Employment Court could only inquire as to the genuineness of the employer’s decision and the procedures adopted. The Court could not substitute their views on management decisions. No second-guessing.

In Brake v Grace Team Accounting Ltd, the Employment Court found its way back into second-guessing employer’s decisions about how to manage their business. The figures used by the employer to decide that a redundancy was required were in error. The employer miscalculated.

The Employment Court had previously held in Rittson-Thomas T/A Totara Hills Farm v Hamish Davidson that the statutory test of what a fair and reasonable employer could have done in all the circumstances applies to the substantive reasoning for redundancies. Some enquiry into the employer’s substantive decision is required to establish that a hypothetical fair and reasonable employer could also make the same decision in all of the circumstances.

Subsequently in Brake v Grace Team Accounting Ltd, the Employment Court found that the actions by the employer were “not what a fair and reasonable employer would have done in all the circumstances” and “failed to discharge the burden of showing that the plaintiff’s dismissal for redundancy was justified”.

The Court found that the redundancy was “a genuine, but mistaken, dismissal”, but it still found that the dismissal was substantively unjustified. That is a major new development. Mistaken dismissals that are genuine are unlawful and grounds for compensation under the employment law.

The case was appealed where the issues were whether the correct test had been applied. The Court of Appeal, in a sad day for employers, job creation and the unemployed, found that the Employment Court was within its rights to do what it did and applied the statutory tests correctly:

 GTA acted precipitously and did not exercise proper care in its evaluation of its business situation and it made its decision about Ms Brake’s redundancy on a false premise.

So it never turned its mind to what its proper business needs were but rather proceeded to evaluate its options based on incorrect information. We can see no error in the finding by the Employment Court that a fair and reasonable employer would not do this.

The test is now that fair and reasonable employers in New Zealand do not make mistakes. A much greater burden is now laid upon employers to show that not only that redundancies are justified, but they have made careful calculations and no mistakes.

No more seat of your pants entrepreneurship in New Zealand. No more entrepreneurial hunches – the essence of entrepreneurship is acting on hunches and other judgements that are incapable of being articulated to others and about which there is mighty disagreement in many cases. As Lavoie (1991) states:

…most acts of entrepreneurship are not like an isolated individual finding things on beaches; they require efforts of the creative imagination, skillful judgments of future costs and revenue possibilities, and an ability to read the significance of complex social situations.

The essence of entrepreneurship is your hunches are better than the next guy’s and you survive in competition by backing that hunch often to the consternation of the crowd. As Mises explains:

[Economics] also calls entrepreneurs those who are especially eager to profit from adjusting production to the expected changes in conditions, those who have more initiative, more venturesomeness, and a quicker eye than the crowd, the pushing and promoting pioneers of economic improvement…

The entrepreneurial idea that carries on and brings profits is precisely that idea which did not occur to the majority… The prize goes only to those dissenters who do not let themselves be misled by the errors accepted by the multitude

In many cases, those entrepreneurial hunches are sorted, sifted and selected on the basis of trial and error in the marketplace. Central to Hayek’s conception of the meaning of competition is it is a process of trial and error with many errors:

Although the result would, of course, within fairly wide margins be indeterminate, the market would still bring about a set of prices at which each commodity sold just cheap enough to outbid its potential close substitutes — and this in itself is no small thing when we consider the insurmountable difficulties of discovering even such a system of prices by any other method except that of trial and error in the market, with the individual participants gradually learning the relevant circumstances.

Remember Hayek’s conception of competition as a discovery procedure where prices and production emerge through the clash of entrepreneurial judgements and competitive rivalry:

…competition is important only because and insofar as its outcomes are unpredictable and on the whole different from those that anyone would have been able to consciously strive for; and that its salutary effects must manifest themselves by frustrating certain intentions and disappointing certain expectations

Errors are no longer permitted in the New Zealand labour market by the Employment Court. The Court has outlawed error in redundancy decisions.

This is despite the fact that the conception by Kirzner of the market process is that it is an error correction procedure without rival and a central role of entrepreneurial alertness is to correct errors in pricing and production:

It is important to notice the role played in this process of market discovery by pure entrepreneurial profit. Pure profit opportunities emerge continually as errors are made by market participants in a changing world. The inevitably fleeting character of these opportunities arises from the powerful market tendency for entrepreneurs to notice, exploit, and then eliminate these pure price differentials.

The paradox of pure profit opportunities is precisely that they are at the same time both continually emerging and yet continually disappearing. It is this incessant process of the creation and the destruction of opportunities for pure profit that makes up the discovery procedure of the market. It is this process that keeps entrepreneurs reasonably abreast of changes in consumer preferences, in available technologies, and in resource availabilities.

Rothbard made similar arguments about the centrality of discrepancies and error in entrepreneurship:

The capitalist-entrepreneur buys factors or factor services in the present; his product must be sold in the future. He is always on the alert, then, for discrepancies, for areas where he can earn more than the going rate of interest.

In Frank Knight’s conception of profit, there were temporary profits that arise from the correction of error:

In the theory of competition, all adjustments “tend” to be made correctly, through the correction of errors on the basis of experience, and pure profit accordingly tends to be temporary.

The Employment Court misunderstands the market process as a process of error correction. Those errors are identified through entrepreneurial alertness and trial and error. These errors are both of over-optimism and over-pessimism as Kirzner explains:

Errors of over-pessimism are those in which superior opportunities have been overlooked. They manifest themselves in the emergence of more than one price for a product which these resources can create. They generate pure profit opportunities which attract entrepreneurs who, by grasping them, correct these over-pessimistic errors.

The other kind of error, error due to over-optimism, has a different source and plays a different role in the entrepreneurial discovery process. Over-optimistic error occurs when a market participant expects to be able to complete a plan which cannot, in fact, be completed.

A considerable part of entrepreneurial alertness arises from the business opportunities created by sheer ignorance and pure error as Kirzner explains:

What distinguishes discovery (relevant to hitherto unknown profit opportunities) from successful search (relevant to the deliberate production of information which one knew one had lacked) is that the former (unlike the latter) involves that surprise which accompanies the realization that one had overlooked something in fact readily available. (“It was under my very nose!”)

The market process is a selection procedure where the more efficient survive for reasons that may be unknown to the entrepreneurs directly concerned as well as to observers and officious judges. Alchian pointed out the evolutionary struggle for survival in the face of market competition ensured that only the profit maximising firms survived:

  • Realised profits, not maximum profits, are the marks of success and viability in any market. It does not matter through what process of reasoning or motivation that business success is achieved.
  • Realised profit is the criterion by which the market process selects survivors.
  • Positive profits accrue to those who are better than their competitors, even if the participants are ignorant, intelligent, skilful, etc. These lesser rivals will exhaust their retained earnings and fail to attract further investor support.
  • As in a race, the prize goes to the relatively fastest ‘even if all the competitors loaf.’
  • The firms which quickly imitate more successful firms increase their chances of survival. The firms that fail to adapt, or do so slowly, risk a greater likelihood of failure.
  • The relatively fastest in this evolutionary process of learning, adaptation and imitation will, in fact, be the profit maximisers and market selection will lead to the survival only of these profit maximising firms.

The surviving firms may not know why they are successful, but they have survived and will keep surviving until overtaken by a better rival. All business needs to know is a practice is successful.

One method of organising production and supplying to the market will supplant another when it can supply at a lower price (Marshall 1920, Stigler 1958). Gary Becker (1962) argued that firms cannot survive for long in the market with inferior product and production methods regardless of what their motives are. They will not cover their costs.

The more efficient sized firms are the firm sizes that are currently expanding their market shares in the face of competition; the less efficient sized are those firms that are currently losing market share (Stigler 1958; Alchian 1950; Demsetz 1973, 1976). Business vitality and capacity for growth and innovation are only weakly related to cost conditions and often depends on many factors that are subtle and difficult to observe (Stigler 1958, 1987). The Employment Court pretends to know better than the outcome of the competitive struggle in the market for survival.

The Employment Court also believes employers have something akin to academic tenure. In 2010, the Court found that an employee’s redundancy was unjustified because the employer did not offer redeployment and there is no requirement that the right of the redeployment be written into the employment agreement (Wang v Hamilton Multicultural Services Trust). The particulars of this case were quite interesting:

  • A new management role was created with significantly more responsibility for training, supervision and decision making than the redundant finance administrator role, with a 50% salary increase to recognise the increased responsibilities and duties.
  • The vacancy was advertised externally but the existing finance administrator was encouraged to apply.
  • His experience and qualifications meant that he could fulfil the new role, albeit with some up-skilling.
  • He decided not to apply for it to avoid jeopardising a personal grievance claim that his redundancy was not genuine and therefore unjustified.

In the case at hand, the Employment Court held that the employer was obliged to look for alternatives to making the employee redundant. Given that he would be able to perform the new finance manager position with some up-skilling, the employer should have offered him the position rather than simply inviting him to apply for it.

The notion that an employee through training can quickly increase their marginal productivity by 50% to fill a more senior role contradicts the modern labour economics of human capital. A 50% salary increase through a bit of training would imply extraordinary annual returns on other forms of on-the-job training and formal education as well as the training at hand in the Employment Court case.

I would very much like to be in the position where I can get a 50% salary increase after a bit of training. As I recall, I required about 5-10 years of on-the-job human capital acquisition before my starting salary as a graduate was 50% higher through promotion and transfers.

In summary, the Employment Court stands apart from the modern labour economics of human capital and job search and matching as well as the modern theory of entrepreneurial alertness, and the market as a discovery procedure and an error correction mechanism. The Employment Court has fallen for both the pretence to knowledge and the fatal conceit.

Are women just too smart to be computer scientists?

Women started drifting away from computer science in the mid-1980s. The interpretation put forward by the professional grievance industry, that is, by National Public Radio in the USA is:

The share of women in computer science started falling at roughly the same moment when personal computers started showing up in U.S. homes in significant numbers.

These early personal computers weren’t much more than toys. You could play pong or simple shooting games, maybe do some word processing.

And these toys were marketed almost entirely to men and boys. This idea that computers are for boys became a narrative. It became the story we told ourselves about the computing revolution. It helped define who geeks were, and it created techie culture.

Source: NPR

Another interpretation is there are systematic differences between teenage boys and teenage girls in verbal and written skills. Young women moved away from enrolling in computer science because they could make better use of their superior written and verbal skills in medicine and law. Computer science is for those with inferior social skills, on average.

As for computers in the early days been marketed to men and boys, people with inferior verbal and reading skills would be attracted to sitting in front of the computer playing games because of their inferior social skills. Computers were expensive back in the 80s so marketing them to people with fewer social skills is sensible as they were more willing to spend money to fill the extra time they spend on their own.

The difference in reading and verbal skills between girls and boys at the age of 15 is equal to 6-months extra schooling. Six months schooling explains a lot of the wage gaps on ethnic, racial and gender lines. Not surprisingly, fewer women do computer science because their superior reading and verbal skills qualify them for medicine and law where they can take greater advantage of their mix of talents.

It is all about being the best you can be. As many women as men ending up in STEM occupations does not necessarily mean people are making the choices that help them be the best they can be because some women may not be taking advantage of their superior reading skills.

Concerned about labour market discrimination?

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