Goldilocks and the Laffer Curve

Other than Art Laffer, I think of myself as the world’s biggest advocate of the Laffer Curve. I’ve literally written hundreds of columns explaining and promoting the concept. My goal is to help people understand that there is not a linear relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. Why is this the case? Because when […]

Goldilocks and the Laffer Curve

A negative productivity shock from working from home

Identity-based hiring goes wild in New Zealand

Just to show you how, in the hiring process, New Zealand gives much more weight to identity than to merit, I enclose part of the job description for the position of Chief Operating Officer of Wellington Water, the water utility for the Greater Wellington region (Wellington, a lovely city, is the capital of New Zealand).  […]

Identity-based hiring goes wild in New Zealand

By 2025 we were supposed to have closed the gap

Don Brash and Michael Reddell write – When Don was young and Michael’s parents were young, New Zealand had among the very highest material standards of living in the world. It really was, in the old line, one of the very best places to bring up children. But no longer. For 75 years now, with […]

By 2025 we were supposed to have closed the gap

Mocking European Statism

I have a special page for humor involving Europe, but I have not added to it since sharing some Brexit humor in 2016. Let’s being the process of catching up with some amusing cartoons and memes mocking our government-loving cousins on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. I’ve made the serious point that bureaucrats […]

Mocking European Statism

Spoiling for a Fight: Why Challenging Birthright Citizenship is a Win-Win for Trump

Below is my column in the Hill on the move of the Trump Administration against birthright citizenship. The Trump Administration believes that this is fight worth either winning or even losing in the courts. Roughly half of the country oppose birthright citizenship. The key is where those voters are coming from. The minority of voters […]

Spoiling for a Fight: Why Challenging Birthright Citizenship is a Win-Win for Trump

The Child Penalty: An International View

It’s well-known that when a couple has a child, the average woman experiences a “child penalty” in labor market outcomes, while outcomes for the man are largely unchanged. For a discussion of this pattern using US data, here’s an article by Jane Waldfogel from back in 1998 in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. As that…

The Child Penalty: An International View

Babies and the Macroeconomy

By Claudia Goldin. From NPR’s Planet Money.”Countries around the world have seen a jaw-dropping decline in fertility rates. In this paper, Claudia Goldin, the 2023 winner of the Nobel Prize in economic sciences, offers a new theory to help explain why (listen to The Indicator’s conversation with her back in 2021). Goldin starts by providing…

Babies and the Macroeconomy

Technological Disruption in the Labor Market

By David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence H. Summers. From NPR’s Planet Money. Summers was Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001, director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 and president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006.”Obviously, there is a big fear right now that artificial intelligence will kill…

Technological Disruption in the Labor Market

When did sustained economic growth begin?

The subtitle is New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870, and the authors are Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson.  Abstract: We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these […]

When did sustained economic growth begin?

Reviewing Covid experiences and policies

I’ve spent the last week writing a fairly substantial review of a recent book (“Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism: How we crushed the curve but lost the race”) by a couple of Australian academic economists on Australia’s pandemic policies and experiences. For all its limitations, there isn’t anything similar in New Zealand. What we do have is […]

Reviewing Covid experiences and policies

My 92nd St. Y debate with Robert Kuttner on income inequality

Here goes: Ex po st, the Manhattan audience swung thirty (!) points in my favor, compared to the pre-debate poll.  This was a fun event for me.

My 92nd St. Y debate with Robert Kuttner on income inequality

The 1920s immigration restrictions

The 1920s immigration restrictions in the US did not affect manufacturing wages. The US immigration restrictions of the 1920s lowered the occupational standings of whites and incumbent immigrants. US counties with more immigrants excluded by the quotas of the 1920s saw increased in-migration. During the Great Black Migration of the US, black southerners moved to […]

The 1920s immigration restrictions

Daron Acemoglu expects only a tiny macroeconomic impact of AI

It would be fair to say that 2024 Nobel Prize winner Daron Acemoglu has been a bit of a sceptic about the impacts of generative AI (for example, see here). This scepticism is exemplified in a new paper forthcoming in the journal Economic Policy (ungated earlier version here). Acemoglu first notes that:Some experts believe that truly…

Daron Acemoglu expects only a tiny macroeconomic impact of AI

No Tech Workers or No Tech Jobs?

Several recent tweets(xeets) about tech talent re-ignited the conversation about native-born STEM workers and American policy. For the Very Online, Christmas 2024 was about the H-1B Elon tweets. Elon Musk implies that “elite” engineering talent cannot be found among Americans. Do Americans need to import talent? What would it take to home grow elite engineering […]

No Tech Workers or No Tech Jobs?

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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

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