Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom

The world’s most under-appreciated problem is demographic decline mixed with tax-and-transfer entitlement programs. Those two factors, when combined, are a massive problem. All of which is explained in my series on demographic change and fiscal crisis (see here, here, here, here, and here). Today, let’s focus on the problem in Europe, building on what I […]

Part II: Demographics + Entitlements = Europe’s Doom

College-educated women have maintained stable marriage rates by partnering with high-earning non-college men, shrinking the pool of economically viable partners available to non-college women

See Gender Disparities in College Enrollment and Marriage Patterns by Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman & Joseph Winkelmann.”Over the past half-century, the gender composition of American college campuses has shifted from predominantly male to predominantly female. Today, 1.6 million more women than men attend four-year colleges in the US. Over the same time period, the economic status…

College-educated women have maintained stable marriage rates by partnering with high-earning non-college men, shrinking the pool of economically viable partners available to non-college women

The Confucian fertility paradox

Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal…

The Confucian fertility paradox

Did UBI make people happier?

Eh, only in the short run: We study the causal impacts of income on a rich array of employment outcomes, leveraging an experiment in which 1,000 low-income individuals were randomized into receiving $1,000 per month unconditionally for three years, with a control group of 2,000 participants receiving $50/month. We gather detailed survey data, administrative records,…

Did UBI make people happier?

The effects of remote work on the disability employment gap

A rise in work from home explains most of the postpandemic gain in full-time employment among people with physical disabilitiesBy Tyler Smith. “Employment among people with disabilities has remained well below that of the broader population, with an average disability employment gap of 27 percentage points across OECD countries. In the United States, this low disability…

The effects of remote work on the disability employment gap

Alex Tabarrok: Britain’s equal pay madness

The Taliban, Women and the Far Left

It is five years today since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. On 15 August 2021, its forces entered Kabul as the Afghan government collapsed and the long Western intervention came to an ignominious end. Five years later, the consequences for Afghan women are appalling. The Taliban has issued more than 100 decrees restricting the […]

The Taliban, Women and the Far Left

Incentive Misalignment in Communism: the case of Vietnam

Rainer Zitelmann writes in How Capitalism Beat Communism in Vietnam in Reason Magazine, The state collectives did not reward members for the amount of rice they produced, but instead counted how many days they had worked. 183 more words

Incentive Misalignment in Communism: the case of Vietnam

Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries

OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration over 1990-2024. We compile a new dataset of net immigration rates to OECD countries from all origins and show that most of the increase came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled. Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the large…

Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries

The power of incentives with illegal migration

At the end of June the Spanish Supreme Court ruled that migrants arriving by sea could not be summarily deported. A few weeks later 60,000 people from Morocco crossed in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, almost doubling their population in a few days. People smugglers exploit situations. This is why you need harsh preventive measures.…

The power of incentives with illegal migration

New Zealand shows how to solve the equal pay crisis

Outgoing governments often try to craft a legacy for themselves by introducing policy traps that incoming governments find hard to undo, such as Rishi Sunak’s National Insurance cuts in 2024 or Gordon Brown’s introduction of the 50p top rate of income tax in 2010. Keir Starmer just did something similar by initiating a huge expansion in the […]

New Zealand shows how to solve the equal pay crisis

The population bust

The Most Depressing Chart about Germany

I’ve used the “most depressing chart” approach when writing about the United States, about Europe, about Japan, and about the western world. Today, let’s focus on Germany. And I’ll start with a caveat. I wrote about Germany earlier this month and that column included several charts that might qualify. Especially the last visual which showed […]

The Most Depressing Chart about Germany

The economic effects of GLP-1s

We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness…

The economic effects of GLP-1s

The Apples and Oranges Tribunal

Suppose that apples sell for more than oranges and Parliament in it’s wisdom decides that, at last, apples and oranges must be compared. Not by shoppers — shoppers are biased, they merely reveal what they are willing to pay — but by a tribunal, which will determine whether apples and oranges are of truly equal…

The Apples and Oranges Tribunal

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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.