Implicit tax on a lone parent returning to a low-paid job in the USA, UK, Denmark, France, Germany, Canada, Australia and New Zealand

image

Source: Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth – OECD (2016).

Ratio of unemployment and single parents benefit to the New Zealand net average wage since 1970

image

Source: OECD Economic Survey New Zealand 2015.

Public, mandatory private and private social expenditure as % of US GDP, selected years since 1980

image

Source: OECD Income Distribution database.

Public, mandatory & voluntary private social expenditure, G7, Nordics, Australia & New Zealand

Mandatory and voluntary private social expenditure makes a big difference to the degree of social insurance in some countries but not others. The calculation of these numbers in purchasing power parity would be much more interesting.

image

Source: OECD Income Distribution database.

% social benefits in cash by income quintile, G7, Nordics, Australia and New Zealand

Some welfare states are much more targeted. Australia has the most targeted welfare state in terms of public social benefits paid in cash to the bottom quintile (Q1) of income earners.

image

Source: OECD Income Distribution database.

Food Stamp Work Requirement Cuts Non-parent Caseload by 75% @GreenCatherine

In common with New Zealand, Maine found that a number could not complete work requirements because they could not get time off work from their off the books job.

Lindsay Mitchell found through Official Information Act requests that one in 10 beneficiaries are working full-time and one in 5 have no intention of looking for a job in the next year despite a requirement to actively look for work as a condition of receipt of their benefit.

@GreenCatherine 1996 US welfare reforms & deep poverty @JulieAnneGenter

The 1996 federal welfare reforms were supposed to condemn the poor to homelessness and no money to buy food. Deep poverty did not get worse as a result of those reforms. That alone refutes its critics.

Source: Take 2: Another Look at Bernie Sanders, Welfare Reform, and Deep Poverty | Mother Jones.

Source: New Study Says Poverty Rate Hasn’t Budged For 40 Years | Mother Jones.

Source: Weekend Follow-Up #1: Welfare Reform and Deep Poverty | Mother Jones.

The 1996 US federal welfare reforms at 20

Despite the dire predictions, there has been a permanent reduction in child poverty of 25%, a 35% increase in the employment rates of never married mothers and a 16% increase in the employment rates of single mothers.

Minorities benefited the most from the 1996 US federal welfare reforms in terms of higher employment rates and lower child poverty rates.

As part of the 1996 reforms, Medicaid eligibility was not lost when going off welfare and single parents by getting a job qualified for the Earned Income Tax Credit.

Three different ways of measuring income growth since 1979 in the USA

https://www.facebook.com/592589870775439/photos/pb.592589870775439.-2207520000.1454057624./1145351625499258/?type=3&theater

Ethnicity of people receiving Sole Parent Support in NZ

More evidence from the @economicpolicy institute of the great success of the 1996 US federal welfare reforms

@garethmorgannz are the poor are just like everyone else except that they have less money?

There is a large literature on what money can buy in terms of improved child outcomes. Central to the left-wing view is the poorer are just like everyone else but they have less money. Susan Mayer, a proud registered Democrat all her life, kick-started the literature challenging this with her book in 1997.

More money does help the children of poor families but the effect is considerably less–and more complicated–than is generally thought because as Mayer says ‘once children’s basic material needs are met, characteristics of their parents become more important to how they turn out than anything additional money can buy.

Doubling the income of poor families would lift most children above the poverty line, it would have virtually no effect on their test scores and only a slight effect on social behaviour. Among her findings, which have largely survive the test of time, are:

  1. Higher parental income has little impact on reading and mathematics test scores.
  2. Higher income increases the number of years that children attend school by only one-fifth of a year.
  3. Higher income does not reduce the amount of time sons are idle as young adults.
  4. Higher income reduces the probability of daughters growing up to be single mothers by 8 to 20 percent.

Mayer found that as parents have more money to spend, they usually spend the extra money on food, especially food eaten in restaurants; larger homes; and on more automobiles. As a result, children are likely to be better housed and better fed, but not necessarily better educated or better prepared for high-income jobs. Mayer said that her findings do not endorse massive cuts in welfare:

My results do not show that we can cut income support programs with impunity…Indeed, they suggest that income support programs have been relatively successful in maintaining the material living standard of many poor children.

Mayer found that non-monetary factors play a bigger role than previously thought in determining how children overcome disadvantage as she explains. Parent-child interactions appear to be important for children’s success, but the study shows little evidence that a parent’s income has a large influence on parenting practices.

Mayer said that if money alone were responsible for overcoming such problems as unwed pregnancy, low educational achievement and male idleness, states with higher welfare benefits could expect to see reductions in these problems. In reality

once we control all relevant state characteristics, the apparent effect of increasing Aid to Families with Dependent Children benefits is very small.

Social economics has been here before. In the 1960s, the Coleman Report rather than finding that investing in schools improved child outcomes found that most variation between child outcomes depended on family backgrounds. When we talking about schools not matter in too much we are talking about average bad schools and average good school not American inner-city schools into war zones.

Source: Savings, Genes, and Fade-Out, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty.

Behavioural genetics has been a bit of a blow to those that think greater parental investment can raise child outcomes as Bryan Caplan has explained:

Economists like Nobel laureate Gary Becker have been studying the family for decades.  Like most modern parents, economists usually take it for granted that “parental investment” has large, lasting effects on adult outcomes.

And yet adoption and twin researchers find surprisingly little evidence for this this assumption(link is external)!  With a few notable exceptions, the measured effect of upbringing on adult outcomes is small to zero.  Adoptees barely resemble their adopting families, identical twins are much more similar than fraternal twins, and identical twins raised apart are often as similar as identical twins raised together.  Almost all traits run in families, but the overarching reason is heredity.

Caplan notes that while it is extremely difficult for parental investments to change the adult outcomes of his children, it is well within his power to give his children a happy childhood.

1996 US welfare reforms & single mother employment rates @garethmorgannz @geoffsimmonz

image

Source: Ron Haskins (2015).

Poverty Rates by Mothers’ Marital Status, 1987 to 2013

image

Source: Congressional Research Service.https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41917.pdf

What is the success sequence?

image

Source: The success sequence: Conservatives think they have a formula for raising people out of poverty.

.

Previous Older Entries Next Newer Entries

Thoughts from the North

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Fardels Bear

A History of the Alt-Right

Vincent Geloso

Econ Prof at George Mason University, Economic Historian, Québécois

Bassett, Brash & Hide

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Truth on the Market

Scholarly commentary on law, economics, and more

The Undercover Historian

Beatrice Cherrier's blog

Matua Kahurangi

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Temple of Sociology

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Velvet Glove, Iron Fist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Why Evolution Is True

Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.

NoTricksZone

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Homepaddock

A rural perspective with a blue tint by Ele Ludemann

Kiwiblog

DPF's Kiwiblog - Fomenting Happy Mischief since 2003

The Dangerous Economist

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Watts Up With That?

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

The Logical Place

Tim Harding's writings on rationality, informal logic and skepticism

Doc's Books

A window into Doc Freiberger's library

The Risk-Monger

Let's examine hard decisions!

Uneasy Money

Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey

Barrie Saunders

Thoughts on public policy and the media

Liberty Scott

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Point of Order

Politics and the economy

James Bowden's Blog

A blog (primarily) on Canadian and Commonwealth political history and institutions

Science Matters

Reading between the lines, and underneath the hype.

Peter Winsley

Economics, and such stuff as dreams are made on

A Venerable Puzzle

"The British constitution has always been puzzling, and always will be." --Queen Elizabeth II

The Antiplanner

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

Bet On It

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

History of Sorts

WORLD WAR II, MUSIC, HISTORY, HOLOCAUST

Roger Pielke Jr.

Undisciplined scholar, recovering academic

Offsetting Behaviour

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

JONATHAN TURLEY

Res ipsa loquitur - The thing itself speaks

Conversable Economist

In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”

The Victorian Commons

Researching the House of Commons, 1832-1868

The History of Parliament

Articles and research from the History of Parliament Trust

Books & Boots

Reflections on books and art

Legal History Miscellany

Posts on the History of Law, Crime, and Justice

Sex, Drugs and Economics

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law

European Royal History

Exploring the Monarchs of Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Cutting edge science you can dice with

Marginal REVOLUTION

Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. - J Robert Oppenheimer.

STOP THESE THINGS

The truth about the great wind power fraud - we're not here to debate the wind industry, we're here to destroy it.

Lindsay Mitchell

Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law