Does mandatory arrest rules deter domestic violence?

  1. Many states have passed mandatory arrest laws, which require the police to arrest abusers when a domestic violence incident is reported. These laws were justified by a randomized experiment in Minnesota which found that arrests reduced future violence.

  2. Using the FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports, Iyengar found that mandatory arrest laws actually increased intimate partner homicides. He hypothesized that this increase in homicides is due to decreased reporting.

  3. Iyengar investigate validity of this reporting hypothesis by examining the effect of mandatory arrest laws on family homicides where the victim is less often responsible for reporting. For family homicides, mandatory arrest laws appear to reduce homicides.

  4. This study provided evidence that mandatory arrest  laws may have perverse effects on intimate partner violence, harming the very people they were seeking to help.

  5. Finding  that mandatory arrests deters victim reporting rather than perpetrator abuse provides valuable insight into the intricacies facing attempts to decrease intimate partner violence.

Source: Radha Iyengar “Does Arrest Deter Violence? Comparing Experimental and Non-experimental Evidence on Arrest Laws” in The Economics of Crime (2010) Chapter 12.

Figure 1: Plot of fifteen-year compilation of 911 calls and arrests for simple assault in Colorado Springs versus increase in population

But see “Explaining the Recent Decline in Domestic Violence” by Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler in Contemporary Economic Policy (2003) who found that three important factors  were likely to have contribute to the decline in domestic violence in the USA in the 1990s:

(1) the increased provision of legal services for victims of intimate partner abuse,

(2) improvements in women’s economic status, and

(3) demographic trends, most notably the aging of the population.

The power and self-discipline of parsimonious analysis

Some bristle over the small size of the basic analytical tool kit of economists and the leanness of the behavioural assumptions therein (Stigler 1987). 

Simpler explanations and more parsimonious abstractions are better ‘engines for the discovery of concrete truth’ about how people will respond to changes in their economic and social environments.

A limited set of causes or postulates in a theory reduces the chances that one or more of the assumptions on a more extensive list inadvertently explains away in an ad hoc manner every possible anomaly, or allows for a deft reinterpretation and/or adaptation to temporise and escape refutation. An every growing number of auxiliary hypotheses and ah hoc assumptions to co-op inconvenient facts may forever immunise the basic theory under scrutiny against testing and falsification (Olson 1982; Popper 1963). More parsimonious abstractions are less likely to found theories that seem to have successfully explained a particular social phenomenon spuriously by chance.

Complex human objectives are not assumed in economic analysis because everything could be explained and nothing could be falsified. Every empirical anomaly could be covered in advance by assuming human objectives that are sufficiently complex and large enough in number that are pursued with a high frequency of error and inertia (Friedman 1990; Popper 1963).

Subsequent ad hoc reinterpretations that add new objectives or additional sources of human frailty can finesse major anomalies to make the basic theory compatible with the facts to side-step refutation. Heavily qualified theories and intricate explanations of narrow application rarely come in the open for long enough to be found wanting.

A good theory is a prohibition: the theory forbids certain things to happen. The more that a theory forbids, the better the theory is. Bold, novel and chancy predictions are even better still.

These predictions are less likely to explain social and economic behaviour spuriously by chance. If incorrect or incomplete, bold and novel predictions are more likely to be quickly found at odds with experience and the basic theory is either revised or is discarded (Popper 1963).

Justice as efficiency

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Market Failure, Considered as an Argument both for and Against Government| David Friedman

The price of free speech

The price of freedom of religion or of speech or of the press is that we must put up with, and even pay for, a good deal of rubbish.  - Robert Jackson

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Forensic statistics and drugs in sport

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Years ago, I read a newspaper article in the Sydney Morning Herald about how forensic statistics was used to detect drugs in sport through the differences in athletic performance between men and women in track and field.

Drugs in certain sports make women  disproportionately stronger, and therefore  reduces the disparity between them and men in sports that require pure strength.

In the 1980s, the gap between men and women in track and field performances had been narrowing. In 1992, major improvements were made in drug testing. In consequence, the gap between men and women in athletic performance started to widen again.

In about 1992, as I recall, athletic records for women that used to be broken several times in one major international meeting  such as the Olympics suddenly stood for years before they were broken again.

HT: Phil Hurst and SecureGame

The Free Enterprise Philosophy In a 12-Cell Matrix

via http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/20267

Forget income inequality, lets go after zoning restrictions…

 

via Managerial Econ: Forget income inequality, lets go after zoning restrictions….

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An Englishman’s home is his castle

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Institutions matter

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Rwanda has better institutions than the congo.

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Haiti and the dominican republic share the same island but not the same property rights.

Blackstone’s Ratio

Blackstones-ratio.jpg

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British justice and the rule of law

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Richard Posner on Bill Gates as a development economist

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The golden thread running through British justice

Reinterpreting market failure as market success

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