Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
27 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, growth disasters, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: Argentina
I’ve been participating in a conference in Argentina this week on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” Part I reviewed the horrible economic conditions that plagued Argentina when Javier Milei took office. Part II looked at Milei’s spending restraint and some of the subsequent improvements in fiscal outcomes. Part III examined Milei’s remarkable progress with regards to […]
Javier Milei Week, Part V: Fixing Argentina’s Monetary Crisis
23 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth disasters, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics Tags: Argentina
Given my enthusiasm for Javier Milei and his libertarian reforms, I’m excited to be in Buenos Aires for a week-long program on “Understanding Argentina’s Transformations Under Milei.” This means a heavy does of Milei-ism this week. For today’s column, I’m going to share some slides from a presentation by Alejandro Rodriguez on the “Inheritance” Milei […]
Javier Milei Week, Part I: Inheriting an Economic Crisis
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
When recessions hit, the US Federal Reserve lowers its target interest rate–the “federal funds interest rate.” This interest rate applies to extremely safe borrowing: essentially, to overnight borrowing by large and safe financial institutions. The idea is that by altering this ultra-safe interest rate, other riskier interest rates will also be under pressure to adjust,…
Did Negative Interest Rates Work ?
16 Mar 2026 Leave a comment
in war and peace, industrial organisation, macroeconomics, economic growth, International law, international economics, energy economics, business cycles, resource economics, defence economics Tags: Iran
By ChatGPT-5.2 If Iran’s oil exports alone stopped, the world would feel it, but it would probably be a serious price shock rather than an immediate global supply collapse. Iran has recently been exporting roughly 1.1–1.5 million barrels a day, close to its 2025 average of about 1.69 million barrels a day, with China buying more than 80% of those shipped […]
If Iran stopped exporting oil
08 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in business cycles, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
The Reserve Bank announced: “Following the completion of the review commissioned by the Board in March, we are pleased to announce modernised capital rules that will support an efficient and resilient financial system,” said Rodger Finlay, Chair of the RBNZ Board. “We recalibrated our risk appetite to have regard to our new Financial Policy Remit,…
Reserve Bank sees sense
05 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
From a forthcoming paper by Thomas Drechsel: This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political…
Political pressure on the Fed
20 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic growth, entrepreneurship, history of economic thought, macroeconomics
Has AI been propping up the American economy? For instance “the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s category for investment in information processing equipment and software accounts for over 90 percent of economic growth in the first half of 2025.” The key question is what would have been done with those resources otherwise. Regardless of their specific […]
Some simple economics of AI and macro cycles
19 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and George discuss the surprising lack of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the New Deal, whether revaluing gold was really the best path to economic reflation, how much Glass-Steagall and other individual parts of the New Deal mattered, Keynes’ “very […]
My excellent Conversation with George Selgin
14 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics
01 Oct 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, international economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: Argentina
Earlier this month, shortly after some depressing results in a regional election in Argentina, I was interviewed by Patrick Young. In this clip, I express concern Argentine voters will backslide to Peronism. As one might expect, some people are concerned the Peronist victory in the Buenos Aires regional election could be a harbinger of bad […]
Understanding Financial Instability in Argentina
29 Sep 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
The NZ Initiative has a research note out on how fiscal policy needs to work with monetary policy. They comment: This analysis does not dispute that the RBNZ’s high interest rates were the proximate cause of the downturn. However, it argues the Bank had little choice. It was confronted with the insidious threat of inflation […]
Monetary policy needs mates
28 Sep 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetary economics
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