Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
10 Apr 2025 1 Comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic growth, economics of information, economics of regulation, entrepreneurship, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), history of economic thought, industrial organisation, macroeconomics, politics - USA
Myron Scholes was on top of the world in 1997, having won the Nobel Prize in economics that year for his work in financial economics, work that he had applied in the real world in a wildly successful hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. But just one year later, LTCM was saved from collapse only […]
When Genius Failed
01 Apr 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, econometerics, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, inflation targeting, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
This was the post I was planning to write this morning to mark Orr’s final day. That said, if the underlying events – deliberate attempts to mislead Parliament – were Orr’s doing, the post is more about the apparent uselessness of Parliament (specifically the Finance and Expenditure Committee) in holding him and the rest of […]
Not much parliamentary scrutiny
10 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of education, history of economic thought, human capital, inflation targeting, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, occupational choice, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: Canada, monetary policy
Congratulations Mark Carney. When I went to the UK to study economics, we started off doing a degree called Master of Philosophy in…
My Former Economics MPhil and DPhil Class-Mate for many hard years, Mark Carney, becomes PM of Canada.
09 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (and FOMC), Ben Bernanke, was yesterday the first of two keynote speakers at the Reserve Bank’s conference to mark 35 years of inflation targeting, which first became a formalised thing here in New Zealand. He indicated that he’d be speaking about inflation targeting in general and […]
Bernanke on inflation targeting
05 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, unemployment Tags: economics of pandemics, monetary policy
Adrian Orr has resigned as Reserve Bank Governor. I normally try to highlight the good as well as the bad when someone resigns, but I have to admit in this case I struggle. I welcomed his appointment in 2017. I noted the currency rose on his appointment and that he had a very good legacy […]
Adrian Orr resigns
02 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economics of bureaucracy, economics of natural disasters, economics of regulation, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: monetary policy
Roger Partridge writes: A new submission to the Committee from banking experts Andrew Body and Simon Jensen provides fresh evidence of these costs. Their analysis shows the Reserve Bank’s capital rules add between 0.25 and 0.375 percentage points to mortgage rates compared with Australia. For a million-dollar mortgage, that means between $2,500 and $3,750 in […]
The cost of Reserve Bank regulation
01 Mar 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, Euro crisis, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, history of economic thought, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: floating exchange rates
Last year there was an interesting new book out, made up of 29 collected short papers by (more or less) prominent economists given at a 2023 conference to mark Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty. The fifty years related to the transition back to generalised floating of the major developed world currencies in 1973 (think USD, […]
Forty years of floating
11 Feb 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, Euro crisis, fiscal policy, global financial crisis (GFC), great recession, labour economics, labour supply, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, public economics Tags: Ireland, taxation and investment
I’m a big fan of Ireland’s low corporate tax rate for three reasons. First, it shows that good tax policy generates positive economic outcomes as per-capita GDP in Ireland has grown by record amounts. Second, it shows that lower tax rates can in some cases lead to more revenue. Sort of a turbo-charged version of […]
Ireland: Good Corporate Tax Policy vs. Bad Government Spending Policy
10 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, business cycles, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economics of regulation, financial economics, fiscal policy, growth disasters, growth miracles, history of economic thought, income redistribution, international economics, labour economics, law and economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, monetarism, monetary economics, political change, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking, unemployment Tags: Argentina
It’s easy to mock economists. Consider the supposedly prestigious left-leaning academics who asserted in 2021 that Biden’s agenda was not inflationary. At the risk of understatement, they wound up with egg on their faces.* Today, we’re going to look at another example of leftist economists making fools of themselves. It involves Argentina, where President Javier […]
Left-Wing Economists Were Wildly Wrong about Javier Milei and his Libertarian Agenda for Argentina
01 Jan 2025 Leave a comment
in business cycles, defence economics, economic history, economics of regulation, energy economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, war and peace Tags: Middle-East politics
Usually I am reluctant to criticize or even write about the recently departed, but perhaps for former Presidents there is greater latitude to do so. I never loved Jimmy Carter, and I saw plenty of him on TV and read about his administration on a daily basis in The New York Times. I fully appreciate […]
Some Jimmy Carter observations from the 1970s
18 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
High profile US Economist Paul Krugman has written a New York Times article in which he shows in one graph the incredible resilience and performance of the American Economy. The dark blue line below tracks the pre-pandemic long-run trend in Real GDP. Meanwhile the orange line is actual real GDP. Krugman remarks that now, in…
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman’s GDP Graph Confirms the Bottom has Fallen Out of the New Zealand Economy
08 Dec 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, economic growth, financial economics, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
The prediction of inflation dynamics—how prices change over time—has increasingly confounded modern macroeconomists. Throughout much of the twentieth century, there seemed to be clear relationships linking the money supply, economic slack, and price levels. Monetarism, the school of thought that posits a stable connection between the growth rate of a money aggregate and the subsequent […]
o1 explains why you should not dismiss Fischer Black on money and prices
30 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, liberalism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice, public economics, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
A group of economists have written to Nicola Willis complaining about the modest fiscal restraint imposed on the public sector. Grant Robertson grew government expenditure by $76 billion/year or a massive 7.6% of GDP, leaving NZ with a structural deficit. Many were champions of his policies or worked for him, and now they complain his […]
Usual suspects want more debt
14 Nov 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, industrial organisation, international economics, labour economics, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, public economics Tags: 2024 presidential election
Oliver Hartwich writes – In his victory speech, Donald Trump promised Americans a new “golden age”. While he had the numbers to win the election, the economic realities he faces will make delivering on his promise challenging. Trump’s victory reflects many Americans’ frustrations with living standards and inflation during the Biden-Harris administration. Vice President Kamala […]
Trump’s victory: Golden age or fiscal reckoning?
30 Oct 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, budget deficits, business cycles, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, energy economics, entrepreneurship, environmental economics, financial economics, fiscal policy, global warming, health economics, income redistribution, industrial organisation, law and economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA, property rights, Public Choice, public economics, rentseeking Tags: 2024 presidential election, drug lags, taxation and entrepreneurship, taxation and investment
Milton Friedman used to advise researchers to focus on large policy changes rather than attempting to separate a small change’s signal from the noise. In this sense, the “ambitious” policy agenda of the Biden-Harris administration was expected to be a gift to the research community. Accepting this gift, since 2020 I have been making forecasts…
Biden-Harris policies and their consequences were no surprise to those paying attention
Econ Prof at George Mason University, Economic Historian, Québécois
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
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