Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
28 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, unemployment Tags: monetary policy
I picked up The Post this morning to find the lead story headlined “Recession hits homes harder than businesses”, reporting a speech given earlier this week by Treasury’s deputy secretary and chief economic adviser Dominick Stephens. There was an account of the same speech, but with some different material, on BusinessDesk a couple of days […]
Treasury says one thing in a speech but quite another in the BEFU
21 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, fiscal policy, great depression, great recession, history of economic thought, job search and matching, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, monetary economics, unemployment
Edmund Phelps won the Nobel prize in economics in 2006 for “for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy.” However, he has spent a considerable chunk of this time in the last few decades musing over strengths and weaknesses of capitalism and, more generally, a dynamic economy. Jon Hartley interviews Phelps on both topics,…
Interview with Edmund Phelps: Macro and Capitalism
09 Jul 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
I was away when Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway gave his recent speech, “The road back to 2% inflation”, and since I didn’t see any material commentary on it I didn’t bother going back to it when I got home. But my son – honours student researching monetary policy (anyone wanting a young economist […]
Still avoiding responsibility
28 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice Tags: France
The RN intends to move ahead with a proposed law that states as its aim “to combat Islamist ideologies”. It includes measures to make it easier to close mosques and deport imams deemed to be radicalised, and a ban on clothing that “constitute in themselves an unequivocal and ostentatious affirmation” of Islamist ideology. Bardella said […]
What does RN stand for in the pending French election?
12 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, business cycles, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, financial economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand, Public Choice
When it comes to the question of how best to avoid a banking collapse and multi-billion dollar bailout that can drag a whole nation into depression, the best solution, according to Chicago-Stanford economist, John Cochrane, is to require banks to set aside a fraction of their own funds as reserves to cover losses they may…
Caught out! The NZ Initiative’s Article in the Herald Blaming the RBNZ for our Rip-Off Big Banks is Contradicted by its Own Expert Witness. (Willis Beware).
11 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic growth, economic history, great depression, history of economic thought, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics Tags: monetary policy
By Timothy Cogley. He was then at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1999). He is now at New York University. “In recent years, a number of economists have expressed concern that the stock market is overvalued. Some have compared the situation with the 1920s, warning that the market may be headed for a…
Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?
06 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand Tags: monetary policy
I put a range of charts on Twitter late last week illustrating why, from a macroeconomic perspective, I found the government’s Budget deeply underwhelming. I won’t repeat them but will just show two here. The first is the Treasury’s estimate of how the bit of the operating deficit not explained just by swings in the […]
Comparing Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts
02 Jun 2024 Leave a comment
in business cycles, economic history, financial economics, global financial crisis (GFC), macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - USA Tags: deposit insurance
When interest rates rise, the price of long-term assets falls. Consequently, when the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022, the value of bonds and mortgages dropped, causing significant accounting losses for banks heavily invested in these assets. Silicon Valley Bank went bust, for example, because depositors fled upon realizing it was holding lots of […]
Bailouts Forever
22 May 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, financial economics, fiscal policy, inflation targeting, macroeconomics, monetary economics
28 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, comparative institutional analysis, development economics, economic growth, economic history, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, growth disasters, income redistribution, labour economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, monetary economics, Public Choice, rentseeking, unemployment Tags: Argentina
The most important election of 2023 took place in Argentina, where that nation’s voters elected the libertarian candidate, Javier Milei, as their new president. I discussed the outlook for Milei’s agenda on a recent appearance of the Schilling Show. Here’s a brief excerpt. As you can see, I’m worried that Milei faces enormous obstacles. Argentina […]
More Good Results from Argentina
19 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, great depression, history of economic thought, labour economics, macroeconomics, monetarism, monetary economics, unemployment
12 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics
03 Apr 2024 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, business cycles, economic history, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, monetary economics, politics - New Zealand
I was away last week so have been rather late in getting to the Budget Policy Statement and associated material released last Wednesday. It does not make for pleasant reading, at least if one cares at all about governments not borrowing to pay for the groceries. Once upon a time – still not that long…
MICHAEL REDDELL: Not very bothered by deficits
24 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, budget deficits, business cycles, development economics, economic growth, financial economics, fiscal policy, growth disasters, income redistribution, international economics, macroeconomics, monetary economics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Argentina
Here is a good Substack essay by Nicolas Cachanosky, excerpt: Inflation expectations depend on what is expected to happen to the budget in the months to come. It is natural, then, to ask whether the observed surpluses are sustainable in the months ahead. Answering this question requires looking at two things. First, how was the fiscal […]
How credible is the Milei plan?
01 Mar 2024 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, business cycles, fiscal policy, history of economic thought, job search and matching, macroeconomics, monetary economics Tags: real business cycle theory
Demand shocks as technology shocks: We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which in turn increases GDP and measured TFP. We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it […]
This kind of macro theory is underrated
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