Celebrating humanity's flourishing through the spread of capitalism and the rule of law
24 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, economic history, income redistribution, labour economics, macroeconomics, politics - USA, poverty and inequality
In 2016, here’s some of what I wrote about the economic outlook in Illinois. And I shared the same observation when writing about California in 2018. There’s a somewhat famous quote from Adam Smith (“there is a great deal of ruin in a nation“) about the ability of a country to survive and withstand lots of […]
Americans Are Getting Richer, Part IV
20 Jan 2026 1 Comment
in applied price theory, development economics, economic growth, economic history, growth miracles, income redistribution, labour economics, liberalism, macroeconomics, Marxist economics, poverty and inequality, Public Choice, technological progress Tags: regressive left, The Great Enrichment
As I wrote nine years ago, Oxfam is a pathetic organization. Originally created to help the poor, it has been captured by activists who peddle class warfare. But they play that role in an incredibly sloppy fashion. In all the debates I’ve been part of over the years, no left-leaning academic has been willing to […]
Part II: Oxfam Is a Leftist Joke, not a Real Charity
20 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, industrial organisation, macroeconomics Tags: British disease
Let us hope: Britain is seeing early signs of a long-awaited turnaround of its productivity woes, according to an alternative measure that suggests output per hour worked has risen at a pace not seen since before the financial crisis. The Resolution Foundation said a “blistering” productivity surge has been masked by problems with official statistics and pointed…
Is there a British productivity comeback?
18 Jan 2026 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, industrial organisation, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality Tags: creative destruction, pessimist bias
There is a new and optimistic paper by Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt: Artificial intelligence is changing which tasks workers do and how they do them. Predicting its labor market consequences requires understanding how technical change affects workers’ productivity across tasks, how workers adapt by changing occupations and acquiring new skills, and how wages adjust…
AI, labor markets, and wages
30 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics
US economic growth can be divided into two parts: more hours worked, or more productivity per hour worked. In the past, the US labor force has been rising over time: the US labor force totaled 107 million people in 1980, 142 million in 2000, and was up to 171 million this year. However, after several…
US Growth: From Hours Worked or Productivity Gains?
27 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, Austrian economics, budget deficits, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, development economics, economic growth, economics of bureaucracy, economics of regulation, fiscal policy, growth disasters, history of economic thought, income redistribution, industrial organisation, labour economics, liberalism, libertarianism, macroeconomics, Public Choice, rentseeking, unemployment Tags: Argentina
As explained in my four-part series (here, here, here, and here) and in this clip from a recent interview, Javier Milei’s first two years have been amazingly successful. There are two points in the interview that deserve emphasis. First, Javier Milei’s libertarian policies already have been extremely beneficial for the Argentine economy. Inflation has dramatically […]
Celebrating Two Years of Libertarian Success in Argentina
19 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, applied welfare economics, comparative institutional analysis, constitutional political economy, economic growth, international economic law, international economics, macroeconomics Tags: British politics, economics of customs unions, free trade, tariffs
How we connect economically with the world is critical. Brian Easton writes – The British Labour Government is struggling. Partly it is because they were badly prepared in opposition: the Conservative Government was making such a charlie of itself that Labour expected that it would do better and gave little thought as to how it […]
Lessons from Brexit
16 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, public economics Tags: ageing society, European Union, population bust
If you want to know why I’m pessimistic about Europe (particularly compared to the U.S.), this chart is a good example. It shows that many European nations have enormous long-run liabilities for their Social Security systems. It’s an understatement to observe that Spain, Austria, and Italy have very grim fiscal futures. Keep in mind that […]
Europe’s Grim Fiscal Future
15 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, population economics, urban economics Tags: ageing society, population bust
I have a five-part series (here, here, here, here, and here) explaining that demographic decline will lead to fiscal crisis. The main takeaway is that entitlement programs are a ticking time bomb, and I castigate politicians who want to kick the can down the road (or make a bad situation even worse). This is a global problem, not merely an American problem, as […]
Demographic Decline, Part I: Baby Subsidies Are an Ineffective Response
11 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, history of economic thought, macroeconomics
The post Three Nobel lectures in economic science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Three Nobel lectures in economic science
10 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, econometerics, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, labour economics, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand
In a post last week I included this chart of the latest annual OECD data on labour productivity, expressed in PPP terms. It was grim, in a familiar sort of way. New Zealand’s overall economic performance has long been poor (the halcyon days when New Zealand was in the top 3 in the world relegated […]
Productivity growth (or lack of it)
09 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, fiscal policy, income redistribution, labour economics, labour supply, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: ageing society, Germany
A lot has happened if you look at the past 100 years of German economic policy. Hyperinflation leading to Hitler’s National Socialists taking power. An impressive free-market revival after World War II. A growing welfare state after the imposition of a value-added tax in the 1960s. Some semi-impressive spending restraint starting in the mid-1990s. Very […]
Germany’s Accelerating Fiscal and Economic Decline
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, Public Choice, public economics Tags: Switzerland, taxation and investment
Congratulations to Switzerland, the “improbable success” that is home to the world’s most sensible voters. The left put a referendum on the ballot to impose a national death tax and the people of Switzerland overwhelmingly voted against the class warfare initiative. Every single canton in every single region voted no. More than 90 percent of […]
The Sensible Swiss Strike Again, Overwhelmingly Rejecting Class Warfare
03 Dec 2025 Leave a comment
in budget deficits, economic growth, economic history, financial economics, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, population economics, public economics Tags: ageing society, Japan, population bust
I often get asked when the United States will suffer a Greek-style fiscal crisis. My answer is always “I don’t know,” though I freely admit we are heading in that direction. My lack of specificity isn’t merely because economists are lousy forecasters. I tell people it’s all about investor sentiment, and it’s hard to know […]
Japan’s Growing Burden of Government Means an Inevitable Fiscal Crisis
27 Nov 2025 Leave a comment
in applied price theory, economic growth, fiscal policy, macroeconomics, politics - New Zealand, public economics Tags: taxation and investment
I’ve never really been persuaded that it is a good idea for public servants to be giving speeches, unless perhaps they are simply and explicitly explaining or articulating government policy. If they are, instead, purporting to run their own views or those of their agency it is almost inevitable that we will be getting less […]
Treasury on tax
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